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Old 08-25-2010, 04:47 PM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
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The China Syndrome | Newgeography.com

I'm agree, these predictions about China are ridiculous...The big growth (7-10% can't be eternal).
Enjoy
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Old 08-26-2010, 08:19 AM
 
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The demographics problem they mention is a huge one, they've had the one-child policy since the late 70s so most Chinese who have had children during that time are still in the workforce, but there is going to be a huge problem with the percentage of population who are productive workers.

The burden on the state to provide will be mitigated somewhat by their family social safety net of multi-generational households but in terms of production/export it could have a big impact on the Chinese economy.
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Old 08-30-2010, 02:53 PM
 
Location: state of procrastination
3,487 posts, read 6,366,074 times
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I believe that China will still be the #1 economy by sheer power of its population. There are still many underdeveloped areas so my feeling is that growth can be sustained for awhile, though not at current rates. The govt is actually taking steps to reign in growth, and are aware of the pitfalls of a bubble economy (having learned from the US example).

A heavy-handed govt by strict regulations can fix many of the ecological/environmental problems more rapidly than say, in the US where Republicans are against environmental regulations for fear that it would quench industrial growth. Example is when they restricted driving in the year before the olympics to control their auto emissions and cleaned up the air rapidly.

People in China are hardened to suffering, so the government can get away with very radical changes in policy. The labor force is easily manipulated by the government, allowing rapid placement of infrastructure at much, much cheaper costs (i.e. no pesky labor unions) even if workers will be exploited.

The science/technology labor force is strong because education is highly valued. This is vastly different from the US where service sector dominates. Wouldn't be surprised if their energy issues are resolved by some new technological breakthrough in the near future, especially since technology is cheaper to develop in China so people who invent things in the US often take their technologies to China for further refinement.

I also would not be surprised if they have entered into secret agreements to secure oil from neighboring lands. They have also been busy in Latin america trying to get stakes in oil companies.

Just some things that the article did not address. I could be totally wrong with these predictions though.
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Old 08-30-2010, 02:59 PM
 
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US become the #1 economy because it was an undeveloped country! So it's China but US didn't had the power of today's China 70-80 years ago! Even if China won't surpass US economy I'm sure that US will go down so bad that will end up on 2nd place soon!
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Old 08-30-2010, 04:06 PM
 
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My sister-in-law is a sedimentoligist,and has studied the growing desertification of northern China for several years.The Gobi desert,and poor water management by the Chinese Government has destroyed thousands of farms and acres,not a pretty picture.
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