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Obama just won a second term, which will be detrimental to our economy. I admit, Obama's victory may have great for gays and women's reproductive rights, but when it comes to an economic recovery we have sealed our fate. Here are my predictions for this time in 2016. Bookmark this thread and re-post it when that day comes.
Last but not least the media will finally admit we are nine years into the second Great Depression.
I agree with most except the fall to 5500 of DJIA as We see between 6000-6500. Naturally the market
is an illusion and guided by suggestion of a virtually impossible recovery except in periodic sectors
that inspite of enivitable death catch the eyes of the naive and hopeful. The market is a carrot. We are
105 trillion in debt with a GMP of around 125 trillion. You do the math I did mine and getting prepared
for anarchy.
You do the math I did mine and getting prepared
for anarchy.
How exactly are you doing this?
In late 2014 your prediction in these forums was economic collapse of the international momentary system, largest market crash in US history, and martial law. Where did your math fail and why woud your math be better this year?
Over 100M non-institutionalized working-age Americans are not working. Thus, the OP is spot-on, one year ahead of their predictions. Since 2009, the stock markets have been propped up with stock buybacks by large corporations, meaning they used debt (mostly loans) to buy back their own stocks. Thus the stock markets in no way, shape, or form reflect the real economy.
I'd say we're already in a depression, and have been since the Clinton Admin.
Over 100M non-institutionalized working-age Americans are not working.
I'm a non-institutionalized working age American who isn't working. Does the fact that I, or college students, or homemakers, etc. aren't working somehow validate the OP's claim about unemployment rate of 29%? Of course not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HowardRoarke
Since 2009, the stock markets have been propped up with stock buybacks by large corporations, meaning they used debt (mostly loans) to buy back their own stocks. Thus the stock markets in no way, shape, or form reflect the real economy.
So OP predicts DJIA will be 5570, but he was right even though DJIA is 17,600 because you don't think the DJIA should be that high? That isn't how it works, you might as well say he was right since he should have been right.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HowardRoarke
I'd say we're already in a depression, and have been since the Clinton Admin.
I'd say you've got that conclusion locked in and will suspend reality as needed to chase it.
Lieqiang is correct I did predict that in Fall of of 2015 ( not 2014) that between Sept- Oct. or 7 years since the last crash of 2008 and every 7 year cycles as far back as memory there have been crashes in the market. Answer we did not "get" the jubilee Shemitah which we are in presently ( this chances the playing field economically. Now with a better grasp of Hebrew the crash earlier predicted will occur prior to Sept of 2016 ,but symptomatically as early as March/ April. This crash will be far more catastrophic than the failure of the international monetary system now in a death spiral anyway , yet receiving resuscitation from partners perhaps Arabs or well healed billionaires? My point is you need to be a watchman of indicators ,but always be ready ( lots of food / water and a gun) for collapse. I should have apologized ,but we had a strong case presenting 7 consecutive 7 year crash cycles never until the jubilee ( 7 of 7 's) then a new ball game rolls !!! We gentiles simply didn't get Shemitah!! In retrospect I may have projected the 2015 collapse in late 2014 as Lieqiang recalls.
Over 100M non-institutionalized working-age Americans are not working. Thus, the OP is spot-on, one year ahead of their predictions. Since 2009, the stock markets have been propped up with stock buybacks by large corporations, meaning they used debt (mostly loans) to buy back their own stocks. Thus the stock markets in no way, shape, or form reflect the real economy.
I'd say we're already in a depression, and have been since the Clinton Admin.
Show me the numbers and provide their source. This "100 million adults are not working" garbage is just like Romney's "47% of Americans don't pay taxes" bull manure.
There were approximately 150 million people over 16 in the US in November, 2015 who were employed. That's a little less than half of the total for all Americans. Add in those under 18 and you're up to 224 million. Add in those older than 65 who are mostly retired, and you're up to 268 million. Add in 14 million full time college students who aren't likely to be working in November and you're up to 282 million. Total US population is less than 320 million. Your at least 60 million too high ... and there's no proof that those who aren't working aren't voluntarily out of the workforce as SAHMs, early retirees, etc.
