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Old 10-24-2017, 10:12 PM
 
20,836 posts, read 39,041,284 times
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Here's a piece in the WaPo tonight that's both hilarious and distressing at the same time....

Excerpt: "Locating HQ2 in Washington would immediately give you the most overeducated and underemployed workforce in the world: the 535 members of the U.S. Congress. They barely work two days a week, and in the past 10 months have produced nothing of importance. They would be better used writing product descriptions, processing orders, etc. for Amazon. I only suggest that you donít put them in charge of finances."
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Old 10-25-2017, 10:13 AM
 
Location: In The Thin Air
12,244 posts, read 8,029,930 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
Here's a piece in the WaPo tonight that's both hilarious and distressing at the same time....

Excerpt: "Locating HQ2 in Washington would immediately give you the most overeducated and underemployed workforce in the world: the 535 members of the U.S. Congress. They barely work two days a week, and in the past 10 months have produced nothing of importance. They would be better used writing product descriptions, processing orders, etc. for Amazon. I only suggest that you donít put them in charge of finances."
Sad state our government is in.
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Old 10-25-2017, 11:01 AM
 
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With the stock market so jittery, and today being a down day despite mostly good earnings news, I have to wonder what will happen to HQ2 if we do hit a recession, my best guess is it will be put on hold or go forward very slowly.
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Old 10-25-2017, 07:31 PM
 
Location: The North
5,070 posts, read 9,059,444 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
With the stock market so jittery, and today being a down day despite mostly good earnings news, I have to wonder what will happen to HQ2 if we do hit a recession, my best guess is it will be put on hold or go forward very slowly.
Once they figure out how to place everyone they will shift workers to the new HQ because it seems likely it will be a lower cost option than trying to make it work in Seattle. It will become the back office if people want to think of it that way or the business resumption insurance policy should an earthquake, volcano or tsunami impact Seattle enough to cause a problem. Those with real ambition and desire will want to be in Seattle despite it all, similar to how people want to be in LA, NYC or Silicon Valley because of the ecosystem of opportunities. Those not willing to make that kind of sacrifice will be happy in HQ2 and it will be seen as the less intense, more work life balanced place where you earn a decent living but don't become a multi-millionaire. This all is exactly what Amazon needs to balance things out and execute on their many ideas, which will come out of Seattle but be made into real profitable operations in HQ2.

All these suggest to me not only is a recession not going to slow them down, it might actually make them want to accelerate this particular effort.
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Old 10-25-2017, 11:13 PM
 
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Earthquake maybe. Tsunami only on narrow shorelines, and certainly not at their major offices. Volcano no chance...Mt. Rainier is 50 miles away and even its rivers come nowhere near.
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Old 10-26-2017, 10:56 AM
 
2,227 posts, read 1,669,043 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
Memphis gives them access to FEDEX main hub from which they could cram stuff into planes for orders placed late in the date or early evening. IBM has a large warehouse there just for the purpose of getting high priority items out the door as late as 10PM and in your hands by 10AM the next day.
What people outside of Memphis don't understand is that FedEx is a monopoly that hurts Memphis just as much as it helps Memphis. There is NO WAY FedEx CEO Fred Smith is going to let Amazon or any other major company relocate to Memphis, move in on his territory, and force him to have to pay his employees competitive wages and benefits. That's why Memphis' economy is so depressed and one-note and why its job market is so terrible now.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Josseppie View Post
The NY times picked Denver. Even me from pueblo hopes its Denver as that will help the entire state as companies that serve Amazon move close to the Denver area.

From the NY Times:

So Denver it is. The cityís lifestyle and affordability
...and all of that will be out the window with no hopes of ever returning to normal, if a huge company like Amazon moves to Denver and brings all of those employees there.

Last edited by Mike from back east; 10-26-2017 at 11:27 AM.. Reason: Merged 2:1
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Old 10-26-2017, 04:08 PM
 
Location: The North
5,070 posts, read 9,059,444 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mentallect View Post
...and all of that will be out the window with no hopes of ever returning to normal, if a huge company like Amazon moves to Denver and brings all of those employees there.
How many employees do you think will be "brought" versus just locally sourced? If they start up with 5,000 employees and expand to 50,000 over decades they could do something like transfer out 1,000-1,500 to start and source the rest locally with occasional transfers over the years . An initial hiring of 3,500-4,000 over probably 12-18 months may impact some other businesses around, but nothing that the market couldn't handle. The area already gets hundreds of new transplants a month as it is, this could be absorbed without too much difficulty.

It would be easy to blame Amazon for growth related issues, but reality is that would be just overlooking that growth is continuing and the normal "signals" to deter new residents such as housing costs and traffic don't seem to be working much yet. In time they always do and as things are moving Denver/Boulder will eventually have the characteristics of a much higher value metro area, which means those who do move in the future will be higher income and be willing to pay higher rents and those who leave will be the opposite end of the spectrum. I think its foolish to say a place is becoming the Bay Area or New York City, for example, because quite clearly every place has a different history and culture. But if a city moves up the value chain in this manner then it can have an economy and job market closer to those metros than the company Denver has kept in its more recent past.

This means winners and losers of course, but its a much more accurate view of what's been happening recently and has happened in a lot of metro areas. The key takeaway is that metro areas rarely regress. They can stagnate or slip slightly, but a high value metro doesn't really go back down two notches, at least it hasn't been seen among larger areas with any level of diversification. Even Detroit, which everyone wants to call out as a mess, hasn't seen it if you include the entire metro area. There is no real loss of wealth and housing prices outside of the city haven't really changed on a percentage of income basis. Those with money just moved to the suburbs, while those with lower income prospects often left the area for good which has the effect of raising the value of a metro area.

So for those wishing and hoping Denver prices are a bubble and will collapse to a past level, best of luck with that forecast. And if "normal" is to keep the same economy and job market of the past or even present, whether Amazon comes or not, its just not going to happen.
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Old 10-26-2017, 06:54 PM
 
2,072 posts, read 1,810,897 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Willy702 View Post
How many employees do you think will be "brought" versus just locally sourced?
Most of the 50k will be new hires who move here or local.
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Old 10-27-2017, 07:37 AM
 
Location: Colorado Springs
3,042 posts, read 2,074,722 times
Reputation: 3531
Denver has a natural growth rate this century that average around 13% per decade. That means around 2700 people a month are moving into the Denver metro without Amazon being here.
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Old 10-28-2017, 12:03 AM
 
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How do you get that from a single growth rate?

People also move out, and there's growth from births over deaths. The number moving in is just a component.
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