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Old 06-24-2011, 09:46 PM
Status: "SSRIs = school shootings = MKULTRA = Pol Pot America" (set 10 days ago)
 
Location: Meth capital of the world.
8,339 posts, read 5,690,630 times
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You cannot outlaw speculation...................OOOPS......yes you can, if we are talking about the USA...........then............all of the revenue and employment associated with the operation will just go elsewhere.
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Old 06-24-2011, 10:46 PM
 
Location: Ohio
10,687 posts, read 5,981,373 times
Reputation: 6064
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vegas Joe View Post
With gasoline, I have no alternatives. Even if it is $10 a gallon, I have to have it because I have to drive. There are no alternatives.
There are alternatives, but you're not interested in investigating or utilizing them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pvande55 View Post
No we should not. Speculators lend stability to markets.
That's absolutely correct.

As a business, the futures commodity market lets me know far in advance the price of the commodity I need to do business. If I operate a cannery, I can lock in the price of corn now, for later this year.

That makes it very easy for me to ensure that I have sufficient cash or credit to purchase the corn; I know far in advance what my production costs will be; I can plan my production and delivery schedule accordingly if I know I have 3 Million bushels for August and 6 Million for September and so on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pvande55 View Post
It may spike prices for a while, but it can also depress prices.
In the end it pretty much averages out, but if you're a savvy buyer, you can come out ahead usually.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jm31828 View Post
Actually oil speculation WAS regulated up until around 2001- where it was required that people buying oil futures actually take delivery of that oil.
Sorry, wrong answer. You're still required to take delivery of oil.

Seriously, I have to ask, what the hell are you people thinking? Do you even understand how futures work? Maybe I should ask if you people understand how the world works.

How the hell am I supposed to take delivery of oil that is still in the ground, or pork bellies that are still on the pig, are corn that just got planted yesterday?

Oil shoots out of the ground in Saudi Arabia, flies through the air and lands 9,000 miles away in my tank farm 30 seconds later? Is that what you thought?

A well pumps 8-18 barrels per day. That's it. And you have no control over that. Mother Nature decides if your well puts out 8 barrels per day or 18 barrels per day or anything in between.

Obviously, it'll take quite a while for the well to pump 300,000 barrels. Fortunately, there's more than one well pumping oil.

So the oil goes straight to the tanker? No, it goes into a feeder pipeline, which then connects to a main pipeline. The main pipeline is 30 feet away? Wrong. It's probably several kilometers or more distant from the main pipeline, maybe even 20 kilometers.

And it's moving at Warp Factor 2 Mr. Sulu? No, oil moves a helluva lot faster than an aquifer (meters/year) but slower than you think. Generally meters per hour.

And then it goes on the tanker? No, then it goes to the processing facility where all the particulate matter, heavy metals (like nickel, vanadium, mercury, thorium, uranium, cobalt etc) are removed as are compressed gasses, and if your field has peaked, then you'll be removing a lot of water/sea-water from the oil.

Illinois Intermediate. They're pumping 25,000 barrels per day with 4,000+ wells. What's wrong with that picture?

A "barrel" of oil is 50% oil and 50% water, because Illinois Intermediate is about extinct on Earth. You have to inject water/sea-water back into the oil field to maintain static pressure and to maintain the integrity of the geologic formation. Or guess what?

Southern Illinois would turn into a giant sink-hole and swallow up whole towns and villages.

Now you can put it on the tanker, except the tanker doesn't go through a worm-hole in the Persian Gulf and emerge in the Gulf of Mexico 30 seconds later. It takes about 8-10 weeks to transit the Arabian Sea to the Red Sea through the Suez Canal across the Mediterranean into the Atlantic then South around the Florida Peninsula to get into the Gulf and off-load on a jetty.

You couldn't even take delivery of Illinois Intermediate in 28 days. 90 days is best you could do. That oil goes into a pipeline up to a processing facility and then to a refinery between East Chicago and Gary, Indiana. It's the only refinery in the US that can refine Illinois Intermediate.

Oil futures contracts require delivery in 90 to 180 days, depending on the type of oil. You can sell or trade the contract in the interim.

If you want to limit speculation, then perhaps limiting the quantity might help.