My numbers are from the 2010 US Census and the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
24% of the US population is under 18 and presumably mostly in school (74 million).
13% of the US population is over 65 and presumably mostly retired (40 million).
10% of the US population between 18 and 64 is disabled and presumably has limited employment (19 million).
14 million Americans over the age of 15 are enrolled full time in college, from under grad through professional schools.
Now with a better grasp of Hebrew the crash earlier predicted will occur prior to Sept of 2016 ,but symptomatically as early as March/ April. This crash will be far more catastrophic than the failure of the international monetary system now in a death spiral anyway.
So basically... you were completely wrong on your prediction of impending doom but wait no worries you've got another one lined up? I'm thinking it is safe to assume if we don't get cannibal meltdown in mid 2016 you'll be back on here telling us oops my bad but wait let me tell you about the impending crash of late 2016.
Do you even hear how stupid this is? You are exactly the internet version of the guy with the "end of days" sandwich board that is a cliche mockery of doomsdayers. Just keep being wrong and moving the next end of times into next calendar year, never stopping to ask yourself or explain to others why your infallible logic is always wrong.
So basically... you were completely wrong on your prediction of impending doom but wait no worries you've got another one lined up? I'm thinking it is safe to assume if we don't get cannibal meltdown in mid 2016 you'll be back on here telling us oops my bad but wait let me tell you about the impending crash of late 2016.
Do you even hear how stupid this is? You are exactly the internet version of the guy with the "end of days" sandwich board that is a cliche mockery of doomsdayers. Just keep being wrong and moving the next end of times into next calendar year, never stopping to ask yourself or explain to others why your infallible logic is always wrong.
To be fair, the quantitative easing program was really unprecedented so there are many factors at play which have kept the stock market (temporarily) inflated.
Nobody really can predict when it will collapse due to the extraordinary measures taken by the Fed , but history shows that cycles occur every ~7 years. Wages have been flat for 90% of Americans since 2008, while at the same time all the TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS in unprecedented money created by the Fed has gone to less than 1% of the population. The Feds favorite member banks were bailed out, and now have only grown to become more powerful and to control more of our economy-the same banks and bankers that wrecked the global economy in 2008. Nothing has been fixed, nobody has been prosecuted. That is very dangerous IMO. These banks have even started trading synthetic CDOs again, as alluded to in The Big Short.
There was also an article on YahooFinance today-35% of the US population is not in the labor force, which is up from 31% 10 years ago. That doesn't seem right, when Millennials are turning 18 more frequently than Boomers are retiring.
To be fair, the quantitative easing program was really unprecedented so there are many factors at play which have kept the stock market (temporarily) inflated.
Nobody really can predict when it will collapse due to the extraordinary measures taken by the Fed , but history shows that cycles occur every ~7 years. Wages have been flat for 90% of Americans since 2008, while at the same time all the TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS in unprecedented money created by the Fed has gone to less than 1% of the population. The Feds favorite member banks were bailed out, and now have only grown to become more powerful and to control more of our economy-the same banks and bankers that wrecked the global economy in 2008. Nothing has been fixed, nobody has been prosecuted. That is very dangerous IMO. These banks have even started trading synthetic CDOs again, as alluded to in The Big Short.
There was also an article on YahooFinance today-35% of the US population is not in the labor force, which is up from 31% 10 years ago. That doesn't seem right, when Millennials are turning 18 more frequently than Boomers are retiring.
The key question is what, if anything, would be the incentive for the Bankers to change their strategy to redistribute wealth from the middle class to the top .1 of 1%?
If history repeats yet again, it will be a massive Bubble Bursting (henceforth called the Big Bang) which will lead to massive social unrest. Anyone who follows world politics and current politics knows that social instability is rising quite rapidly in most parts of the world and nothing worries Bankers more than social unrest. They can easily lose their trillions over night.
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