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Old 03-08-2018, 09:36 PM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
2,567 posts, read 1,829,666 times
Reputation: 2672

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timmyy View Post
For those that believe we are in a bubble that is getting ready to burst I present you with this article.

https://yourcastle.com/denver-real-estate-bubble/

I don't think it will ever burst but I do believe values will eventually level off here or even drop a little. I believe we will see a couple more years of growth before it slows down.
Wait, you're citing a link to an article written by a real estate broker? Don't you think they're a little biased since they're realtors? I wouldn't trust their analysis.

I was in Denver last week and heard on talk radio KOA that wages in Denver have NOT kept up with the rising housing costs there. They said the average family would need to have a minimum of 70K down payment and decent salaries (can't remember the salary necessary.)

While I agree it's a nice town and has a bright employment picture, I don't see what justifies the inflated housing prices.

Someone mentioned Seattle and how it's housing costs have skyrocketed over the decade, suggesting Denver will follow a similar appreciation curve in years to come. One difference I see between Seattle metro and Denver metro is land availability. Seattle, like a lot of coastal locations, has a lot less developable land than metro Denver has. Land for subdivisions appears not to be in short supply in the Denver area. I mean, Aurora alone could probably double its foot print in years to come with no problem. Almost everyone knows land scarcity dramatically spikes housing costs.

I see inflated Denver prices as a short term problem of lack of skilled trades workers among other things, causing too few houses being built to meet current demand. I haven't researched this issue deeply and am certainly not an expert in this field, but these are some factors experts have cited that are in play right now in your market.
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Old 03-09-2018, 09:08 AM
 
170 posts, read 183,109 times
Reputation: 107
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougStark View Post
Wait, you're citing a link to an article written by a real estate broker? Don't you think they're a little biased since they're realtors? I wouldn't trust their analysis.

I was in Denver last week and heard on talk radio KOA that wages in Denver have NOT kept up with the rising housing costs there. They said the average family would need to have a minimum of 70K down payment and decent salaries (can't remember the salary necessary.)

While I agree it's a nice town and has a bright employment picture, I don't see what justifies the inflated housing prices.

Someone mentioned Seattle and how it's housing costs have skyrocketed over the decade, suggesting Denver will follow a similar appreciation curve in years to come. One difference I see between Seattle metro and Denver metro is land availability. Seattle, like a lot of coastal locations, has a lot less developable land than metro Denver has. Land for subdivisions appears not to be in short supply in the Denver area. I mean, Aurora alone could probably double its foot print in years to come with no problem. Almost everyone knows land scarcity dramatically spikes housing costs.

I see inflated Denver prices as a short term problem of lack of skilled trades workers among other things, causing too few houses being built to meet current demand. I haven't researched this issue deeply and am certainly not an expert in this field, but these are some factors experts have cited that are in play right now in your market.
Even though there may be plenty of land east of Denver for development of new subdivisions the limiting factor will be the lack of water which will get worse in years to come because of the drought conditions that we are in. Also, this will cause sprawl and make our already bad traffic worse. The only solution I see here is infill development with higher density housing. Unfortunately, because of the high costs of construction and high costs of inner city land this means this form of housing won't be cheap.
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Old 03-09-2018, 09:14 AM
 
Location: Colorado Springs
3,081 posts, read 2,114,844 times
Reputation: 3582
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pesare View Post
Even though there may be plenty of land east of Denver for development of new subdivisions the limiting factor will be the lack of water which will get worse in years to come because of the drought conditions that we are in. Also, this will cause sprawl and make our already bad traffic worse. The only solution I see here is infill development with higher density housing. Unfortunately, because of the high costs of construction and high costs of inner city land this means this form of housing won't be cheap.

BINGO!!!

To build on all that land, developers must show 100 year water supply according to state law. This is a limiting factor in how much, and also how rapidly, expansion can occur in NorCo.