Corn futures are usually 5,000 bushels per contract. Maybe you could limit oil futures contracts to 5,000 barrels of oil. I'm not really sure that would help. It would aggravate the snot out of the serious speculators, because it would take a lot of effort to buy and sell so many contracts to get the huge gains, and the more contracts you have, the greater the chances of getting stuck. And I should point out that taking delivery is a pain and extremely costly. You pay the mooring fees and wages of the crew while they're sitting in port waiting to off-load. You pay the transport fees (via truck, barge or pipeline) and you pay to lease the tank farms to store the oil (unless you own your own tank farms). That's gets real expensive real fast.

The best thing would probably be to levy a tax on the sale of futures contracts.

Maybe a sliding scale tax that is heavy on the high-end to penalize the problem speculators, so a profit of 50% is taxed at 75% but a profit of 10% is taxed at 0.5%.
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Old 06-25-2011, 11:26 AM
 
4,153 posts, read 5,897,940 times
Reputation: 2920
Quote:
Originally Posted by josh u View Post
Lots of whiners out there. First, no one is stopping the whiners from opening a futures account and profiting from the speculation -- if they think that's the true cause of price swings. It doesn't take that much money to open a futures account. Or just buy an oil ETF.

Secondly, the whiners weren't whining when speculators drove the price of oil down to $35/bbl in late 2008.

It seems that whiners complain about free markets only when they don't know how to benefit from free markets.

Speaking of whiners, you're whining about whiners. And who cares if anyone can open a futures account. People buying commodities and never having the interest in actually owning it. That's not why the oil and gas commodities market was opened for in the first place. What you say to do it the complete opposite and why it needs to be removed or at the very least needs an overhaul. As far as I understand it was put in place for large quantities to be purchased at a lower rate today if you think it will be more per bbl months or years from now when you actually need the product.

Oil isn't the only factor on gas prices. Oil isn't pumped into your vehicle. So your 35/bbl isn't the whole equation. I do however think oil should be right around 60/bbl.

Also do you remember when oil was 145/bbl? How much was gas then compared to the high price of oil and gas this year? It doesn't add up.


The main reason for price swings is OPEC, collusion, and paper trading.
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Old 06-25-2011, 11:27 AM
 
6,631 posts, read 3,555,209 times
Reputation: 3827
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vegas Joe View Post
A bill has been introduced to regulate oil market speculation. Others say it should be outlawed completely and that oil should be considered a "national commodity not subject to futures trading"
What do you think? I am torn myself. This goes against my free market leanings but on the other hand oil is a unique product that has huge effects on the country and its economy and perhaps needs more regulation than- let's say pork bellies or wheat.
If the price of a food gets too high, I have the option of eating less of it and switching to something else. With gasoline, I have no alternatives. Even if it is $10 a gallon, I have to have it because I have to drive. There are no alternatives.
Release: Sanders Introduces Oil Price Speculation Bill - Newsroom: U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (Vermont)
NO and furthermore Drill baby Drill!
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Old 06-25-2011, 11:54 AM
 
14,357 posts, read 12,218,904 times
Reputation: 10267
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vegas Joe View Post
A bill has been introduced to regulate oil market speculation. Others say it should be outlawed completely and that oil should be considered a "national commodity not subject to futures trading"
What do you think? I am torn myself. This goes against my free market leanings but on the other hand oil is a unique product that has huge effects on the country and its economy and perhaps needs more regulation than- let's say pork bellies or wheat.
If the price of a food gets too high, I have the option of eating less of it and switching to something else. With gasoline, I have no alternatives. Even if it is $10 a gallon, I have to have it because I have to drive. There are no alternatives.
Release: Sanders Introduces Oil Price Speculation Bill - Newsroom: U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (Vermont)
We shouldn't outlaw speculation...we should push for alternatives. In Brazil, they have flex fuel cars...so if one fuel type gets expensive, they can use another. There's no good reason that alternative fuels can't be used...except that the oil companies make sure it doesn't happen.
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Old 06-25-2011, 12:52 PM
 
Location: Business ethics is an oxymoron.
921 posts, read 828,440 times
Reputation: 1732
Will never happen. Too many very well connected and influential people make a very nice living peddling paper back and forth. I realize that if speculation was banned, they'd have to go out and find real and honest work, but we are talking reality and not altruism. So if THEY go down, you can be 100% assured that you will go down with them.

