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Unread 09-06-2011, 12:11 PM
 
Location: Moscow
1,152 posts, read 1,047,898 times
Reputation: 1200
Just read the whole thread. Wow. Sure are some extreme doom and gloomers here. Seems like recency bias to me.

Pendulums swing. Our economic pendulum was far to the right for most of our lives. It has now swung far to the left. It'll swing back given time.
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Unread 09-06-2011, 05:29 PM
 
2,515 posts, read 774,951 times
Reputation: 361
Quote:
Originally Posted by NJBest View Post
I tend to use "working class" for anyone who must work to keep the bills paid.
The bottom 0.5% of the top 1% is "working class". And those "working class people" were lined up against the wall in Cambodia. So watch out and work your but off to get changes made that will undo the current trends.
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Unread 09-06-2011, 05:32 PM
 
8,271 posts, read 5,112,477 times
Reputation: 4557
Quote:
Originally Posted by newonecoming2 View Post
The bottom 0.5% of the top 1% is "working class". And those "working class people" were lined up against the wall in Cambodia. So watch out and work your but off to get changes made that will undo the current trends.
All it took was to be wearing a pair of glasses to be against the wall in Cambodia, it ensnared a lot more than wealthier class.
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Unread 09-06-2011, 05:49 PM
 
2,515 posts, read 774,951 times
Reputation: 361
Quote:
Originally Posted by slackjaw View Post
All it took was to be wearing a pair of glasses to be against the wall in Cambodia, it ensnared a lot more than wealthier class.
France in the late 1700's, China's cultural revolution. Not fun times. All the end game of excessive wealth concentration. Wealth redistribution has been going on from the middle class to the rich for the last 40 years at least. It is time to push it the other way and then set it at a functional level and keep it there. If the wealthy want more money then they can grow the pie. Getting more wealth in a way that shrinks the pie is bad for everyone and leads to or can lead to lining people up against the wall. Hopefully it will lead to more constructive outcomes like getting everyone together to fix the problem.
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Unread 09-06-2011, 09:24 PM
 
4,504 posts, read 5,616,968 times
Reputation: 3029
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keim View Post
Just read the whole thread. Wow. Sure are some extreme doom and gloomers here.
I would suppose that I am presenting the uber doom of this thread? Sort of amuses me because among folks that call themselves "Doomers," I am accused of being a Business As Usual Cornucopia-type.

Quote:
Seems like recency bias to me.
Well, ok. That interested me, so I looked some up info regarding it.

Is this a fair overview?

The Economic Crisis And Recency Bias

Notice that article is nearly three years old and overall economic crisis is still unfolding around us. Does THAT really sound like something "recent" to you?

Quote:

Pendulums swing.
Pendulums do swing.

However, shifts and step-functions do not.

In that case, a new way, or new order comes to pass, and things shift to align around it. Not some oscillation back and forth.

Quote:
Our economic pendulum was far to the right for most of our lives. It has now swung far to the left. It'll swing back given time.
I see your tag line says Moscow? As in Russia? As in the Former Soviet Union? After the collapse did things swing like a pendulum -- or instead did they fundamentally change?

In the US model, it has been this way since the rise of "Reaganomics" Which was far more the product of Don Regan of Merrill Lynch -- Reagan's Chief of Staff.

The greed that engenders and worships has sucked the wealth to the top, without leaving enough for the bottom to survive without public support. All that is left for the country and the rest is the debt that asset stripping and greed left behind.

Does that really sound like a Pendulum Swing condition to you?

The bottom in the US is now totally dis-empowered, as Corporations now run the country and the .gov. Since the top will not likely repent short of bullets and ropes, how do you see a swing or return to a sustainable model?
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Unread 09-06-2011, 11:27 PM
 
Location: Moscow
1,152 posts, read 1,047,898 times
Reputation: 1200
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
I would suppose that I am presenting the uber doom of this thread? Sort of amuses me because among folks that call themselves "Doomers," I am accused of being a Business As Usual Cornucopia-type.
Actually I wasn't referring to any one particular poster. Overall tone of the thread was what I meant.

By all means, if the shoe fits feel free to wear it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
Well, ok. That interested me, so I looked some up info regarding it.

Is this a fair overview?