Unfortunately for us, AZ and CA had more and better attorneys at the time for exercising their rights towards water that originates in CO but flows downstream to them, otherwise we would just keep all the water here for ourselves and grow gangbusters.
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Old 03-09-2018, 09:15 AM
 
Location: Denver CO
21,168 posts, read 11,774,111 times
Reputation: 32172
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pesare View Post
Even though there may be plenty of land east of Denver for development of new subdivisions the limiting factor will be the lack of water which will get worse in years to come because of the drought conditions that we are in. Also, this will cause sprawl and make our already bad traffic worse. The only solution I see here is infill development with higher density housing. Unfortunately, because of the high costs of construction and high costs of inner city land this means this form of housing won't be cheap.
Thanks for the clear and concise explanation of why no, there is not essentially unlimited land available to build out in the Denver metro.
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Old 03-09-2018, 09:17 AM
 
Location: Aurora, CO
6,557 posts, read 10,264,564 times
Reputation: 9796
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougStark View Post
While I agree it's a nice town and has a bright employment picture, I don't see what justifies the inflated housing prices.
I'll take "Because There are Willing Buyers for $2000, Alex."
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Old 03-09-2018, 09:20 AM
 
Location: Denver CO
21,168 posts, read 11,774,111 times
Reputation: 32172
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluescreen73 View Post
I'll take "Because There are Willing Buyers for $2000, Alex."
But it's Denver! It's not worth it!!


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Old 03-09-2018, 09:40 AM
 
Location: In The Thin Air
12,279 posts, read 8,086,073 times
Reputation: 8917
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluescreen73 View Post
I'll take "Because There are Willing Buyers for $2000, Alex."
Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74 View Post
But it's Denver! It's not worth it!!


/thread
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Old 03-09-2018, 11:22 PM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
2,567 posts, read 1,829,666 times
Reputation: 2672
^^^^ The suggested "lack of water resources" is not currently causing fewer homes to be built in Aurora, contrary to what someone suggested. I suggest you read the City's "Aurora Integrated Water Master Plan", written in 2017. There will almost always be ways to increase the city's future expansion, whether by new reservoirs, dams, water rights acquisition, conservation, water re-use, etc. So yes, I think Aurora will one day have a larger population than Denver proper. Land for development and a reliable water supply are not limiting factors right now in Aurora.
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Old 04-04-2018, 01:43 PM
 
1 posts, read 546 times
Reputation: 16
I understand your frustration, but ...if you can afford an $800k house... you're far better off than the vast majority of people in Colorado. You're trying to buy in a very hot market, and not willing to compromise on wants; 5 months to look doesn't sound that bad under those conditions.

Think of all the families who are desperately trying to find sub $300 homes, scraping by while saving for the down payment. Hardworking families that were displaced by gentrification and the insane rents and that can never even dream of owning a house in their own hometown. Maybe volunteer somewhere, it'll give you some much-needed perspective, and you will stop feeling so horrible about this wait until you can find your ideal home.
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Old 04-04-2018, 11:40 PM
 
114 posts, read 55,959 times
Reputation: 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baba Yaga View Post
I understand your frustration, but ...if you can afford an $800k house... you're far better off than the vast majority of people in Colorado. You're trying to buy in a very hot market, and not willing to compromise on wants; 5 months to look doesn't sound that bad under those conditions.

Think of all the families who are desperately trying to find sub $300 homes, scraping by while saving for the down payment. Hardworking families that were displaced by gentrification and the insane rents and that can never even dream of owning a house in their own hometown. Maybe volunteer somewhere, it'll give you some much-needed perspective, and you will stop feeling so horrible about this wait until you can find your ideal home.
Agreed.

By comparison, my wife and I are in between offer and closing on a home in that price range (although much, much more than I had wanted to spend) with a very clear plan for what we wanted and the areas we wanted to live. I looked through all of 2017 online to get a sense of the market and then sent my wife to look at homes through the first three months of 2018. She toured forty-five homes and we put in offers on four homes. We probably looked at five hundred online--maybe more. Five months isn't too bad especially if you have very narrow desires and can't rush out to look at a home the second it hits the market. For the home we hope to close I caught it in the MLS the morning it came online and my wife happened to be in Denver to see the house at its first showing and we were the first offer to the seller. Had I not seen it right away or had my wife not been in town to look at homes we likely would not have had a chance on this one. Stay patient and persistent.
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