The Next Slum? Atlantic Magazine article on future development trends (Denver: real estate, housing)

[vegaspilgrim]

Originally Posted by tfox

Problem is, Central Denver has already become an address largely for the well-to-do, and this trend has accelerated considerably even in the past five years. While renting in Central Denver is a lot more accessible than homeownership, that is likely to change as well, as the more run-down rentals become sites for scrape-offs as properties change hands.

[...]

It's actually a good thing, if you ask me. The last thing we need is Central Denver being a Boulder-like elitist playground surrounded by a ring of suburban decay just over Denver's city limits. Yes, that's exactly what's happening now, and that decay has happened and is happening, but my gut says that it's temporary blip that's already changing.

I totally agree, tfox. Excellent post! What you describe about Boulder is very true, and that's the number one reason I don't like Boulder-- it really does feel like an "elitist playground." In my opinion, one of the most real, down to earth, diverse, and interesting parts of the Denver metro area, yet "undiscovered" by the urban elitists is the whole Leetsdale/Parker Rd/CO-83 corridor from Alameda in Glendale to Aurora, about to the point where it intersects with 225, and maybe even a little beyond to Quincy. A lot of old strip malls, visually unattractive, not walkable, but chock full of great food and businesses. On that stretch of road you'll pass through the heart of Denver's Jewish community, Greek Orthodox community, Islamic community and all ethnic groups you can name: Russian, Ukranian, Korean, Indian, Middle Eastern, Ethiopian, Vietnamese, Mexican... you name it. A lot of long standing Denver traditions, old bars like the Four Mile House, the Emerald Isle, Colorado Ski and Golf, Bike Village, etc. It's an interesting grab bag of stuff along that stretch of road.

In my opinion, that kind of diversity, interesting stuff, and local character is what being a big city is all about-- and it's exemplified most in the inner suburbs. Funny, I can't think of too many Korean restaurants, mosques, and Russian bookstores in Boulder, Washington Park, or in new urbanist communities. Why? Because they aren't there! The visually attractive settings are just plain too expensive for the lower income businesses to set up shop-- the types of establishments that make a city real and down to earth.

[Katiana]

Originally Posted by denverian

I think it's interesting how cities change over time - and try to predict how they'll change next. Who'd have guessed those "ugly '50s modern houses" (as my mom used to call them) would become "mid-century modern" and a hot item? Maybe the '70s tri-level will be the hot trend of the 2030s where people "restore the original popcorn ceilings".

LOL! We had a 70s tri-level. It was our first house. It got a lot of TLC from us. No popcorn ceiling, though. My mom called the 50s-60s ranches "cracker boxes", which in our area, many were. Many were built on slabs w/o basements, most had only one bathroom, and no place to put another one (other than outside, lol), etc. It's amazing to me, to read here on City-Data, that people think these are the greatest. To each his own, I guess.

Originally Posted by vegaspilgrim

I totally agree, tfox. Excellent post! What you describe about Boulder is very true, and that's the number one reason I don't like Boulder-- it really does feel like an "elitist playground." In my opinion, one of the most real, down to earth, diverse, and interesting parts of the Denver metro area, yet "undiscovered" by the urban elitists is the whole Leetsdale/Parker Rd/CO-83 corridor from Alameda in Glendale to Aurora, about to the point where it intersects with 225, and maybe even a little beyond to Quincy. A lot of old strip malls, visually unattractive, not walkable, but chock full of great food and businesses. On that stretch of road you'll pass through the heart of Denver's Jewish community, Greek Orthodox community, Islamic community and all ethnic groups you can name: Russian, Ukranian, Korean, Indian, Middle Eastern, Ethiopian, Vietnamese, Mexican... you name it. A lot of long standing Denver traditions, old bars like the Four Mile House, the Emerald Isle, Colorado Ski and Golf, Bike Village, etc. It's an interesting grab bag of stuff along that stretch of road.

In my opinion, that kind of diversity, interesting stuff, and local character is what being a big city is all about-- and it's exemplified most in the inner suburbs. Funny, I can't think of too many Korean restaurants, mosques, and Russian bookstores in Boulder, Washington Park, or in new urbanist communities. Why? Because they aren't there! The visually attractive settings are just plain too expensive for the lower income businesses to set up shop-- the types of establishments that make a city real and down to earth.

I agree. Good post.

[denverian]

Originally Posted by vegaspilgrim

I totally agree, tfox. Excellent post! What you describe about Boulder is very true, and that's the number one reason I don't like Boulder-- it really does feel like an "elitist playground." In my opinion, one of the most real, down to earth, diverse, and interesting parts of the Denver metro area, yet "undiscovered" by the urban elitists is the whole Leetsdale/Parker Rd/CO-83 corridor from Alameda in Glendale to Aurora, about to the point where it intersects with 225, and maybe even a little beyond to Quincy. A lot of old strip malls, visually unattractive, not walkable, but chock full of great food and businesses. On that stretch of road you'll pass through the heart of Denver's Jewish community, Greek Orthodox community, Islamic community and all ethnic groups you can name: Russian, Ukranian, Korean, Indian, Middle Eastern, Ethiopian, Vietnamese, Mexican... you name it. A lot of long standing Denver traditions, old bars like the Four Mile House, the Emerald Isle, Colorado Ski and Golf, Bike Village, etc. It's an interesting grab bag of stuff along that stretch of road.

