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Wow, you doom and gloomers never quit, do you? Sounds like it's time to head downtown with your "The End Is Coming" sandwich boards and start warning everyone that the sky is falling.
They can't get downtown because gas is at $10 a gallon based upon the threads that were going around here about a year or so ago.
Also, is gold $3,000 an ounce yet?
I bump some of the old threads but the kooks don't come back to them.
"#9) Kevin Giddis, the Managing Director of Fixed Income at Morgan Keegan says that a lot of people are making some really large financial bets that a recession is on the way....
"There is big money making big bets that at a minimum we we'll have a recession if not a depression that could last for years."
This one is especially frightening if the people making the large financial bets are capable of "fixing" the outcome to ensure their win.
Hmmmm....the guy selling fixed income options making scary predictions about the economy (and thus the stock market)?
Yeah, fear mongering sheeple is a great way to get rich....just like the run on ammunition when Obama was elected and guys paid 2-3x as much for bullets lol.
Oh please. Warren Buffett is the biggest fish in the financial pond, and he just BOUGHT a railroad, calling it an "all in bet" on the future prosperity of America. I think I'll put more faith in what he believes than what small fry like this guy are saying.
The Stock Market is a crock of schidt anyway, being stuck in what seems like a perpetual up-down-up-down-up-down schizoid motion. At least in a game of craps or poker, you have a fighting chance. As of late, the DOW can't seem to break much over 10.6 nor go much below 9800. The only thing you hear is a lot of noise whenever it makes a 200 or 300 point move in a day within that range. Like today, when it's up: "The recession's over! Happy days are here again! Recovery! Full steam ahead! Bull market for the next 385 years! Party party party!"
Then when it falls back by roughly the same amount (give it a week), it's the opposite: "Bloodbath! "Massacre"! "This is a crisis and emergency of epic proportions of which not even the sun going supernova can match! Triple dip depression! Regression to Messozoic Times are imminent!"
Geez. Give it up people. It needs to either lift off and roar up to 50k. Or else crater back down to about 2k. These itsy-bitsy dime-a-day gyrations within a relatively narrow range is....like I said...a crock and just more proof that it's being played like a fiddle. The only thing funnier is watching all of the wannabe Warren Buffets (or is that Hometown Buffet?) chasing it the same way a not-so bright canine pursues its own tail.
Oh wait. The most money is made on the diffs in a[n] artificially engineerd volatile "market".
Hmmmm....the guy selling fixed income options making scary predictions about the economy (and thus the stock market)?
Yeah, fear mongering sheeple is a great way to get rich....just like the run on ammunition when Obama was elected and guys paid 2-3x as much for bullets lol.
Actually people were buying up ammunition because Obama is the #1 most hated person by the NRA because of his position against the 2nd amendment. Luckily the supreme court fixed any problems there.
The Stock Market is a crock of schidt anyway, being stuck in what seems like a perpetual up-down-up-down-up-down schizoid motion. At least in a game of craps or poker, you have a fighting chance. As of late, the DOW can't seem to break much over 10.6 nor go much below 9800. The only thing you hear is a lot of noise whenever it makes a 200 or 300 point move in a day within that range. Like today, when it's up: "The recession's over! Happy days are here again! Recovery! Full steam ahead! Bull market for the next 385 years! Party party party!"
Then when it falls back by roughly the same amount (give it a week), it's the opposite: "Bloodbath! "Massacre"! "This is a crisis and emergency of epic proportions of which not even the sun going supernova can match! Triple dip depression! Regression to Messozoic Times are imminent!"
Geez. Give it up people. It needs to either lift off and roar up to 50k. Or else crater back down to about 2k. These itsy-bitsy dime-a-day gyrations within a relatively narrow range is....like I said...a crock and just more proof that it's being played like a fiddle. The only thing funnier is watching all of the wannabe Warren Buffets (or is that Hometown Buffet?) chasing it the same way a not-so bright canine pursues its own tail.
Oh wait. The most money is made on the diffs in a[n] artificially engineerd volatile "market".
Never mind.
It is funny how bipolar it is swinging between one week of crippling disaster or an incredible recovery of epic proportions.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The risk of a double-dip recession is getting a lot of attention, but even that grim prediction could prove a little too optimistic.
Disappointing job reports, weakness in housing and consumer spending and problems in world financial markets have raised concerns about the U.S. economy stalling out later this year. Now some economists are starting to talk about an even worse fate: a prolonged period of very weak growth, a so-called "lost decade."
"The probability of a lost decade is significantly greater than a double dip," said Sung Won Sohn, economics professor at Cal State University Channel Islands.
"We don't have too many engines of growth functioning right now -- housing, consumer spending, exports are all sputtering. I have a hard time seeing where we can get 3% economic growth back."
A lost decade, or something like it, could feel like a never-ending recession to many Americans, as the economy does not grow fast enough to recoup lost jobs, and investments like homes and stocks continue to lose value.
The most famous lost decade occurred in Japan in the 1990s. From 1992 through 1999, the Japanese economy grew by less than 1% a year. It has yet to fully recover from the economic weakness and falling prices it suffered during that period.
There are a number of similarities between conditions in Japan in the 1990's and the United States today. Japan had a real estate bubble inflate and then burst, resulting in banks choked with bad loans on their balance sheets and a cutback in lending.
