Is it a bad time to buy? (long term; 5+ years) (Lakewood: home sales, neighborhood)

[davebarnes]

Originally Posted by COcheesehead

With a few exceptions, prices are dropping.

Nonsense.
I have a spreadsheet of every new build (this century) in Berkeley. Sales since 2010.
958 rows.
I do not see falling prices.
What I have noticed recently is that developers are putting houses on the market at $930K and lowering the price to $899K after a month.

The latest DMAR report https://www.dmarealtors.com/download...-trends-report shows that DoM (median) has risen from 11 to 14 in the last year. Fourteen days is not a "dropping" market.

[ponyupgrl]

I don't know why everyone gets fixated on whether it's a "good" or "bad" time to buy.

I also don't view my primary residence as something that needs to be managed as an investment. It's something for me to enjoy - because so much of life revolves around where you live. Nobody knows when the next recession will be, or if that will even result in a housing market dip. If you're not planning on moving soon and have funds available to cover mortgage payments if something happens to your job for a while, I wouldn't sweat it. If not... I probably wouldn't buy a house regardless of what market trends people are predicting.

Over a longer stretch of time, your house will certainly appreciate in value.

[adriftinthebay]

There are differences in sale prices even among cookie cutter homes in the same subdivision. Just because one sold nearby for less doesn't mean the house in question would sell for less in today's market. Maybe that one is right next to a retention pond or has not been updated.

[emm74]

Originally Posted by davebarnes

What I have noticed recently is that developers are putting houses on the market at $930K and lowering the price to $899K after a month.

Is this to create an impression that the house is worth 930K but they are getting such a great deal (but it's on a house that's really worth 900K anyway)?

I don't have a spreadsheet but my impression on my own neighborhood is similar - that people who are greedy and push the envelope too far are forced to lower the price, but well priced homes are still selling briskly.

[Mike from back east]

Originally Posted by emm74

Is this to create an impression that the house is worth 930K but they are getting such a great deal (but it's on a house that's really worth 900K anyway)? ...

It's standard in retailing to put a high price tag on goods, then mark them down to what really is the 'de facto' retail price while barking loudly about SALE ON! Mattress retailers are notorious for this, as are jewelers. People need to KNOW their prices, be it on houses or TV sets.

[iSudo]

Originally Posted by emm74

Is this to create an impression that the house is worth 930K but they are getting such a great deal (but it's on a house that's really worth 900K anyway)?

I don't have a spreadsheet but my impression on my own neighborhood is similar - that people who are greedy and push the envelope too far are forced to lower the price, but well priced homes are still selling briskly.

I have thought that to be the case myself. I also looked at a flip that was listed for $500k initially, but has steadily dropped to under $450k. It was bought less than a year ago for $350k. When I visited, my realtor pointed out significant foundation damage. I think that is an exception, but I do believe that some houses may be listed on the high side due to an over zealous seller. Flips seem like they’d be difficult to price, because they can be the nicest house on the block surrounded by a bunch of run down fixed-uppers.

[katharsis]

FWIW -- Our Zillow home value has increased from about $424k to about $435k in just about six months, an increase of about 2.6%, but Zillow is predicting an increase of only about 1.5% for next summer. Last year, our neighborhood Realtor said that predictions for this year were for about a 6% increase, which was just about right because last year NO home in our neighborhood sold for more than $400k, but the 21 homes that sold this summer had a median sold price of $424,900 and the average sold price was $422k. (Home sold prices ranged from $384k to $452k.)

We live in southwest metro Denver, btw, and most homes around us were built about 1985-90, on average.

[emm74]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

It's standard in retailing to put a high price tag on goods, then mark them down to what really is the 'de facto' retail price while barking loudly about SALE ON! Mattress retailers are notorious for this, as are jewelers. People need to KNOW their prices, be it on houses or TV sets.

Retailing consumer goods, sure. But I don't really see that in house prices as much - if anything, people sometimes go in low because they think they are going to trigger a bidding war. But mostly I would say they try to go in at what they think they can get, with a little extra on top of that so they can negotiate a little and still net the desired amount. Going in 30K high (even when that's 3%) just so you can drop the price a month later seems like a waste of time. Plus the whole "this house has been sitting on the market, there must be something wrong with it" kind of perception that doesn't apply to consumer goods.

[TCHP]

Originally Posted by COcheesehead

We sold and are just curious if we got top dollar so my wife watches sales in the neighborhood for the same model house. They are based on county records. Zillow is crap.
With a few exceptions, prices are dropping.

Sounds like a good recipe for a big plate of regret on something you can't do anything about now.

[davebarnes]

Originally Posted by emm74

Is this to create an impression that the house is worth 930K ... that [developers] who are greedy and push the envelope too far are forced to lower the price

I think greedy developers.
Going over $900K appears to be a problem here in the far northwest. Maybe it is the bears and the snow.