In my opinion, that kind of diversity, interesting stuff, and local character is what being a big city is all about-- and it's exemplified most in the inner suburbs. Funny, I can't think of too many Korean restaurants, mosques, and Russian bookstores in Boulder, Washington Park, or in new urbanist communities. Why? Because they aren't there! The visually attractive settings are just plain too expensive for the lower income businesses to set up shop-- the types of establishments that make a city real and down to earth.

Give Stapleton 40 years and it'll be a whole different place!

Interesting, the diversity you point out along Parker Rd. I've noticed that before and wondered how it happened. You just can't recreate things like that.

[steveindenver]

The visually attractive settings are just plain too expensive for the lower income businesses to set up shop-- the types of establishments that make a city real and down to earth.

You just described Colfax.

can't think of too many Korean restaurants, mosques, and Russian bookstores in Boulder, Washington Park, or in new urbanist communities.

These things are all realated in that they are generally targeted at an ethnic community; guess where you find them? Right, where that targeted community lives.

One thing I noticed in St. Louis when recently doing research, there are neighborhoods near downtown where almost all of the houses have been torn down (from what I 've heard they were very old in in such disrepair, they couldn't be salvaged) leaving nothing but streets and grass. Like a growing cancer on the city.

I was driving down Page Blvd and then MLK in downtown St Louis not long ago, blocks and blocks of no houses or one maybe two houses left standing for the entire block in what was once an exceptionally beautiful part of the city.

There still are some neat areas, the gas light district around the brewery holds my fancy as do some of the not quite downtown-downtown areas (Clayton, The Loop, Kirkwood).

[DenverAztec]

Originally Posted by vegaspilgrim

I totally agree, tfox. Excellent post! What you describe about Boulder is very true, and that's the number one reason I don't like Boulder-- it really does feel like an "elitist playground." In my opinion, one of the most real, down to earth, diverse, and interesting parts of the Denver metro area, yet "undiscovered" by the urban elitists is the whole Leetsdale/Parker Rd/CO-83 corridor from Alameda in Glendale to Aurora, about to the point where it intersects with 225, and maybe even a little beyond to Quincy. A lot of old strip malls, visually unattractive, not walkable, but chock full of great food and businesses. On that stretch of road you'll pass through the heart of Denver's Jewish community, Greek Orthodox community, Islamic community and all ethnic groups you can name: Russian, Ukranian, Korean, Indian, Middle Eastern, Ethiopian, Vietnamese, Mexican... you name it. A lot of long standing Denver traditions, old bars like the Four Mile House, the Emerald Isle, Colorado Ski and Golf, Bike Village, etc. It's an interesting grab bag of stuff along that stretch of road.

In my opinion, that kind of diversity, interesting stuff, and local character is what being a big city is all about-- and it's exemplified most in the inner suburbs. Funny, I can't think of too many Korean restaurants, mosques, and Russian bookstores in Boulder, Washington Park, or in new urbanist communities. Why? Because they aren't there! The visually attractive settings are just plain too expensive for the lower income businesses to set up shop-- the types of establishments that make a city real and down to earth.

Russian Jews and Ethiopians are the largest concentration of immigrants moving here from other continents. Hill Top/Glendale/Unincorporated Arapahoe County and Aurora are really where they are choosing to live, and it is along the Leestdale/Parker Road corridor. Sadly, it has been discovered and rents are going up on those small business. Whisper Sky and The Breakers are examples of what is moving in. This week alone, the lot across from the Islamic Center was raised, two homes built in the 50s are sitting in the middle of a enormous fenced off area. A whole complex is about to be built. So called affordable residential structures are to be developed.

I have said before, downtown is full of Millennials and they will eventually find mates and head for the burbs to raise their kids. But with areas like the Highlands and Wash Park, they won't have to as these areas have yards and decent schools. Residential life downtown works for those who like their creature comforts close by, but don't have kids. The demand to live there will slow as the prices are too high and only getting worse, so there will always be a demand for suburbs.

[denverian]

Originally Posted by steveindenver

You just described Colfax.


These things are all realated in that they are generally targeted at an ethnic community; guess where you find them? Right, where that targeted community lives.


I was driving down Page Blvd and then MLK in downtown St Louis not long ago, blocks and blocks of no houses or one maybe two houses left standing for the entire block in what was once an exceptionally beautiful part of the city.

There still are some neat areas, the gas light district around the brewery holds my fancy as do some of the not quite downtown-downtown areas (Clayton, The Loop, Kirkwood).

STL has some beautiful architecture and row homes. Even though it has its problems, I can't help but love it! It's much more "East Coast" than other Midwestern cities.