The Economic Crisis And Recency Bias

Notice that article is nearly three years old and overall economic crisis is still unfolding around us. Does THAT really sound like something "recent" to you?
Seems a fair overview. Your cited source mentions recency bias means (in a nutshell) that people tend to place undue emphasis on current trends, while giving history too light of weight. When the times are good this bias causes people to think that will continue. When times are sour, the bias causes people to think they won't improve. Certainly sounds like what I'm reading on this thread.

Yes, three years ago does seem recent. Economic trends tend to take years. Take, for instance, the Great Depression. The nation was in a funk for about 10 years. WW2 brought us out of it. How about the stagflation of the 70s. That also lasted longer than three years.

As trends go, I'll also point out that higher economic highs tend to be followed by lower lows. Roaring 20s-depressive 30s. 80s, 90s, and 00s saw a great bull market. Now we have... Recession.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
Pendulums do swing.

However, shifts and step-functions do not.

In that case, a new way, or new order comes to pass, and things shift to align around it. Not some oscillation back and forth.
True. And, when you have figured out how to tell accurately and consistently-in the moment-that this is occuring, you will be a rare individual indeed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
I see your tag line says Moscow? As in Russia? As in the Former Soviet Union? After the collapse did things swing like a pendulum -- or instead did they fundamentally change? ?
Not all Moscow's are in Russia, comrade. I'm in the US.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
In the US model, it has been this way since the rise of "Reaganomics" Which was far more the product of Don Regan of Merrill Lynch -- Reagan's Chief of Staff.

The greed that engenders and worships has sucked the wealth to the top, without leaving enough for the bottom to survive without public support. All that is left for the country and the rest is the debt that asset stripping and greed left behind.

Does that really sound like a Pendulum Swing condition to you?

The bottom in the US is now totally dis-empowered, as Corporations now run the country and the .gov. Since the top will not likely repent short of bullets and ropes, how do you see a swing or return to a sustainable model?
Yes, it does sound like a swing condition to me. Pendulums don't just swing for economics. They swing for labor v management power, too. Example: Why did unions start? The rich/mgmt got too powerful in the early part of the last century. They became abusive. People organized and made the pendulum swing the other direction. Why have unions lost power more recently? They became too powerful. They became abusive. The rich/mgmt organized and moved the pendulum the other way.

I don't foresee a quick fix; nor do I see riots and blood in the streets. I do see a good opportunity to invest in the market right now. Stocks are on sale. I expect them to go up in the longterm and am investing appropriately.
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Unread 09-07-2011, 12:18 AM
 
Location: Midland/Dallas
3,837 posts, read 3,098,609 times
Reputation: 2726
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chango View Post
These days, if you are wealthy you are scorned and shamed and demonized and joked about like never before in this country. It's as if everyone with a positive bank account suddenly became a ridicule-worthy clown like this:
This is simple to explain but the answer is political.
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Unread 09-07-2011, 03:54 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles, Ca
2,739 posts, read 2,958,655 times
Reputation: 2530
It seems like the rich have bad PR....like the oil industry or airlines. They are easy to dislike.

-The media doesn't help. I think they show the rich as out of touch and elite....i.e. a segment on CNBC about private jets. It goes over 97% of peoples heads. Only 3-5% of people go on private jets.

-I think the rich do things that aren't covered in the media. And its easy to be suspicious....i.e., not paying taxes, offshore havens, loopholes, write offs. The difference in capital gain and dividend tax. Is the average mom going to relate to that? Probably not.

I think the rich do things you can't see....i.e. making money on money. Or investing in a CDO. And making $10 million. A bunch of things on a computer screen. They seem insignificant.

I think the fact that so much of wealth now has to do with computer screen entries. Keyboard strokes. Is that wealth?

-It seems like the internet has amplified a lot hate. Look at Justin Bieber. He's gotten more hate than new kids on the block. Or even backstreet boys or nsync. I think the internet has brought out a lot of armchair critics.
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Unread 09-07-2011, 07:39 AM
 
2,515 posts, read 774,951 times
Reputation: 361
“The stock market begins to recover while bonds and gold begin to decline. You move money back in to the stock market and ended up chasing performance.” from here The Economic Crisis And Recency Bias Three years later gold is still going up.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
I would suppose that I am presenting the uber doom of this thread? Sort of amuses me because among folks that call themselves "Doomers," I am accused of being a Business As Usual Cornucopia-type.
In as much as I think that we have a way too high debt to income ratio and that we wont see strong economic growth until that ratio comes way down then I'll stand up and say I'm a doomer. But I prefer to call myself a realist. Realistically we are in deep trouble no way to balance the budget. No way to grow the economy. No way forward. Doom and gloom but hey this is what you get when you have a 30 year long debt bubble.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
Well, ok. That interested me, so I looked some up info regarding it.

