My 2013 predictions... (money, unemployment, 100,000, stores)
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Three of four years of casual study on my part runs close to a PhD by others.
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The proof of what I have been spouting is good enough for a PhD thesis in economics.
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Originally Posted by pie_row
I have in the works a 600 mpg vehicle. At that level bio fuel looks good.
Your arrogance and ignorance could fill volumes of study. This isn't new, this just shows that you are a true crackpot. The number 1 trait of all crackpots is that they overestimate their own knowledge and ability. The Dunning–Kruger effect has shown that the more ignorant some one is the more they over-estimate their ability or knowledge. This has nothing to do with your Autism...it is a common trait seen in severe schizophrenia, bipolar, and schizoaffective disorder.
I work with the mentally ill as my service to Christ and this is fairly common. Before Christmas we helped "The Smartest Human" off his street corner lecture hall and into a shelter. I have not witnessed anyone so ignorant of their own abilities to claim to be equivalent to a PhD in a subjects after 3-4 years of casual study, and that a few blog posts on a single thread is equivalent to a doctoral thesis that usually average over 1,200 pages (plus research).
I am sorry for your disability, but I think these years without a caretaker have really caused noticeable damage. If you are in the Emerald City area we can help you get the professional help you need, but in some fashion please find help as soon as you can.
It would take a black swan event for enough people to say, enough of financial irreconcilability.
Supply side economics is simply let us run up a credit cad bill. This is ruining our country over the long term. We need every able bodied person to be working and to be working at a high nominal rate of pay. The reason is demographics. Too many old people and not enough young people to take care of them. If it isn't worth so much an hr then it isn't worth doing in the US. MY guess on how much is around $30 an hr.
My take on financial responsibility. Provide enough economic stimulus to get full employment. This would be privet sector as the public sector is already over sized. How you go about this doesn't matter. But a check to everyone would be fair as it would give the people hurt most by inflation the money first. Maintain full employment with continued economic stimulus as needed. Total debt as % of GDP needs to come down. Growing the economy is the best way to do this but there are several things pushing against this. The size of the total debt is part of the problem. High total debt means high insurance premiums. This is my opinion. Dropping total debt means the cost of the FIRE sector of the economy comes down in % GDP. My opinion is that high total debt favors selling things over making things. The reason I think this is that selling something adds the most value for the lest amount of work. With high total debt high overhead things with low return don't get done as they don't service enough of the total debt. With low total debt and high savings rate low margin high overhead things tend to get done. Sales are debt driven, and manufacturing is savings driven. That is my opinion.
Where savings take place has a profound impact on how the economy grows over time. Saving in the stock market gets you asset bubbles. Saving in banks tends to drive exports. The market may not demand a high enough savings rate to balance trade, so in my opinion we need an enforced savings plan. There are other trade barriers that we can put in place short of taxes on imports.
You could put a tax on gasoline and use it to subsidies the purchase of domestically produced electric vehicles. A system that has enough photo voltaic and two batteries would cost several $100k. That is the cost estimate based on small volume production prices several years ago. That estimate wasn't that rigorous. But a $1 per gallon tax would get you $125 billion a year in revenue. (That was when I did the estimate.) Getting that money spent on domestic production would help rebuild our production base. It would also tend to cut our oil dependency. If you Google (PV 4 EV) you will find some things I have written about this.
Why not make taxes on imports a function of how much the workers doing the work are getting paid? If they make US minimum wage or better then no tax. If they make less than have the tax progressive so that at zero the tax would approximate 2X the US minimum wage.
Why not set the minimum wage as a function of several things. Up the minimum wage to keep the total debt at 125% of GDP or less ( this would have to take into account the contraction of the economy in a recession.) Up the minimum wage to keep the price of houses in line with our ability to pay. The economic hang over of inflation is far less painful than the economic hang over of deflation. Asset bubble hurt on the downside. A bubble can be turned into inflation in my opinion by increasing wages to support asset valuations.
Why not key the minimum wage to the top total compensation packages in America? (Say the average of the top 20?) Everyone complains about wealth redistribution. You can set the size of the pie with the minimum wage law. You can make more than the next person but if you make it to the top you drag the bottom with you. This would tend to put an economic disincentive to move jobs to lower wage markets.
