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Old 02-15-2016, 10:00 AM
 
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People are moving farther out because or SPRAWL. The homebuilding military-industrial complex promotes this and places like Howell, South Lyon, and Brighton have available land while other places closer-in are built-out. They have to go out that far to find lower-priced new build construction. The lack of regional planning causes this as every township gets so excited at GROWTH and TAX DOLLARS.
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Old 02-15-2016, 10:14 AM
 
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The sprawl is more a reflection of the jobs over time.

In 1980 - most of the high paying jobs were concentrated in Detroit. It was an easy 30-45 minute commute to come in from Farmington Hills, Southfield, Sterling Heights, Northville etc.

By 2000 - most of the high paying jobs were in the inner ring suburbs (e.g. Southfield, Troy, Auburn Hills). If your job is in Southfield - you can live in Brighton and still get to work in 30-45 minutes. But you wouldn't commute to Brighton from downtown. That has fueled the "exurban sprawal".

Around 2010 - Gilbert started the trend of moving jobs back downtown. He moved Quicken from Livonia (275) to downtown. Title Source moved from Crooks/Long Lake in Troy to downtown. Suddenly thousands of six figure jobs are commuting to downtown as opposed to Livonia or Troy. Blue Cross moved from Southfield. That makes the fringe commutes less in favor as people move closer to their work. Who benefits? Cities like Pleasant Ridge, Grosse Pointe or Wyandotte. Who loses? Livonia and Sterling Heights of the world.

As for Northville - it should always be fine because the barriers to entry are too high to rapidly deteriorate. Will it double in value. Hardly a chance. Homes in the Novi/Northville value are bought because you just want to live there, you buy the equity and sell and move to Florida. You won't make money flipping. There aren't enough people bidding up prices in a select area because there are so many good suburbs/options to choose.
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Old 02-15-2016, 10:58 AM
 
2,973 posts, read 4,463,469 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belleislerunner View Post
The sprawl is more a reflection of the jobs over time.

In 1980 - most of the high paying jobs were concentrated in Detroit. It was an easy 30-45 minute commute to come in from Farmington Hills, Southfield, Sterling Heights, Northville etc.

By 2000 - most of the high paying jobs were in the inner ring suburbs (e.g. Southfield, Troy, Auburn Hills). If your job is in Southfield - you can live in Brighton and still get to work in 30-45 minutes. But you wouldn't commute to Brighton from downtown. That has fueled the "exurban sprawal".

Around 2010 - Gilbert started the trend of moving jobs back downtown. He moved Quicken from Livonia (275) to downtown. Title Source moved from Crooks/Long Lake in Troy to downtown. Suddenly thousands of six figure jobs are commuting to downtown as opposed to Livonia or Troy. Blue Cross moved from Southfield. That makes the fringe commutes less in favor as people move closer to their work. Who benefits? Cities like Pleasant Ridge, Grosse Pointe or Wyandotte. Who loses? Livonia and Sterling Heights of the world.

As for Northville - it should always be fine because the barriers to entry are too high to rapidly deteriorate. Will it double in value. Hardly a chance. Homes in the Novi/Northville value are bought because you just want to live there, you buy the equity and sell and move to Florida. You won't make money flipping. There aren't enough people bidding up prices in a select area because there are so many good suburbs/options to choose.
You aren't going to make that kind of money in real estate anywhere in the state with the POSSIBLE exception of downtown Detroit if certain neighborhoods pop.

Real estate returns anywhere are going to revert to their historical mean -- about on par with stocks -- if we're lucky. The housing boom wasn't normal, and the economy is not good.

Northville and to a larger degree Plymouth do have one big thing going for them, however, they have desireable downtown areas, which a lot of people have come to prioritize over the last 25 years. So, I think you could see significant appreciation in those communities, as the upwardly mobile people from other western burbs want a nicer place to live without leaving the metro area.

I have often found the question of why the main thrust of growth in SE MI is out toward Brighton perplexing.

I think it is probably just a psychological characteristic of a lot of people in the area that they don't want to be bothered. There are a lot of people who think anyone who goes to nicer restaurants are snobs and almost literally have no use for any form of entertainment than sports. They are very cheap and they literally just want to live somewhere where it's a very low COL, big new house, and they can go to Applebee's once a month with a coupon and spend the rest of their time in their basement with their 70 inch televisions. Remember the outrage when the mileage was passed to fund the DIA?

It's not necessarily a bad thing, just difficult to understand when you do appreciate the relative urbanity of the metro area.
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Old 02-15-2016, 12:51 PM
 
17 posts, read 15,306 times
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Originally Posted by DTWflyer View Post
Novi is not dumpy, nor on a downward spiral, for heaven's sake!!!!!
It didn't have its "peak" in 2010. Yes, Novi is getting close to being built-out from new housing construction but there are still areas of new development in the city.

The bickering over these crime stats and schools is really a whole bunch of nit-picking over minute detail.