The Bank of Japan did what it could to spur the economy, including cutting its key interest rate to near 0% and pumping money into the economy through asset purchases, just as the Federal Reserve has done over the last two years. But those steps had limited effectiveness.
And Japan suffered through bouts of deflation, in which falling prices caused businesses to cut production and employment, a scenario all too familiar to U.S. workers.
Deflation has been relatively rare in U.S. history, with no significant examples since the Great Depression. But with inflation nearly non-existent, some Federal Reserve policymakers said at their June meeting that they were worried about the threat of deflation.
Sohn puts the chance of a prolonged period of weak growth as high as 40%, with the chance of a double dip only 20%-25%.
"If I had a choice I would much rather have a double dip and be done with it. A lost decade is much more dangerous, economically, socially and politically," said Sohn.
The growth produced during U.S. recoveries has been trending lower over the last 40 years or more, according to Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute. He believes underlying changes in the economy will cause that trend to continue.
Achuthan said he's worried that with increased volatility, recessions are likely to become more frequent, causing the economy to lose more ground in upcoming recessions than it is able to recover from during growth periods.
"That's how you lose a decade," he said. "You get stuck in an era when you spend more time in recession than expansion."
James Hamilton, professor of economics, University of California San Diego, said much of past economic growth was built upon unsustainable deficit spending, by both governments and households. Huge, persistent trade deficits also provided a drag on the U.S. economy. It will require some painful structural changes to free the economy from those constraints.
"The pattern for growth we had been relying upon was unsustainable," he said. "These are long-term challenges." While he believes a double-dip recession will be avoided, weak growth is the best we can hope for, at least in the next few years.
Plenty of economists believe there are significant differences between Japan in the 1990s and the United States today, and that another lost decade is unlikely. They point to Japan's shrinking population compared to the growing U.S. population, as well as Japan's dependence on exports, rather than internal consumption, to drive the economy.
"You can draw some parallels, but while history can rhyme, it rarely repeats," said Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank. But while he doesn't expect a U.S. lost decade, even Riccadonna is not expecting strong growth.
"We're definitely looking at a subpar recovery," he said.
America has a huge cushion of excess cash, but we also have a debt problem that equals the momentum built up by that cash. When you look around the Mall parking lots you'd be hard pressed to argue for a collapse being predictable in the near future. The sheer weight of that debt will create havoc for a long time, we still haven't seen the worst of the credit crises that everybody keeps referring to as a recession.
Of course the mainstream news does no service to the truth, this recent crash had it's worst effects buffered by the infusion of government dollars, can this be a desirable scenario worthy of repeating? The loss of that mass credit market is the one big stumbling block to any real attempts at a recovery, since it was the credit markets that drove the meteoric rise in all markets it stands to reason that cheap and easy credit will have to come back, but is that what we want? Our economy of the last fifty years was an unsustainable one due to the Ponzi nature of the investment business that rode point for the entire army of believers who were ecstatic over the size of their returns.
I read a lot of posts that take the prole to task for this over the top debt we are drowning in. This crises is the work of Wall Street and no body else, the fact that our government bailed out the banks and some of our biggest industries only shows the extent of control these thieves have over the people vis a vis the government. It doesn't matter what kind of timeline predictions we get from various sources, in fact those kinds of predictions only serve to further confuse the masses into believing the myth of a recovery being pulled out of the hat as long as we don't see a total washout of our currency value. I would venture a guess that the continuation of the present shakeout will be the most likely scenario, it could go on like this for a very long time, media hype aside we'll all be better off when we know the truth about the toxic debt depth, it it not a matter of party politics either, we saw both parties cowing down to the "too big to fail boys" just like they are payed to do...
America has a huge cushion of excess cash, but we also have a debt problem that equals the momentum built up by that cash. When you look around the Mall parking lots you'd be hard pressed to argue for a collapse being predictable in the near future. The sheer weight of that debt will create havoc for a long time, we still haven't seen the worst of the credit crises that everybody keeps referring to as a recession.
Of course the mainstream news does no service to the truth, this recent crash had it's worst effects buffered by the infusion of government dollars, can this be a desirable scenario worthy of repeating? The loss of that mass credit market is the one big stumbling block to any real attempts at a recovery, since it was the credit markets that drove the meteoric rise in all markets it stands to reason that cheap and easy credit will have to come back, but is that what we want? Our economy of the last fifty years was an unsustainable one due to the Ponzi nature of the investment business that rode point for the entire army of believers who were ecstatic over the size of their returns.
I read a lot of posts that take the prole to task for this over the top debt we are drowning in. This crises is the work of Wall Street and no body else, the fact that our government bailed out the banks and some of our biggest industries only shows the extent of control these thieves have over the people vis a vis the government. It doesn't matter what kind of timeline predictions we get from various sources, in fact those kinds of predictions only serve to further confuse the masses into believing the myth of a recovery being pulled out of the hat as long as we don't see a total washout of our currency value. I would venture a guess that the continuation of the present shakeout will be the most likely scenario, it could go on like this for a very long time, media hype aside we'll all be better off when we know the truth about the toxic debt depth, it it not a matter of party politics either, we saw both parties cowing down to the "too big to fail boys" just like they are payed to do...
Not hard to do when you can just print the money by the pallet full.
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