As others have said: either join the party and get a piece of it by bringing a few hundred grand to the [poker] table. Or else put up and pay up whatever the Street demands and shut up. That's the beginning of it and that's the end of it.
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Old 07-01-2011, 03:18 PM
 
Location: Bellingham, WA
315 posts, read 609,336 times
Reputation: 223
Speculation needs to go. A price actually based on demand and supply would be reasonable. If you watch the EIA reports weekly you'll see that we log a surplus nearly every week with the exception of spring break, x-mas time, and the beginning of summer vacation.
At a pump price of $2.50-$2.80 a gallon, you see a pretty much even report of supply and demand, indicating to me that should be the real price of oil.
Instead it's up on greece news, down on unemployment numbers...etc etc.
It's a yo-yo of insecurity for everyone from the commuter to the business that needs shipping to be reasonable to turn a profit on their widget.
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Old 02-10-2012, 01:01 PM
 
2 posts, read 1,208 times
Reputation: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
There are alternatives, but you're not interested in investigating or utilizing them.



That's absolutely correct.

As a business, the futures commodity market lets me know far in advance the price of the commodity I need to do business. If I operate a cannery, I can lock in the price of corn now, for later this year.

That makes it very easy for me to ensure that I have sufficient cash or credit to purchase the corn; I know far in advance what my production costs will be; I can plan my production and delivery schedule accordingly if I know I have 3 Million bushels for August and 6 Million for September and so on.



In the end it pretty much averages out, but if you're a savvy buyer, you can come out ahead usually.



Sorry, wrong answer. You're still required to take delivery of oil.

Seriously, I have to ask, what the hell are you people thinking? Do you even understand how futures work? Maybe I should ask if you people understand how the world works.

How the hell am I supposed to take delivery of oil that is still in the ground, or pork bellies that are still on the pig, are corn that just got planted yesterday?

Oil shoots out of the ground in Saudi Arabia, flies through the air and lands 9,000 miles away in my tank farm 30 seconds later? Is that what you thought?

A well pumps 8-18 barrels per day. That's it. And you have no control over that. Mother Nature decides if your well puts out 8 barrels per day or 18 barrels per day or anything in between.

Obviously, it'll take quite a while for the well to pump 300,000 barrels. Fortunately, there's more than one well pumping oil.

So the oil goes straight to the tanker? No, it goes into a feeder pipeline, which then connects to a main pipeline. The main pipeline is 30 feet away? Wrong. It's probably several kilometers or more distant from the main pipeline, maybe even 20 kilometers.

And it's moving at Warp Factor 2 Mr. Sulu? No, oil moves a helluva lot faster than an aquifer (meters/year) but slower than you think. Generally meters per hour.

And then it goes on the tanker? No, then it goes to the processing facility where all the particulate matter, heavy metals (like nickel, vanadium, mercury, thorium, uranium, cobalt etc) are removed as are compressed gasses, and if your field has peaked, then you'll be removing a lot of water/sea-water from the oil.

Illinois Intermediate. They're pumping 25,000 barrels per day with 4,000+ wells. What's wrong with that picture?

A "barrel" of oil is 50% oil and 50% water, because Illinois Intermediate is about extinct on Earth. You have to inject water/sea-water back into the oil field to maintain static pressure and to maintain the integrity of the geologic formation. Or guess what?

Southern Illinois would turn into a giant sink-hole and swallow up whole towns and villages.

Now you can put it on the tanker, except the tanker doesn't go through a worm-hole in the Persian Gulf and emerge in the Gulf of Mexico 30 seconds later. It takes about 8-10 weeks to transit the Arabian Sea to the Red Sea through the Suez Canal across the Mediterranean into the Atlantic then South around the Florida Peninsula to get into the Gulf and off-load on a jetty.

You couldn't even take delivery of Illinois Intermediate in 28 days. 90 days is best you could do. That oil goes into a pipeline up to a processing facility and then to a refinery between East Chicago and Gary, Indiana. It's the only refinery in the US that can refine Illinois Intermediate.

Oil futures contracts require delivery in 90 to 180 days, depending on the type of oil. You can sell or trade the contract in the interim.

If you want to limit speculation, then perhaps limiting the quantity might help.