FACT: Novi is one of the top-10 school districts in the state, and there is no indication that is changing. Arguing about the specifics of test scores at individual schools is pointless. Novi has a solid foundation of adminstrators, teachers, parents, well-funded schools, good building/infrastructure, all a myrid of extracuricular activities that give all the tools necessary for success. As long as you, as a parent, make education a priority in your child's life, they will do well in Novi or Northville, etc.

FACT: Novi is an extremely safe place to live. Part of what skews community crime stats is the proximity of major highways and major retail/commercial establishments. These places by nature, always have shoplifting, retail fraud, gas drive-offs, the occasional purse-snatching/pick-pockets, pulling people over and finding drugs or outstanding warrents. So what. The same stuff can be found on any community that has a major highway bisecting its community, or a regional shopping mall. These people are harmless! This doesn't impact you necessarily as a resident of the community, and is part of living in a large metropolitan area. Northville might have slightly less crime because they do not have I-96 running through the middle nor to they have large retail that by nature has petty crime.
This exactly! Northville does not have the anything near the amount of retail that Novi does. The easy access off I-96 does attract many from around the metro area. I have lived in Novi for over 15 years and yes, the demographics have changed (many more Asians, more African Americans), but Novi is a very desirable, safe community. Novi is NOT in any kind of downward spiral. Northville, in addition to a nice viable downtown, has much less diversity, so if that is your bag, then I would recommend you look there or South Lyon (Lyon Township). Although I like Plymouth downtown a lot, I am not a fan of the Plymouth-Canton schools.
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Old 02-15-2016, 01:04 PM
 
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You missed Jonny's point - the only thing Novi has going for it was it's new subdivisions and a nice mall.

The city is nearing maturation for development purposes - but lacks the charm of a downtown Rochester/Royal Oak/Bham/Midtown/Grosse Pointe/Plymouth or Northville.

What is has is a mall and a Cheesecake Factory. But that's not a big enough reason to want a house there. You go to a mall once a month, if that. You walk to coffee shops daily.

Plymouth/Northville is in it's own arena in that area. Novi is a fine place to shop. Just not to live.
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Old 02-15-2016, 01:10 PM
 
2,973 posts, read 4,463,469 times
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Originally Posted by kimkim6887 View Post
This exactly! Northville does not have the anything near the amount of retail that Novi does. The easy access off I-96 does attract many from around the metro area. I have lived in Novi for over 15 years and yes, the demographics have changed (many more Asians, more African Americans), but Novi is a very desirable, safe community. Novi is NOT in any kind of downward spiral. Northville, in addition to a nice viable downtown, has much less diversity, so if that is your bag, then I would recommend you look there or South Lyon (Lyon Township). Although I like Plymouth downtown a lot, I am not a fan of the Plymouth-Canton schools.
Plymouth-Canton schools really only coalesce at the high school level. Maybe the jr highs and elementary schools do along the borders, but that's all.

Composite ACT for PARC or Novi high is comparable, so I'm not sure what there is to gripe about with Plymouth schools, relative to Novi at least. Relative to other districts in the state, sure, they are probably weaker.

Certainly that does not mean I'm advocating the 6,000-student PARC (or whatever absurd number it's at now), I think it's kind of awful, but it is actually a pretty good school with more extraicirruclars and more class options than you are likely to find anywhere else... well, probably anywhere.

That being said its size is absurd and certainly not everybody's bag of tea.

Another result of the previously referenced penny-pinching protestant farmfolk mindset I previously referenced. Average income is fairly high but you are going to get a tax dollar from them over their dead body, almost literally.
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Old 02-15-2016, 01:33 PM
 
17 posts, read 15,306 times
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Originally Posted by belleislerunner View Post
You missed Jonny's point - the only thing Novi has going for it was it's new subdivisions and a nice mall.

The city is nearing maturation for development purposes - but lacks the charm of a downtown Rochester/Royal Oak/Bham/Midtown/Grosse Pointe/Plymouth or Northville.

What is has is a mall and a Cheesecake Factory. But that's not a big enough reason to want a house there. You go to a mall once a month, if that. You walk to coffee shops daily.

Plymouth/Northville is in it's own arena in that area. Novi is a fine place to shop. Just not to live.
Do you even live by Novi?

Novi has excellent schools (Plymouth-Canton schools are not as highly ranked or regarded). Novi is very safe in spite of all the retail we offer. Speaking of retail, it is great to be a few minutes away from almost any store that I need and not have to schlep 20-30 minutes away.

Novi has a beautiful, almost brand new, library that offers a multitude of programs for the community. Novi has a very comprehensive community education program with many offerings for young, old and in-between. Novi has a nice park/lake area (Lakeshore park) that offers camps and free activities during the summer for families. Novi has a huge complex (Suburban Collection Center) that offers many different types of shows during the year (Home and Garden, Boat, Dog, Bridal, Gun, etc.) and also is the host to the Michigan State Fair every year. Novi has quite a bit of diverse restaurants (not just a Cheesecake Factory). Novi has a very large Hockey Arena and a Soccer Arena that many in the area take advantage of for training and sport activities. Novi has a Senior Center that offers daily activities to our older residents.

