Louhbuie? (Denver, Longmont, Loveland: real estate, property taxes, housing)

[patrickmich]

What do you think of Louhbuie's potential for future growth and home
appreciation? I cannot afford a house in the Denver area, but
I can afford Lochbuie. Do you think this is a place where real estate values are going to go up? There is also one other location where I can afford
a house. Highway 119 and 1-25. There is nothing there really except
for a handful of old truck stops. But there is a new housing development
located nearby, and currently the prices are affordable. I want to purchase my first home in an area that is expected to grow.
Thanks for your thoughts.

[2bindenver]

What industry and companies support the infrastructure in Lochbuie? Is is a bedroom community to Denver?

If it is all you can afford:
Where will you work?
How much will that cost you in gas?
How long are you planning on living there?

[tfox]

Unfortunately, Weld County real estate is depreciating rapidly with no end in sight. There's an old investment adage that says that you shouldn't try to catch a falling knife, meaning it's a bad idea to try to time a rapidly falling market.

If I were you, I'd move to the area and rent for a year or so, get your bearings, and make sure this is where you want to live. You don't want to get in a situation where you have to sell anytime soon, because that will be next to impossible in the next few years.

[tfox]

By the way, the area around I-25 and SH-119 is called "Del Camino" on the west side of the highway and I believe is a recently incorporated town, meaning it's not going to be annexed by someone else. It is NOT part of Longmont as some mistakenly believe. On the east side, that area is part of rapidly growing Frederick and Firestone.

[patrickmich]

I didn't know weld county was depreciating badly. Although you did say that Frederick and Firestone are growing rapidly so that confuses me a little bit.
Do you suppose this is why KB Homes knocked 25K off of their new home prices in Lochbuie and Del Camino? (incidently the Del Camino subdivision is
on the southwest corner of the highway interchange). KB Homes said the price reduction was for their 50th Anniversary, but I assume it has more to do with economics. I really don't feel like renting in the area first. In fact, my rental lease in Loveland is up at the end of this month, and I am moving,
probably out of state, to take advantage of affordable housing elsewhere.
The two subdivisions I mentioned are unusual in that the prices are unusually affordable for the area. But in my afforbility range, it is slim pickens in
Northern Colorado. (my price range: 130K max)

[tfox]

Unfortunately I can't give you an expert analysis of the real estate trends there since I'm not a real estate professional and I don't live in northern Colorado any more. I think it's safe to say, however, that real estate is depreciating there due to an unusually heavy exposure to the sub-prime lending, huge numbers of foreclosures, a large inventory of increasingly desperate resale homes on the market, a lack of primary employers for many miles in any direction from southwestern Weld County, and continued rapid new development and construction. Basically just an imbalance of supply and demand.

It is curious why new construction continues unabated despite the dreadful resale market -- it appears that buyers are willing to pay a relative premium for homes from a builder versus resales, so new construction does sell while resales languish, leading to a downward spiral in prices. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

I would be extremely cautious in buying in the teeth of a bad market like this -- you can get a good deal, but the challenge is that what appears to be a good deal this summer may be not look so good come next summer. I think that you should wait until resale inventory starts to see a decline before jumping in. Just my two cents. If you know for sure that you're staying put for a long time, that's one thing, but otherwise, I would watch and wait.

If you are looking to buy anyway, perhaps look at buying a foreclosure instead of buying from a builder? You might be able to buy something at an extremely low price that way.

[torigann]

Patrick,

I just bought a house last year (March 2006) in Lochbuie. Of course the houses are considerably less and so are the property taxes. Lochbuie, is at the edge of Weld County and most of the resources that we use are located in Brighton, which is in Adams County but only a few miles from Lochbuie.

I really like area, it does have so much potential for growth. Mostly because there is so much space. People who cannot afford or such as myself, resfuse to overpay for a home will be moving up north. Lochbuie, is only about 20 to 25 minutes from downtown Denver and bonus the airport is only a short ride away.

Also, they just finished building a huge hospital off of I-76 which is only a few miles from my house. In addition to that, there are many other stores such as a new Super Target, Kohls, Chilis, Lowes and many other brand name stores that are either being build or just finished being built.

So the potential is there for growth, you will just have to wait out the market and new homes being built in the area. The best part about my house is that I feel that I am in the country but have the ability to go into town. Of course my work is quite a ways from my house but the drive is very easy because there isn't much traffic on I-76, now hwy 85, I would avoid that by all means. There are too many stop lights and agriculture traffic and that part is considered Brighton. So stay on I-76 if you want a newer home. Just be prepared for the winds, since there is not much blocking the plains out there.

It depends on what you are looking for in a home. If you want value and plan to stay a few years. I recommend Lochbuie. Just dont' speed down the only main road we have....it seems we have quite a few police officers for our small little town.

Most of my friends tease me about having to drive to Kansas to visit me because I am so far out of the city. I just laugh when they have to pay their property taxes...that seems balanced. Hope this helps!

Tori