Corn futures are usually 5,000 bushels per contract. Maybe you could limit oil futures contracts to 5,000 barrels of oil. I'm not really sure that would help. It would aggravate the snot out of the serious speculators, because it would take a lot of effort to buy and sell so many contracts to get the huge gains, and the more contracts you have, the greater the chances of getting stuck. And I should point out that taking delivery is a pain and extremely costly. You pay the mooring fees and wages of the crew while they're sitting in port waiting to off-load. You pay the transport fees (via truck, barge or pipeline) and you pay to lease the tank farms to store the oil (unless you own your own tank farms). That's gets real expensive real fast.

The best thing would probably be to levy a tax on the sale of futures contracts.

Maybe a sliding scale tax that is heavy on the high-end to penalize the problem speculators, so a profit of 50% is taxed at 75% but a profit of 10% is taxed at 0.5%.


A well pumps 8-18 barrels per day. Ever see a oil well fire, from a well that is shooting oil 70ft into th air?

Ever heard of contanga? Speculation account for 70% of the price of a barrel of crude.




[url=http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_31/b4189050970461_page_7.htm]Amber Waves of Pain - BusinessWeek[/url]
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Old 02-10-2012, 01:08 PM
 
2 posts, read 1,208 times
Reputation: 10
Exclamation The Dec. 23, 2008 crash, can it happen again

[SIZE=1][FONT=Californian FB][SIZE=3]It looks like the crude and fuel speculators have reached a new level of self-denial. It would seem they are now raising the price of crude and fuels every time a bear craps in the woods. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB][SIZE=3][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB][SIZE=3]Today as the economic hole in Europe continues to get deeper, the crude speculator found something as stupid as holiday hiring of a mere 10,000 as a reason to rise crude to new heights. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB][SIZE=3][/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB][SIZE=3][FONT=Californian FB][FONT=Californian FB]Really is there anyone, any businessperson, including the speculators who believes the economies of both the US & Europe will do better under the growing load of higher crude and fuel prices. Do the "experts" really think, those still capable of rational thinking, that the world economies can continue supporting crude over $60 a barrel (as Exxon/Mobil CEO Rex W. Tillerson is suggesting ). If so just who are the winners, has there been any real improvement in any economy as a result of higher crude and fuel prices? Can any sane person suggest that crude and fuel price are not a drag in the world economies?[/FONT]


[FONT=Californian FB]Crude is the very fact that most nations were cut off at their knees in November of 2008 and have still not recovered so that you can notice. All this hokum about China is pure bull. China needs both the US & European markets to continue growing. Right now China's population cannot in any way support the Chinese economy alone, by China's own admission that will take another ten years. China has already hit a growing soft spot, with demands for higher wages, better working conditions, and the new move for money up front from American companies producing their products in China. [/FONT]


[FONT=Californian FB][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB]It's the oil speculators that just can't see, or don't care about the damage they are doing by driving crude and fuel price to crippling levels. It's like watching a group of madmen setting around a coal feed campfire in their hand-dug caves playing Russian Roulette, each with a fully loaded machinegun. It's insane. It's just to bad that they think it has to be the working class that pays with their jobs, their homes, their children's future, their very lives, and hope, so a very few can live higher and higher on the hog, while the resulting damage to the other 99% of America doesn't matter. Where is it written that crude speculators (gamblers) can hold nations hostage?[/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB]

[/FONT]

[FONT=Californian FB][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB]U.S. congress has been lax in enforcing existing racketeering laws related crude & fuel price manipulation, laws and regulations such as the RICO Law of 1932, the Hubbs Anti-Racketeering Act of 1946, the Sherman Act, and the Anti Trust laws to name a few to stop speculation spikes from pushing crude, fuel, food, healthcare markets to the point that everyday they increase the danger of another collapse of the worlds economies ...... and the CFTC, well it still can't make up it's mind as to who's side their playing on. [/FONT]