Something to add about Novi schools, we were the first in the immediate area to offer the International Baccalaureate diploma at Novi High School. This program is highly regarded in all academic circles and while more schools are beginning to offer it, we have had it since 2010. Northville did not start offering this program until the 2014-2015 school year. Our administration at Novi is constantly keeping its finger on the pulse of educational trends and adapting and adjusting to best serve our students.

We do not have a viable downtown area. That is true, but other than that I can't imagine anyone saying that we don't have anything other than a Mall with a Cheesecake Factory. Ridiculous!

While I live in Novi, I am within walking distance to Downtown Northville (10-15 minutes). It has a lot of charm, one cannot deny that, but I am very satisfied living in Novi and visiting DT Northville on the rare occasion that there is something that I want there.

Last edited by kimkim6887; 02-15-2016 at 01:43 PM..
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Old 02-15-2016, 01:34 PM
 
1,069 posts, read 1,210,233 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belleislerunner View Post
You missed Jonny's point - the only thing Novi has going for it was it's new subdivisions and a nice mall.

The city is nearing maturation for development purposes - but lacks the charm of a downtown Rochester/Royal Oak/Bham/Midtown/Grosse Pointe/Plymouth or Northville.

What is has is a mall and a Cheesecake Factory. But that's not a big enough reason to want a house there. You go to a mall once a month, if that. You walk to coffee shops daily.

Plymouth/Northville is in it's own arena in that area. Novi is a fine place to shop. Just not to live.
An awful lot of people DO like living in Novi though, and it has what they want in house or residential community. I get it, its your opinion that its not for you and for many others, but there are no shortage of people who do want to live in Novi.

Lets not kid ourselves, yes we have these "walkable" downtowns, but they aren't self-sufficient on their own. The downtown business districts survive on the higher than average disposible incomes of the people who live in the surrounding areas and drive to these places. You would not see the number of high-end chic boutiques, restaurants, coffee shops without the purchasing power of people who live within a 5 mile radius of these places.
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Old 02-15-2016, 01:39 PM
 
2,205 posts, read 2,912,749 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belleislerunner View Post
You missed Jonny's point - the only thing Novi has going for it was it's new subdivisions and a nice mall.

The city is nearing maturation for development purposes - but lacks the charm of a downtown Rochester/Royal Oak/Bham/Midtown/Grosse Pointe/Plymouth or Northville.

What is has is a mall and a Cheesecake Factory. But that's not a big enough reason to want a house there. You go to a mall once a month, if that. You walk to coffee shops daily.

Plymouth/Northville is in it's own arena in that area. Novi is a fine place to shop. Just not to live.
Out of all the uninformed nonsense you've posted on here, this has to take the cake.

Yeah, Novi has nothing going for it except, you know, one of the best school districts in the state, which is the primary driver of home values.

You might want to tell the people buying the $1 million+ new builds at the Island Lake sub that the area has "peaked" despite the 48374 and 48375 zip codes being in the top 5 and 10th percentile for household incomes in the country. Novi is the second wealthiest western burb just behind Northville, and the 48374 zip code is actually wealthier than the majority of Northville.

Yeah, there's no downtown -- except for downtown Northville being 5-8 minutes away from virtually any part of the city. No one really cares that it's in another city proper. They don't check for your credentials when shopping in downtown Northville.

And unless you live in downtown Northville, no one is walking to coffee shops or anywhere else. 95% of Northville is the same "suburban sprawl" as Novi/South Lyon/any other exurb. Ditto for Plymouth. Stop assuming that if you have a Northville zip code its the same as living downtown -- it's not. My friends who live in Northville Township subs have identical homes and subs as the ones in Novi and Lyon Township. They're built by the same builders with the same designs. The vast majority of the housing stock in Northville is from the 70s and newer. Downtown Northville accounts for a very small portion of Northville and Northville township, and is the only part of the city or township where you find the "charming" 19th century homes. The notion that a suburb must have a downtown to remain viable is utter nonsense. Most people who actually live out here consider Novi and Northville to be one area.
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Old 02-15-2016, 01:49 PM
 
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1) In our case, we moved out to Lyon Township because we could purchase a house a reasonable amount of money and not feel like we got ripped off. A lot of the housing stock in Novi and Northville is overpriced for what is being offered. As we kept looking Lyon Twp/South Lyon/New Hudson began looking a lot more appealing. It's still kind of freaky that we are closer to Brighton than we are to other areas of the Metro, but we love our house, so it is what it is.

Honestly, we can't wait until the area develops more because the restaurant choices are lacking - unless you like pizza - but Northville/Novi/Ann Arbor are just 15 minutes away. Then again, it's just cheaper to cook at home anyways. (and tends to be healthier).

2) Novi is not going downhill. smh

Of course, you are going to find kids turning up their bass in their "bad ass" car at the mall. Didn't we all know someone who drove around like that? (In my case, it was my brother. Very annoying). I'm not saying I like it, but come on....it's 2016. Shouldn't we be used to that kind of thing by now?
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