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No, the technical indicators still say we are in a recovery. The recession ended in June of 2009. IMO, we will double dip in the not to distant future because of surging energy prices.
depends what you are measuring. If its business profitability then times are good, stock market going up and up, most stocks are hitting 52-week hits. So its pretty nice.
If its in terms of employment then we are in a depression and will remain so for quite some time. The world unemployment rate is around 30%. We only have around 10% so we have it better than many other places.
Thats all I'm asking. I get mixed messages from the news and from people in my life.
You aren't not "technically in a recession."
Your GDP bypassed the Benchmark data 6 quarters ago (18 months ago or Summer 2009) and has been growing at about 2%-5% per quarter, which is the expected average quarterly growth for a post-industrialized country.
The fact that unemployment remains high is not relevant.
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Originally Posted by Pear Martini
Will we ever get out of this economic slump?
If you're referring to the high unemployment, the answer is no, not in your life-time. It will actually get worse as time drags on.
If you're asking a guy sitting on UE benefits and stuff, it's a picture of doom.
If you're asking other people, it's different.
If you ask the pundits, they have an agenda
Personally, I have never felt this recession I'm still raking out profits trading and my kind of job still pays me close to double sixes. This is nowhere close to the recession of the dotcom crash of 2K or the great depression of the 30s. This recession has been fractured. Generally a recession hits all sectors, but unfortunately, the real victim has been the housing sector.
Tech is still strong, companies still post billions in revenues and are sitting on hordes of cash. How many idiots have you seen lining up for Apple's newest iThing. That tells us we are not in a recession. In a recession/depression, people line up like that only for food. Globalization has made recession impossible, they call it a crisis
Long story short, there is no consensus that we are in a recession.
For your second question, it will still take five more years, but that does not mean "you" will be affected, if you know what I mean. People who have a vision of what they want generally adapt. Those who got affected in this so-called recession are those stupid people who grew so comfortable in their jobs and cared only about weekend vacations that when they were suddenly left with a pink slip, it took one year for them to even come to terms with it. And their lifestyles were all built without any backup plan.
You won't imagine the amount of senior guys I gave tips to, on how to crack interviews. They were so fricking out of touch. Becoz they built their own little worlds in their shells provided by an illusion of a stable job and long-last retirement in a nude beach with endless supplies of viagra.
The dream world around them suddenly collapsed. And as employers started looking elsewhere for talent, they were expendable. The lack of jobs is one thing, erosion of skill is another. Shareholders want revenues, unfortunately
"Technically" a recession is two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, assuming that you trust the official data. On that basis, as mentioned, the US technically came out of recession about 18 months ago.
My expectation 18 or so months ago is that economy will assume a W pattern for the foreseeable future, with the energy constraint slapping back down any periods of recovery.
Based on that projection, I agree with las vegas drunk that the current spike in energy prices may trigger a contraction in GDP for a quarter, maybe even two, meaning double-dip recession, but 0%-1% growth for a quarter or two is just as likely. Again, some of it depends on to what extent you trust the official statistics.
As for the "economic slump" question, I expect globally the power of people with high corporate positions to continue increase and that of the average worker to continue to decrease (in short, yes, it is possible to have growth without a reduction in the unemployment rate) and, in general, I expect the standard of living of the average global worker to converge, relatively downward for the average worker in the countries of early industrialization (e.g. US, western Europe, Japan) and relatively upward in emerging countries.
No, the technical indicators still say we are in a recovery. The recession ended in June of 2009. IMO, we will double dip in the not to distant future because of surging energy prices.
Energy prices are incredibly volatile so the price may not by the time this Middle East crisis is over. Obviously, the price won't be too low.
It does not depend on "who you ask." The definition of recession was defined long ago by economists. It does not change because the media invented a cute little buzz-word/phrase to deceptively lure people into paying attention to the nonsense they spew.
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Originally Posted by Antlered Chamataka
If you're asking a guy sitting on UE benefits and stuff, it's a picture of doom.
Why would anyone with a brain ask the "guy sitting on UE benefits?"
The "guy sitting on UE benefits" has an Econ IQ of Zero, and a Financial IQ of Zero and Personal Financial IQ of Zero.
People like him don't know what they're talking about and have no understanding, which wouldn't be so bad, except they then vote in their own selfish interests, which is why Democracy always fails.
That's how slick-talking dictators gain power
Quote:
Originally Posted by Antlered Chamataka
Long story short, there is no consensus that we are in a recession.
Yes, there is a consensus. You are not in a recession, end of story.
