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Old 03-24-2011, 02:54 AM
 
Location: Tower of Heaven
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Old 03-24-2011, 06:28 AM
 
1,463 posts, read 2,359,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
We are not just headed for a double dip. We are headed for a complete and total collapse. Our way of life in this country is about to change significantly for the worse.
Oil is $106 this morning as the situation in Japan is stabilizing. It's highly unlikely to jump another $4 by the end of the day tomorrow, and $115-120 just ain't gonna happen. I'll be serving up the crow tomorrow.
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Old 03-24-2011, 06:45 AM
 
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Libya is not that big an exporter, Japan isn't using as much oil lately. It's not supply and demand, but speculation, that is driving the price up. Look for a collapse in oil prices soon.
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Old 03-24-2011, 06:48 AM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,042,083 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pvande55 View Post
Libya is not that big an exporter, Japan isn't using as much oil lately. It's not supply and demand, but speculation, that is driving the price up. Look for a collapse in oil prices soon.
It will take a stock market crash to kill oil's run, like it did in 2008. Yes, we may have $50 oil by the end of 2011 but that will be accompanied by Dow 5000 and unemployment 20%.
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Old 03-24-2011, 06:54 AM
 
71,517 posts, read 71,694,121 times
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And if your job goes along with the deal?
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Old 03-24-2011, 10:11 AM
 
Location: state of procrastination
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Logically there should be a double dip, but since the market and US at large is devoid of logic I just don't know what is going to happen.
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Old 03-24-2011, 11:21 AM
 
1,463 posts, read 2,359,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02 View Post
It will take a stock market crash to kill oil's run, like it did in 2008. Yes, we may have $50 oil by the end of 2011 but that will be accompanied by Dow 5000 and unemployment 20%.
There is no basis to your claims. Anybody who followed your advice on the markets would be in the poor house by now. Companies are sitting on record levels of cash at the moment waiting to invest, earnings have been good, auto sales climbed in Feburary despite rising oil prices, the jobs report was positive today, and nearly every market expert is calling for a bullish 2011-2013. You know, people who actually study market technicals and historical trends instead of sitting around on a message board making pie in the sky predictions.

Quote:
"Weekly jobless claims of 382,000 tell a relatively straightforward story -- the downward trend that took claims below 400,000 earlier this year was not an aberration, but evidence of the next phase of the labor market recovery," said Jim Baird, partner and chief investment strategist at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
Quote:
We suspect the bulls got themselves into a tizzy because of the reported draw in gasoline.

It is understandable. Over the last five weeks gasoline inventories have dropped by 8.9%. Keep in mind, a decrease in stocks at this point in the season is the norm, but an 8.9% decline is well outside of the normal range (1.0% to 4.7%) from the last ten years.

That is a fair point. But we also respect the fact that ending stocks of gasoline finished 2010 at 219.5 MMbbls or 3.8% above the 10-year average. Moreover, despite ample supplies of high-RVP gasoline, inventories through the first six weeks of 2011 grew by 10%. Normal growth over this timestep is in between 2.7% to 8.1%.

Bottom line, despite a large draw over the last five weeks, gasoline stocks have grown by 0.7% since the start of the year; normal growth through the first 11 reports of the year ranges from -1.4% to +6.2%.

As such, as written in today’s issue of The Schork Report, there is nothing extraordinary about the recent drawdowns of high-RVP gasoline. Therefore, we want to know… what was so bullish about yesterday’s DOE report?
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Old 03-24-2011, 03:29 PM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 15,042,083 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mustang84 View Post
There is no basis to your claims. Anybody who followed your advice on the markets would be in the poor house by now. Companies are sitting on record levels of cash at the moment waiting to invest, earnings have been good, auto sales climbed in Feburary despite rising oil prices, the jobs report was positive today, and nearly every market expert is calling for a bullish 2011-2013. You know, people who actually study market technicals and historical trends instead of sitting around on a message board making pie in the sky predictions.
Anybody who's predicting a strong 2011-13 economically must be living in lala land. Maybe if the predictions were made in late 2010 before the oil spike but now consumer spending has halted and it won't be long before the rest of the economy halts with it. The stock market will crash and unemployment will spike. These oil prices have changed the economic outlook from cautious optimism to one of very little optimism and much uncertainty. In 2008 oil was the straw that broke the camel's back and the same will hold true in 2011.
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Old 03-24-2011, 03:46 PM
 
Location: The North
5,083 posts, read 9,092,585 times
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If the economy goes into recession next in 2030, would you still call it a double dip?

If a recession does hit in the next 12-24 months, its going to be something completely different than 2008-9. Recessions are normal over time, but they generally follow periods of economic growth far above trend rates. Consider how little above trend growth we have seen and the easy to surpass rates of the past year or two the chances of a recession are pretty low. Much more likely we'll see something like 2 or 3 quarters of growth at 1-1.5%, which might feel like a dip, but its really not.
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Old 03-24-2011, 03:51 PM
 
48,516 posts, read 83,912,172 times
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Right nw thwe most likely thing to sned the econmoy dippig is the sitaution in seceral european countries;jaoan gettig worse or more unrest in the middle east. There is always something tho.
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