The Next Slum? Atlantic Magazine article on future development trends (Denver: mortgage, environment)

[WestCoDude]

Originally Posted by jazzlover

High fuel prices AND scarcity will rob the suburbs of their lifeblood--autos and gasoline. They WILL be the next slums. As to the comment about people wanting big houses for their families--well, wanting and affording are two very different things. People forget that not even 50 or so years ago, family sizes were larger, and a typical middle class family of 2 adults and 3 or more children lived in 1,100 to 1,200 square foot homes (if they were lucky) on small lots. The family generally had one automobile, one TV (again, if they were lucky), and one telephone. What most people would have considered a mansion back then would be considered little more than an "average-size" house today. Of course, back then, people embraced the old-fashioned concept of living within their means. Since then, we have paid for suburbia by having both spouses in the household HAVE TO WORK, having the average family nearly hopelessly in debt, having the national government itself running huge deficits, and having the net national savings rate near zero. Not to mention consuming a good chunk of the nation's domestic reserves of oil, natural gas, and other critical resources in a little more than two generations.

It's real simple: Suburbia is going to die because we can't afford it any longer. End of story.

I think there's very little evidence of this happening. If you build it...they WILL come. Businesses are moving out to the suburbs and the new subdivisions are following. The size of lots might decrease eventually--though, again, there's no sign of that happening--but suburbia will likely continue to remain quite strong for the forseeable future.

[WestCoDude]

Originally Posted by denverian

Well, until gas hits $6 or $7 per gallon. Then you're going to see suburbs change by necessity. Plenty of people raise kids in the city, and it doesn't require an acre of grass to raise a kid. We're soon to be raising two boys and our yard is tiny - not even big enough for a swingset. But we have nearby parks with play equipment and open space.

There's also no denying that these "cheap suburbs" with ugly houses a very well may be America's next ghettos. You can already see it happening in parts of Denver.

I think comparing urban Denver to urban St. Louis is apples to oranges. Urban Denver is very desireable and we don't have the decay of St. Louis, or crime, etc. Not to say there aren't beautiful parts of STL I wouldn't love to live in, but overall, I think people in Denver has a more positive view of the inner city.

For suburbs to survive, they're going to need to be connected to the city via mass transit and created in more walkable ways, like villages with town centers near homes. No more acre lots either.

Absolutely. Yeah...I don't mean to compare urban Denver with urban St. Louis. There's no comparison. My point is just that families are effectively priced out of downtown Denver and there's no incentive for growing, young families to do anything BUT move out to the 'burbs. That's just as true in Denver as it is in St. Louis. You can't build a city like Hickenlooper is trying to do by flashing new art developments and elite high-rises. That will give you an over-priced, exclusive, and, frankly, for most of us, unliveable city.

I think what you'll see in the future is suburbs becoming increasingly disconnected for the core city. For example, my suburb of Chesterfield has essentially created its own hub of economic activity so it is becoming it's own core city. It's creating a pole of sorts with St. Louis on the one hand and Chesterfield on the other. And when you've got young, wealthy, safe, clean Chesterfield on the one hand and St. Louis on the other--who do you think wins out?

Denver's seeing the same phenomenon. Highlands Ranch was designed as its own self-contained suburb--and as businesses move to the south suburban region, it will allow people to really never leave HR if that's what they choose. Aurora is going for the same effect by it looks like it might even be working. Belmar...same story. Suburban cities are trying to become even more independent so that the plight of the urban core city doesn't mean a whole lot.

Fastracks was designed to fight this trend away from multi-municipal cooperation. And it might work. But the future lies in metro areas dotted with several "poles" or what you call "villages." Where people can live, work, and play in their own suburb. Like it or not, Highlands Ranch and Aurora are the future. And Hickenlooper's Art City will thrive and prosper to a point--and that point is where nobody seriously can afford it and you'll see the city collapse on itself as businesses flee to avoid paying the extra taxes Denver will need.

[oberon]

WestCoDude, are you aware that the museums, stadiums, etc. in Denver are funded by the entire metro area? You're not going to escape those sales taxes by moving to Highlands Ranch. You'd have to move all the way south to Castle Rock.