What the man on the street thinks and what the media thinks is not relevant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002
"Technically" a recession is two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, assuming that you trust the official data. On that basis, as mentioned, the US technically came out of recession about 18 months ago.
That's how BEA defines it, but economists would consider that an economic down-turn, not a recession.
In order for the economy to perform efficiently, it is sometimes necessary to shift Capital (resources, cash, credit, machinery, equipment and labor) from one or more sectors of the economy to other sectors of the economy.
We actually saw that in during the reign of Bush the Elder and Clinton.
As Bush the Elder ordered the withdraw and destruction of tactical nuclear warheads and their related systems, and with the draw down of the military there was a shift in Capital from defense sectors of the economy to other sectors of the economy. That shift in Capital resulted in a mild economic down-turn for two quarters as the economy moved from a quasi-war-time economy to a non-war-time economy (historically that shift takes two quarters). It continued during the Clinton Administration as military bases were closed/realigned and units deactivated. The GDP did not contract, but unemployment rose as a result of lay-offs in the defense industry and employee terminations and business closings related to the closure of bases or their realignment. When you have a small town with 5,000 people and a military base with 18,000 troops, plus 2,000 contractors, plus 3,000 DOD and DA or DAF or DN employees, plus their spouses and children (another 9.000 to 12,000 people), it creates a huge hole in the local economy when those 30,000+ people leave. Clinton's solution was to change the way unemployment was calculated in 1994 to mask the rising unemployment rate so he could be re-elected in 1996.
Recessions can occur for other reasons. Cost Inflation can cause recession in some economies. Trade embargoes, import/export tariffs, taxes, duties, personal and business tax rates and technology.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002
My expectation 18 or so months ago is that economy will assume a W pattern for the foreseeable future, with the energy constraint slapping back down any periods of recovery.
It would be more like a drunken W. If you have a series of recessions, you can group those into a period of depression.
Each recession would undo gains made and leave the situation worse, so rather than a W or drunken W, you end up with the "creaky downward staircase."
Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002
but 0%-1% growth for a quarter or two is just as likely. Again, some of it depends on to what extent you trust the official statistics.
I don't particularly care for GDP measured in Dollars.
The US calculates GDP based on the number of times Dollars trade hands. It does nothing to relate Dollars or prices to a base standard. Obviously, if there is Cost Inflation and the prices of certain commodities rises, then you'll get an increase in GDP, but then the GDP is really only reflecting an increase in prices, not necessarily an increase in economic growth.
It would be better to measure GDP in terms of unit output. They can do that if they wanted to. The Department of Commerce has been collecting that data since 1994. Every company with more than 25 employees or minimum in revenues has to file a quarterly report with Commerce. For large companies it can take about 200 hours to complete the report. You have to report the number of employees, their color, sex, age-group, the number you hired and their color, sex, age-group, the number that were voluntarily or involuntarily terminated, the number on worker's compensation, vacation, family leave, the number of sick days used, the rate of absenteeism, the number of kilowatt hours of electric used, cubic meters of natural gas and water, the number of hours worked by salaried and hourly employees, the number of over-time hours, the amount of raw materials you purchased, what you paid, where you got them, the amount of semi-finished goods, what you paid, where you got them, and the amount of finished product you produced, what it cost you, and what you sold it for. If you're a service, like a law firm, security company, plumbing, electrical or other, you report the number of billable hours. If you're a wholesale or retail, you report the number of units sold by NAICS code. Large restaurant report number of customers served.
They have the data, and they could use that to report GDP by unit volume. That would give you a measure by unit of billable hours, customers, units produced, units sold and that would be a more accurate measure of GDP, and then you could compare it against GDP in Dollars. If GDP in Dollars is rising but billable hours, units produced, units sold etc are declining, then your economy is not growing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bale002
I expect the standard of living of the average global worker to converge, relatively downward for the average worker in the countries of early industrialization (e.g. US, western Europe, Japan) and relatively upward in emerging countries.
That will take decades, probably throughout the remainder of the century.
I don't think Japan will be severely affected, or even affected at all, since their non-oil resource use is only 4.5% (compared to the US which is 29% -- I believe Europe is still 18% -- so the US will be the most severely affected).
And a recovery is when Barack Obama loses his job.
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I'm still raking out profits trading and my kind of job still pays me close to double sixes. This is nowhere close to the recession of the dotcom crash of 2K or the great depression of the 30s. This recession has been fractured. Generally a recession hits all sectors, but unfortunately, the real victim has been the housing sector.
