Our Economic Future is a Bright One (bankrupt, buy, income)
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If you look five to ten years out, you see there are several “game-changing” technologies on the horizon.
A few of them are:
- Solar power that is price competitive with coal.
- Stem cell research and genetic research that extends our lifespans and eradicates several costly diseases.
- Visual recognition software and natural language processing—i.e., a computer will recognize images and understand the meaning of everyday language.
- Improved Artificial Intelligence.
Several other technologies are already here, but will become better, cheaper and more ubiquitous in the coming years.
- Wireless technology
- Smart phones
- Miniaturization of video cameras.
- Fully automated manufacturing.
The impact of the above technologies, especially when coupled together, will be profound.
People assume computers will take our jobs. Some jobs they will. Manufacturing will continue to shed jobs as production becomes automated. Low level office jobs and low-level technical jobs will be shed as it will be easier for a computer to do those tasks. In this regard, AI will be a bigger threat than offshoring.
But for most American workers, productivity will shoot through the roof. Much of person’s work time will be spent delegating to computers in the same manner they would a team of people, then checking over their work. Our economy will increasingly become a 24/7 economy: people will work from 10-5 and computers will work the rest in off hours.
The supposed threats from India and China will diminish. Countries that emphasize rote learning and lack workers with strong creative/analytical skills are basically screwed. Much of the low-level software support and programming currently done in India will be done by computers in 10 years.
Where have seen similar technological breakthroughs in the past? The 1930’s and 1940’s. During that period we saw staggering technological breakthroughs overshadowed by a protracted deleveraging recession—just like our current one. After WWII, these technological breakthroughs finally manifested in the “golden age” of 1950’s. In doing so, our culture was revolutionized for the better.
In ten years, it will happen again.
Belive it or not.. I agree too. But push your date forward 20-30 years. There is gonna be a lot of hard times ahead while we adapt to new and very difficult circumstances and pass through the proverbial minefield of potential civilization crushing problems (Peak oil, overpopulation, wealth inequality, failing infrastructure, corrupt government, incredible debt burdens, social unrest, war, Britney Spears rumors , ect).
But IF we make it through, we will have the opportunity to create and live in an amazing future world.
I do not seee fossil guels being m0re expensive i our lifetime or even alternative that can do much to replace crude and its other 19000 products besides fuels. .
Currently solar power is on par with natural gas in terms of cost per kwh.
It will surpass coal by 2020.
In the last decade, the MW production of solar power has grown by 20,000 %. It will continue to increase exponentially.
Thirty years ago, solar power was largely a pipedream. Today it is inevitability.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mysticaltyger
But I don't think stem cell research is really the cure to most of our diseases. We have to stop believing more "treatmets" are the cure for most of our health problems. The real cure for most of our ills is natural, non-processed foods, and limited beef and poultry consumption (and grass fed beef). The key to good, and cheap health care is living a healthier lifestyle.
If most of us ate real food, didn't smoke, maintained a healthy weight, and exercised a few times a week:
Diabetes would drop by 93% Heart disease would drop by 81% Cancer would drop by 36%
If people lived healthier lifestyles, they would be better off. However, at this point, promoting healthy living is mainly falling on deaf ears. The principles of healthy living should be taught, but expect modest results.
Both diabetes and heart disease will be eradicated in 15 years. You are beginning to see drugs that tackle the obesity problem like Lorcaserin. The results are modest—a 5-7% reduction in body weight. However, it’s a sign of things to come.
Cancer will probably be trickier, seeing that it has both genetic and environmental origins. But our treatments will improve as we begin to engineer cancer treatments specifically to someone’s genome. What works for well for one person, may not work well for another.
Lately, researchers were able to repair the spinal chord injuries in lab mice with human stem cells, allowing them walk again. The implications of this are obvious. Stem Cells Repair Damaged Spinal Cords in Mice
If you look five to ten years out, you see there are several “game-changing” technologies on the horizon.