[FONT=Californian FB]It wasn't that long ago, in 2008 the consumer was being faced with making life changing decisions as a result of untethered speculation in crude and fuel prices. The choices were; to buy fuel to get to & from work, or buy heating oil to heat the home, or putting food on the family table, or paying the home mortgage. What happened is that carrying a mortgage became a rich man's luxury that millions of American families could no long afford, yet the U'S. Congress continues to this day to set on it's hands and do nothing to stop the pillaging of the American economy by hedge fund groups the likes of J.P.Morgan, Citigroup, Chase, and Goldman Sachs, and dozens more. During 2008 one hedge fund manager made an income of $3,000,000,000 at $900,000 an hour trading crude, fuels, and gold futures, and at the same time shorting those same markets, knowing that it was just a matter of time before even a strongest economy could not support the never ending rise of crude and fuel prices. Goldman Sachs has spent over three billion in legal fees & fines in just the last three years on fraud changes. Two months ago Blankfein has hired the biggest legal gun in Washington as his legal defense council on more upcoming charges of fraud, and still crude and fuel prices continue to rise ...... [/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB][URL="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/22/us-goldman-blankfein-idUSTRE77L5VK20110822"]http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/22/us-goldman-blankfein-idUSTRE77L5VK20110822[/URL][/FONT]



[FONT=Californian FB][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB]As far back as May of 2008 Congress held congressional hearings on the effects of the sky rocketing crude and fuel markets. It was Michel Greenberger, former director of the CFTC, who had resigned when ordered by the the Bush administration to stay off the backs of the Crude and fuel speculators. It was the result of Greenberger's testimony that opened the eyes of Congress (for a moment) that supply and demand had nothing to do with the never ending rise of crude and fuels. That in fact based on the costs of getting crude out of the ground and to the refineries, crude price should have been in the area of between $25 & $35 a barrel depending on where on the planet the oil came from, not the $147 that plagued the US economy at the time. On November 8th as a result of the crash, crude, in one day, dropped to $32 a barrel as speculators ran screaming back into their caves. [/FONT]

[URL="http://www.michaelgreenberger.com/files/IEF-Greenberger-AppendixVII.pdf"]www.michaelgreenberger.com/files/IEF-Greenberger-AppendixVII.pdf[/URL]



[FONT=Californian FB][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB]As a result of the hearings in June of 2008 Congress mandated the CFTC to develop new regulations to stop the manipulation of crude and fuel prices by January 1st of 2009. But on the very day that the new regulations were due, the chairmen of the CFTC told Congress that they needed until June of 2010 to finish drafting the new regulations, but again in June 10th of 2010 the chairmen told Congress that the draft and implementation of new regulations could not take place until June of 2012. Could this be the big secret ace in the hole President Obama is counting on for reelected, bringing fuel prices down to a win win level for both the "Oil slicks", industry, and the consumer? Don't count on it. [/FONT]

[FONT=Californian FB][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB]We need to get off oil dependency, but not by cutting the legs of the US & world economies. Think of the ten of millions of jobs that would be created by putting solar panels on every home, every office building, every factory, every government building in America, or the planet for that matter .... but then really who's serious the energy dilemma, the speculators, Congress?[/FONT]



[FONT=Californian FB][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB]Today the still untethered speculation in crude and fuel are helping to drag the US & European economies down that long chaotic road to nowhere for 99% of the US population, better known as the working class. The world economies are in worse shape today as the lingering result of the crash then it was in November of 2008. The next crash will have no bottom for the banks to fall on. It could very well be that civilization itself is at risk. [/FONT]


Not that it would help, but the "Oil Slicks" need to take a day off, order a copy of Territorial Imperative. A inquiry into the Animal Origins of Property and Nations. by Robert Ardrey.



[FONT=Californian FB][/FONT][FONT=Californian FB][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB][url=http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/05/13/v-print/114190/speculation-explains-more-about.html]Speculation explains more about oil prices than anything else | McClatchy[/url][/FONT]



[FONT=Californian FB][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB][url=http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/french-president-compares-speculators-to-mafia-0616/]French President Compares Speculators to Mafia | HeatingOil.com[/url][/FONT]



[FONT=Californian FB][/FONT]
[FONT=Californian FB]Greyfox[/FONT]
[/FONT]
[/SIZE][/FONT][/SIZE]
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Old 02-10-2012, 02:26 PM
 
12,660 posts, read 8,296,488 times
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Here we go again. Nothing wrong with speculation that isn't fueled with easy credit. If I can buy it at a 10 to 1 ratio, thats the problem.

Here is where I join hand in hand with the Austrians.
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