Denver's future growth Eastward (Colorado Springs, Aurora: how much, buying a home, buying)

[patrickmich]

In terms of the metro area's growth, which directions do you foresee
growth continuing? I don't think there is any doubt that the growth
will continue North, and one day Fort Collins and Denver will be a part
of a megatropolis. However, I am not all that familar with Denver and
its terrain. Is it likely that the metro area will also continue growing South
towards Colorado Springs? The direction of growth I am most intersted in is
towards the East. If one goes to the outskirts of the new development
towards the East, it becomes much less crowded, and more relaxing.
But I wonder how much demand there is to go further out onto the plains.
I suppose many people move to Denver for the mountains, and perhaps
the mountain recreation. So maybe they're not interested in moving further east of the city.
I can go out to a town called Strasburg about 20 miles
east of the metro area, and find new houses in the low 100s. Strasburg does not appear to be in much demand at this point. Do you think eventually
the Denver metro growth will extend to Strasburg and beyond?
Thanks

[vegaspilgrim]

Growth east might occur in terms of semi-rural large lot developments. This has already been happening SE of the city in eastern Douglas County and northwestern Elbert County, because in that area you're in the fringes of the Black Forest with pine trees, so it's a very desirable and scenic area. Directly east of Denver, I don't see much packed-in suburban subdivision growth happening beyond the immediate E-470 corridor, which will certainly continue to fill in as time goes on. The further east you go, the harsher the climate gets, more risk of tornadoes, farther from everything, etc. Eventually you get to a point when you can't even see the mountains anymore-- then you might as well just live in Kansas. Although the city of Aurora does have land annexed WAY out there in the middle of nowhere, so you never know.

[oberon]

I think bedroom communities some distance outside the metro area will continue to grow. But the metro area's current geographical limits will remain about the same for the next 20 years. Why?

Read this: DRCOG - Metro Vision (http://www.drcog.org/index.cfm?page=MetroVision2020 - broken link)

[patrickmich]

thanks for your thoughts. Makes sense.

[Count David]

Originally Posted by vegaspilgrim

Eventually you get to a point when you can't even see the mountains anymore-- then you might as well just live in Kansas.

If I remember correctly, you can see the mountains from as far east (on I-70) as Limon, if not further. That's a good at least 70 miles away, and of course on a clear day.

[tfox]

The thing that will limit growth to the east is the former Lowry Bombing Range, which starts several miles east of E-470, and is several miles south of I-70/Colfax. Part of the Lowry Bombing Range is going to be cleaned up of ordnance, etc and redeveloped, but about 90% of it will be open space. The part that will be developed will be that part of the Lowry range immediately adjacent to development already occurring in southeast Aurora (in other words, the southwest corner of the bombing range). That will essentially put a stop to growth due east of Denver, though growth will likely continue around Aurora Reservoir to the southeast, and also north of I-70 as well.

As for the south of Denver (Douglas County), construction will continue here and there, but the big limiting factor there is Greenland Ranch and Spruce Mountain, all of which is open space. That means that most of the undeveloped land in Douglas County south of Castle Rock is essentially undevelopable until you hit Monument, (about 15 miles worth). Of course, there is some pre-existing large-lots around Larkspur that will always continue to be there, and some of the southeastern parts of the county may have some growth potential as horse properties similar to what you see in Elbert. Regardless, Douglas County will probably reach virtual build-out stage in the not too distant future, so that it will be more like Jefferson County is today, with small pockets of development but largely mature.

Weld County is really where the growth will occur in the next few decades. You have a county that is enthusiastically pro-growth, little existing open space already, county government mostly uninterested in acquiring new open space, very little red tape in development, and agricultural land that already has water rights packaged with it. The present housing crisis will temporarily put a halt to growth there, but once we're through this recession, that's where the growth is going to be.

[patrickmich]

Yes the area NE of Denver, Weld county, does seem to have a lot of growth potential.
People are drawn to the lower taxes of Weld county. Houses are still affordable in places
like Firestone and Brighton, if this is in fact the area you are referring to in you post (Tfox). My impression is that people don't necessarily like this area, though. Probably because it is treeless and brown. Personally I don't care about that. I just want to have openness around me. I could not live in the West metro area because it would feel a bit claustrophobic. I did not know about the bombing range. This is a huge bit of information that I will look into. Buying a home on the outskirts of the East metro,
butting up against a natural area sounds appealing to me. Although I would want to live along the I-70 corridor (east of denver) and it sounds like the bombing range is South of the freeway, right?

[Dreaming of Hawaii]

Go east on I-70 and you will come to Watkins, then Bennett, then Strasberg. They are all experiencing growth. New subdivisions being built and many many new ones on the drawing board just waiting for the economy to turn around. Bennett already has a new King Soopers that is exceeding the profit projections. I can get to Bennett in about 45 minutes from downtown during non-rush hour. Lots of wide open spaces out there, but no trees.

One of the problems with Weld County is all of the oil and gas wells. They actually build subdivisions around them and some even try to count the non-buildable area as "open space".

[patrickmich]

I don't mind oil and gas wells. It is a sign of industry and capitalism, which is inspiring in and of itself. Aren't oil and gas wells temporary fixtures, or do they remain in the same
drillling position for a long time? That's good to hear that King Soopers is profiting in
Bennet. How do you know this? I think life would be a lot less stressful out there
than it would be trying to get home after work if you lived in the far south metro area, for example. I am mostly worried about quality of housing in these new subdivisions to the east. how am I supposed to know if a new house out there is being built with quality materials, or if they are using crap?

[tfox]

Actually, turns out I gave some wrong info on the Lowry bombing range development plans. Here's the real story: the protected part of the range is going to be between Quincy and County Line Road (that's six miles north to south), starting at the eastern shore of the present Aurora Reservoir headed east about seven miles (that's a total of about 42 square miles, though I think there's a chunk north of quincy that's also protected, pushing the total higher). The part that will be redeveloped will actually be the northwest part of the range (I told you the southwest part; that was inaccurate), between Quincy and Yale, about three square miles worth, with another square mile in reserve.
3 square miles is still, of course, a gigantic area of land for development. Too much, if you ask me, but we can look at it glass-half-full or glass-half-empty -- let's say glass half full and think of the 42+ square miles that got protected.

It also is considerably further south from I-70, since the bombing range never extends past Jewel, which is four miles south of I-70. So, the bombing range is quite a distance south of towns like Watkins.