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Old 07-16-2010, 05:51 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 84,131,087 times
Reputation: 27718

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You remember him..called "delusional" in 2006when he predicted the crash.

He's back and he's giving a warning. This guy has nailed it too.
He's predicting a sharp slowdown.
Money is tapped from all areas.
The debt is still there and has been artificially propped up with government money but that is now gone.
The delusional V shape recovery will evaporate.
The best scenario is a U shaped and might even go L shape with a near depression recovery.

Dr Doom has very few encouraging words that this can be avoided.

No snippets due to the copyright on the website. It's a good read.

Double-Dip Days - Project Syndicate
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Old 07-16-2010, 07:04 PM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
4,023 posts, read 7,341,677 times
Reputation: 1450
Certainly not !
Optimism = WIN
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Old 07-16-2010, 07:10 PM
 
20,187 posts, read 23,747,485 times
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Happy Texan, you would be right except for one thing... Government will bail out the companies AGAIN! Even after they promise to stop... if you don't believe me, just wait and see... this time they will call it a "job stimulus"... give Company X amount of dollars to keep people working... hehehe... that's what a bailout is called but just wait and see what the government will call it and deny its a bailout...
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Old 07-16-2010, 07:18 PM
 
10,494 posts, read 27,122,738 times
Reputation: 6716
Quote:
Originally Posted by evilnewbie View Post
Happy Texan, you would be right except for one thing... Government will bail out the companies AGAIN! Even after they promise to stop... if you don't believe me, just wait and see... this time they will call it a "job stimulus"... give Company X amount of dollars to keep people working... hehehe... that's what a bailout is called but just wait and see what the government will call it and deny its a bailout...
You might be right, but all this will do is make the coming depression much worse. When is the government going to get it that we need to cut taxes and return to a free market to get out of this mess.
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Old 07-16-2010, 07:19 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 84,131,087 times
Reputation: 27718
And here's Zerohedge with a report that the ECRI is at -9.8% and has been an accurate predictor of the last 7 recessions. -10% is a virtual shoe in for one.

Evil..yeah the government may try like the last time. But one thing here is different..the amount of debt the Fed Gov has accumulated since the last big dip where they bailed out everyone.
I just don't know if we can pull another set of bailouts/stimulus if this does turn out to be a double dip.

ECRI Plunges At 9.8% Rate, Double Dip Recession Virtually Assured | zero hedge
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Old 07-16-2010, 07:23 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 84,131,087 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RenaudFR View Post
Certainly not !
Optimism = WIN
Are you familar with Nouriel Roubini ?

Is this a good summary of what happened to us ?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/ma...ssimist-t.html
"Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, stood before an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing. In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession. He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt. These developments, he went on, could cripple or destroy hedge funds, investment banks and other major financial institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."

Roubini said that in 2006 and was laughed at. One year later it all started happening.
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Old 07-16-2010, 07:30 PM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
4,023 posts, read 7,341,677 times
Reputation: 1450
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
Are you familar with Nouriel Roubini ?

Is this a good summary of what happened to us ?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/ma...ssimist-t.html
"Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, stood before an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing. In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession. He laid out a bleak sequence of events: homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt. These developments, he went on, could cripple or destroy hedge funds, investment banks and other major financial institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."

Roubini said that in 2006 and was laughed at. One year later it all started happening.
I know him, I study economics.But it's just a man, he can be wrong..In 2008 Paul Krugman obtained a Nobel Prize, but in 2010 keynesianism is considered like dead and nobody listens Krugman, except Obama...
And these bad news really are annoying.Personally I'm very optimistic about the future of this great country

Optimism = WIN
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Old 07-16-2010, 07:38 PM
 
13,811 posts, read 27,308,148 times
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In my industry, aviation, things are looking way up. Load factor is at the highest ever in history. Lots of business and pleasure travel going on.
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Old 07-16-2010, 07:42 PM
 
10,494 posts, read 27,122,738 times
Reputation: 6716
Quote:
Originally Posted by RenaudFR View Post
I know him, I study economics.But it's just a man, he can be wrong..In 2008 Paul Krugman obtained a Nobel Prize, but in 2010 keynesianism is considered like dead and nobody listens Krugman, except Obama...
And these bad news really are annoying.Personally I'm very optimistic about the future of this great country

Optimism = WIN
What you are is very naive. HappyTexan is trying to tell you like it is and you won't listen.
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Old 07-16-2010, 07:54 PM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
4,023 posts, read 7,341,677 times
Reputation: 1450
Quote:
Originally Posted by las vegas drunk View Post
What you are is very naive. HappyTexan is trying to tell you like it is and you won't listen.
Maybe naive, but not drunk

Be happy and optimistic guys.Stop crying, complaining, appreciate the life and go ahead, a bright future is here
I don't believe all these bad news, things will be fine

Give hope to people, no apocalyptic prophecies.Apparently you love that, not me...That's all.
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