A few of them are:
- Solar power that is price competitive with coal.
- Stem cell research and genetic research that extends our lifespans and eradicates several costly diseases.
- Visual recognition software and natural language processing—i.e., a computer will recognize images and understand the meaning of everyday language.
- Improved Artificial Intelligence.
Several other technologies are already here, but will become better, cheaper and more ubiquitous in the coming years.
- Wireless technology
- Smart phones
- Miniaturization of video cameras.
- Fully automated manufacturing.
The impact of the above technologies, especially when coupled together, will be profound.
People assume computers will take our jobs. Some jobs they will. Manufacturing will continue to shed jobs as production becomes automated. Low level office jobs and low-level technical jobs will be shed as it will be easier for a computer to do those tasks. In this regard, AI will be a bigger threat than offshoring.
But for most American workers, productivity will shoot through the roof. Much of person’s work time will be spent delegating to computers in the same manner they would a team of people, then checking over their work. Our economy will increasingly become a 24/7 economy: people will work from 10-5 and computers will work the rest in off hours.
The supposed threats from India and China will diminish. Countries that emphasize rote learning and lack workers with strong creative/analytical skills are basically screwed. Much of the low-level software support and programming currently done in India will be done by computers in 10 years.
Where have seen similar technological breakthroughs in the past? The 1930’s and 1940’s. During that period we saw staggering technological breakthroughs overshadowed by a protracted deleveraging recession—just like our current one. After WWII, these technological breakthroughs finally manifested in the “golden age” of 1950’s. In doing so, our culture was revolutionized for the better.
In ten years, it will happen again.
I do agree to a point. The big bang economically from the internet is in the past but you are right going forward wireless and instant access to info everywhere will happen, it just won't be a big of a economic driver as the first tech wave since the costly infrastructure is in place.
As you said during the depression we saw a ton of advancements but for the most parts they were additions to innovations that became mainstream in the 20's.
I feel we need to do a similar deleveraging in order to really take off in the 2020's.
yeah because those who are unemployed or under employed or just plain have no income at all can afford to eat along the lines of a healthy lifestyle
You do the best with what you have and if the only sustenance you take in is junk food, then that is better than no food at all. So, here we go again just blaming people for being lazy blah, blah........
Good point, we will probably never get beyond the myth of lacking personal responsibility being the reason for poor diet and many other of societies ills. This supposed lacking has become the mantra of the right wing radio shouters in order to deflect the glaring lack of education and money in the lower classes and the causes therein. The government that favors the corporate elite will never regulate the food industry to the point of requiring decent wholesome food over the tremendous profits garnered from the Mcfood that has dominated the marketplace.
I don't know what was put into the OP's cool-aid but IMO his optimism borders on fantasy.
Optimism can be a good thing in the worst of times but we all know the dangers involved when it rules over reason. Many of todays economic cheerleaders are schooled in the view that tells them to trust the power of the "free market". Of course the trouble with that view is that we never have had a true free market and therefor that trust is unwarranted. Our system of economics has long been a hybrid of government and private enterprise investment, together this combine serves the uppermost classes, those on the low rungs get enough crumbs to make it all seem like the proverbial 'rising tide' that raises the standard of living for all. The last two years are have been the litmus test for all that raving about the "miracle" of our monetary construct, it failed of course and when those crumbs are gone we'll really see the true character of this so called miracle economy.
The Human Genome and the Human Being - The Corner - National Review Online Hope you're right. The much ballyhooed genome thing didn't work out so well though... Solar power equivalent from coal just shifts one mode of production to another, albeit it is "cleaner". We would be wealthier when energy becomes cheaper period.
The concepts outlined in the OP's posts (technological change altering the economy for the better) are NOT new concepts.
They are controversial (I will admit that) but they are hardly something that someone came up with yesterday.
Last edited by Alphalogica; 08-12-2010 at 07:13 AM..
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