[tfox]

Originally Posted by WestCoDude

Yeah...I'm not buying it. As long as people continue to have kids--and, by all indications, it looks like they will, lol--they're going to seek out bigger homes and lots to grow their families. Suburbia is tailor made for the American Dream and people will continue to sacrifice convience and shelling out big bucks for gas....so long as they can keep their families in a good area and good home. If you look at the people moving into areas like Belmar and Lodo....it's older, retired people and young people after college. I guarantee that the moment they start making a family...they're outta there and into the 'burbs.

Well, that's not actually true. It's true that there's not a lot of kids in, say, Capitol Hill, but move on to Wash Park or Highlands, and you see *lots* of kids, with more every day. And let's not forget about Stapleton and Lowry -- those neighborhoods are loaded with kids. I don't see a lot of high school kids around there, but they're surely coming as the kids get older.

That's not to deny that the majority of families with kids live in the suburbs, but I haven't seen any evidence that couples who already live in the city rushing to leave once they have kids. Some do, but most try their best to stay put.

Originally Posted by WestCoDude

As Joel Kotkin has pointed out, most cities are being polar in nature....where there's a lot of economic and residential development downtown...but more and more businesses continue to move out to the 'burbs. Notice how Aurora and Lakewood and picking up the hospitals leaving Denver. You'll continue to see movement from high tax cities to low tax, family-friendly suburbs. It's definitely happened here in St. Louis where the nicer 'burbs are becoming downtowns in and of themselves. The city just isn't all that attractive for teh vast majority of Americans.

Of course, there has been some movement of businesses to the suburbs, but Downtown Denver still has by far the largest concentration of jobs in the Intermountain West, and it's simply irreplaceable in terms of an economic engine. Even as some businesses move to the suburbs (for example, the hospitals), others continue to move into downtown Denver, which has the lowest commercial vacancy rate in the state and tenants are crying for additional office space.

Also, it's simply not true that the suburbs are "low tax." Denver county's has the lowest property taxes in the metro area, and its sales taxes are competitive if not the lowest (it also doesn't tax groceries compared to the suburbs that mostly do). Denver does have head tax, an attempt to get a bit of taxes from commuters from the suburbs, but it's quite small. It's a fact that Denver residents have the lowest tax burden in the metro area. Denver's large tax base ensures fiscal security that avoids the need to have to implement high taxes.

[jazzlover]

Originally Posted by WestCoDude

Yeah...I'm not buying it. As long as people continue to have kids--and, by all indications, it looks like they will, lol--they're going to seek out bigger homes and lots to grow their families. Suburbia is tailor made for the American Dream and people will continue to sacrifice convience and shelling out big bucks for gas....so long as they can keep their families in a good area and good home. If you look at the people moving into areas like Belmar and Lodo....it's older, retired people and young people after college. I guarantee that the moment they start making a family...they're outta there and into the 'burbs.

As Joel Kotkin has pointed out, most cities are being polar in nature....where there's a lot of economic and residential development downtown...but more and more businesses continue to move out to the 'burbs. Notice how Aurora and Lakewood and picking up the hospitals leaving Denver. You'll continue to see movement from high tax cities to low tax, family-friendly suburbs. It's definitely happened here in St. Louis where the nicer 'burbs are becoming downtowns in and of themselves. The city just isn't all that attractive for teh vast majority of Americans.

There is only so much appeal to the sex in the city lifestyle...most people, deep down, just want a nice place to raise their kids. And that will continue to be the suburbs.

High fuel prices AND scarcity will rob the suburbs of their lifeblood--autos and gasoline. They WILL be the next slums. As to the comment about people wanting big houses for their families--well, wanting and affording are two very different things. People forget that not even 50 or so years ago, family sizes were larger, and a typical middle class family of 2 adults and 3 or more children lived in 1,100 to 1,200 square foot homes (if they were lucky) on small lots. The family generally had one automobile, one TV (again, if they were lucky), and one telephone. What most people would have considered a mansion back then would be considered little more than an "average-size" house today. Of course, back then, people embraced the old-fashioned concept of living within their means. Since then, we have paid for suburbia by having both spouses in the household HAVE TO WORK, having the average family nearly hopelessly in debt, having the national government itself running huge deficits, and having the net national savings rate near zero. Not to mention consuming a good chunk of the nation's domestic reserves of oil, natural gas, and other critical resources in a little more than two generations.

It's real simple: Suburbia is going to die because we can't afford it any longer. End of story.

[bhcompy]

its an opinion, not a fact. factors point each way, but history shows that suburbia will always exist due to growth. the only change is that areas that were once suburbia become less so over time as new suburbias are developed

[Biopace]

Originally Posted by Katiana

Aside from Weld County, which markets are really hurting? Just curious.

Aside from Weld and Adams county, a quick check on the MLS shows quite a few McMansions in Piney Creek, Saddle Rock and Tallyn's Reach (80016) that are hurting. There are quite a few homes selling for 35-50% less than they were purchased for in 2005/2006. Just a couple examples - one home in Saddle Rock (7,000 sq/ft) that was purchased for $920,000 in 2006 is on the market for $665,000. There is also a house in Tallyn's Reach that was purchased for over a million, listed for $559,000. Castle Rock (even Bell Mountain Ranch) shows some big hits as well.