Is this a fair overview?

The Economic Crisis And Recency Bias

Notice that article is nearly three years old and overall economic crisis is still unfolding around us. Does THAT really sound like something "recent" to you?
If you listened to the article then you missed out on a good swing in gold vs. the Dow.
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Unread 09-07-2011, 07:49 AM
 
4,504 posts, read 5,616,968 times
Reputation: 3029
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keim View Post
Actually I wasn't referring to any one particular poster. Overall tone of the thread was what I meant.

By all means, if the shoe fits feel free to wear it.
No biggie, either way. Just an observation that I do not think there is much empathy in any direction between one set of groups and others.

Each seem to claim Their Truth -- and That is That. Very narrow minds on many sides from what I see.

Quote:
Seems a fair overview. Your cited source mentions recency bias means (in a nutshell) that people tend to place undue emphasis on current trends, while giving history too light of weight. When the times are good this bias causes people to think that will continue. When times are sour, the bias causes people to think they won't improve. Certainly sounds like what I'm reading on this thread.
Suppose it may depend on how deep and long something runs. Do you actually see any trends or paths that are Leading Out of present downward trend? And not some gay-make-believe "movable" barometer like GDP or "adjusted" unemployment numbers. Talking real stuff. Do you actually see any?

Quote:
Yes, three years ago does seem recent. Economic trends tend to take years. Take, for instance, the Great Depression. The nation was in a funk for about 10 years. WW2 brought us out of it. How about the stagflation of the 70s. That also lasted longer than three years.
Thought that was maybe where you were heading . . . but you think a long world-wide economic downturn that turned to major war that contained the Holocaust, Mass Killing and Mass Rape and then ended in Nukes was a cyclic event rather than a step event?

But let's say that were some sort of cyclic model. So how do you see this one ending? Considering, by your model, it took a major war to end the last one. Getting back Doomer, I know, but it is your model.

Quote:
As trends go, I'll also point out that higher economic highs tend to be followed by lower lows. Roaring 20s-depressive 30s. 80s, 90s, and 00s saw a great bull market. Now we have... Recession.
Or in the longer run-up of the recent -- Overshoot followed by Collapse.

Not saying it so, either way. But by modeling, it is every bit as legit.

Quote:
True. And, when you have figured out how to tell accurately and consistently-in the moment-that this is occuring, you will be a rare individual indeed.
I do not do much regarding prediction -- more along the Scenario Planning methods, if you are familiar? Good stuff to learn and know, if you are not.

Quote:
Not all Moscow's are in Russia, comrade. I'm in the US.
Welcome to the US. {joking). Been to one in Idaho, if I recall. Was hoping maybe Russia in terms of this discussion because they seem further along the timeline on these events.

Had friends in Novosibirsk during and after the collapse, and more recently read some of Dmitry Orlov's observations -- you are familiar with any of his stuff?

Quote:
Yes, it does sound like a swing condition to me. Pendulums don't just swing for economics.
Sure.

Resources (e.g. Oil).

Wars (as we noted of the Great Depression, above).

Quote:

They swing for labor v management power, too. Example: Why did unions start? The rich/mgmt got too powerful in the early part of the last century. They became abusive. People organized and made the pendulum swing the other direction. Why have unions lost power more recently? They became too powerful. They became abusive. The rich/mgmt organized and moved the pendulum the other way.

umm, not so much. It was an intentional .gov planning matter. Just as the encouragement of unions were. The Reagan/Regan era and after intentionally under-cut unions. NAFTA, OPIC, and the various trade deals intentionally under-cut unions. These are not just natural rise and fall of the tides events. What part of your "cycle" do you see looking back prior to unions?

Quote:
I don't foresee a quick fix; nor do I see riots and blood in the streets. I do see a good opportunity to invest in the market right now. Stocks are on sale. I expect them to go up in the longterm and am investing appropriately.
As long as the .gov and top keep some level of Bread and Circus going, I do not see US going for blood and riots too quickly, either. Stop the Bread and Circus -- I am thinking you are Really Really Fatally mistaken.

Might be a good time for Blackwater/Xe stocks.

NOLA/Katrina really did happen, yunno.
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