As for FasTracks, part of the whole point of it is to distribute the employment centers, as well as increase residential density around the metro area, which distributes traffic more efficiently. This is a process that has been occurring for some time now. Who says the jobs are only in the south or downtown? Look at Interlocken and Boulder. There will be more large employment centers in the future, and FasTracks will help facilitate their existence.

[steveindenver]

I think there's very little evidence of this happening. If you build it...they WILL come.

There is plenty of evidence that this is happening. The further away you are from the core of Denver the steeper the price cuts have been and the longer inventory remains on the market. This is also true near you in Ofallon Missouri; I know of new neighborhoods were homes have gone straight into forclosure from the builder. Entire blocks left partially finished or vacant. Building it is only part of the equation.

The size of lots might decrease eventually--though, again, there's no sign of that happening--but suburbia will likely continue to remain quite strong for the forseeable future.

In St Louis? Sure, there are few other options as the core of the city is simply rotten. I thought I read Schnucks was building the first new supermarket in downtown proper in something like 30 years. A sad state of affairs and now with 40 closed down and the city unwilling to repeal their 1 percent income taxation on all those who work downtown I just don't see anyway out of it.

In Denver? No, there is plenty of space in Denver proper to address everything from low income government assistance up through and into the millions of dollars in housing. All within the boundaries of a solid mass transit system. Likewise companies have not and do not appear to be fleeing the urban center for the reasons mentioned above.

[Katiana]

The main employment centers for IT in metro Denver seem to be: DTC, outside the city; downtown Denver; and the Broomfield/Boulder corridor; outside the city. This has been the case here for decades.

I do not follow real estate closely, as I have no intention of selling my house in the near future. But from what I do see, the homes in my area and indeed all of southern Boulder County have not decreased in price. I have seen times when the increases were almost overnight, and I have seen slower times, like now. It seems the problems are in the very far-out areas, such as Weld Co. some parts of Adams Co, and some outlying areas down south. The close-in suburbs (defined loosely as Louisville is 25 miles from downtown) are doing OK.

[bhcompy]

Originally Posted by steveindenver

There is plenty of evidence that this is happening. The further away you are from the core of Denver the steeper the price cuts have been and the longer inventory remains on the market. This is also true near you in Ofallon Missouri; I know of new neighborhoods were homes have gone straight into forclosure from the builder. Entire blocks left partially finished or vacant. Building it is only part of the equation.

that has nothing to do with suburbanization and everything to do with the nationwide housing bubble bursting because credit was too cheap, lenders were too loose, and prices were too high. crashes happen during every bubble. also, suburban housing prices are much more fluid than urban housing prices lately because of the higher demand for suburban housing, so when a crash happens they have the farthest to fall because higher demand becomes low demand compared to less demand for an urban property becoming low as well

[Spiderplant]

I find this article really true!! I can already see this happening to my neighborhood! Great Great article

[steveindenver]

also, suburban housing prices are much more fluid than urban housing prices lately because of the higher demand for suburban housing

Not in Denver. Urban prices in Denver have remained in comparison solid (and also inflated during the run up) wheras suburban prices continue to plummet.

[bhcompy]

because urban prices are more realistic due to them being in urban settings(meaning that property values are held down by the setting, urban settings are less desireable to a larger group of people willing to spend money). property values are relative on various scales, just like any other commodity values. its really apples and oranges comparing urban housing to suburban housing because they are dramatically different and appeal to dramatically different people

a 900sqft condo in manhattan may be worth 1million to a single corporate attorney working for companies in the area while a family with a few children and a dog would consider that absurd but may think a 2500 sqft house with a large yard would be worth the same amt of money. gentrification of inner cities(like the older downtown los angeles district) has benefited from young single or married with out children willing to spend to live in the business centers because they have no needs to take them out of it. that setup, more often than not, doesnt work for a family, which is why suburbia has existed at least since the levitt towns of the 50s like my hometown, Lakewood, CA. everything is relative, what is important to YOU may not be important to ME.

[Katiana]

I wouldn't say prices in Boulder County, any part of it, not just Boulder, are plummeting.