The way I envision this plan working is like this. Drive to full employment with effective economic stimulus. This puts everyone to work. Upping the minimum wage gets us a new housing bubble. But more like housing inflation instead as the prices would not come back down. This would buy us the time to grow the economy into a healthy state. Write the tax codes and adopt policies that would grow a healthy economy.
This happening would constitute a black swan event as looking forward there is no way this will happen. It needs to or the functional equivalent of what I've been talking about needs to happen.
My sanity has been publicly questioned. I freely admit that I am whacked out crazy as I really think that a plan like this one will get adopted and it will get adopted soon.
ever notice in city-data forums those wth the strongest opinions of how things should be , always seem to be those with the least amount of money , poor paying jobs or have their own money at risk following their own bull-sh*t ?
it is like believing their own bul-sh*t just never seems to make them much money.
like i say most are so busy blaming the dealer instead of working on playing their cards that they end up committing their own financial suicide by spending their life complaining about things...
things in life never play out how we want or expect and those that don't learn how to make lemonade from those lemons are doomed to fail eventually.
Last edited by mathjak107; 01-14-2013 at 04:00 AM..
My sanity has been publicly questioned. I freely admit that I am whacked out crazy as I really think that a plan like this one will get adopted and it will get adopted soon.
Well, I see that you couldn't stop yourself from posting more crazy stuff even after being refuting many times. I guess any attention, even negative attention, is better then being isolated.
If you would like I can publish all the wacked out things you have been direct messaging me.
Including lacking the integrity to twist my words in offering to get you mental health intervention actually meant taking money from my family and fully fund your crackpot ravings because you are flat broke. Since people who love you keep giving you money to get medication, or those "supplements" you talked about lacking that keep you from going around the bend, which you instead waste on these crazy ideas for the last decade. Ideas you have said several times if you state them, or actually make that 600 mpg car, will get everyone involved murdered by some shadowy organization.
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Originally Posted by mathjak107
ever notice in city-data forums those wth the strongest opinions of how things should be , always seem to be those with the least amount of money , poor paying jobs or have their own money at risk following their own bull-sh*t ?
I think it is largely because crackpots tend to lack a lot of things normal people take for granted. Like having grounding in reality for their opinions, social skills, hobbies, and self knowledge. I've found every crackpot here so far knows they have an illness from others in the "real world," but their view of reality is so damaged they think the entire rest of the world is the problem.
Their theories is usually the only thing crackpots tend to have in their lives. They make up for lack of data, or even reasoned argument, with pure volume. When they start people often try to dispute what they say, like we have with Pie, but they just spew immense volumes of crap till most people get up and leave. They become isolated with their delusional ideas and think everyone else is part of some conspiracy.
Well, I see that you couldn't stop yourself from posting more crazy stuff even after being refuting many times. I guess any attention, even negative attention, is better then being isolated.
The eviorment that I was raised in wasn't that positive.
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Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer
If you would like I can publish all the wacked out things you have been direct messaging me.
Including lacking the integrity to twist my words in offering to get you mental health intervention actually meant taking money from my family and fully fund your crackpot ravings because you are flat broke.
You have my permission to publish where I said those things. AS I didn't. I asked you to contact someone and independently verify my story.
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Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer
Since people who love you keep giving you money to get medication, or those "supplements" you talked about lacking that keep you from going around the bend, which you instead waste on these crazy ideas for the last decade.
$2 a day for one 3.5 oz Kroger brand pepperoni package. My family money has dried up do to a technical problem.
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Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer
Ideas you have said several times if you state them, or actually make that 600 mpg car, will get everyone involved murdered by some shadowy organization.
You had mentioned someone that was working on a 500 mpg car what happened to him?
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Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer
I think it is largely because crackpots tend to lack a lot of things normal people take for granted. Like having grounding in reality for their opinions, social skills, hobbies, and self knowledge. I've found every crackpot here so far knows they have an illness from others in the "real world," but their view of reality is so damaged they think the entire rest of the world is the problem.
Did you see the movie A Beautiful Mind? I've done a bit of thinking. In the first or second grade I couldn't read so when it was time to do English I would sit and talk quietly to the teacher. When the kids would come up to th teacher to ask for help The questions were really stupid so I asked the next kid in line to read me the question and I would see if I could help. The kid did and I did. So can you answer this question for me. When did it stop being normal for me to, not be able to o the work, but to be able to help someone that could do the work and start to be proof that I am crazy? I can't get an Engineering degree but I have helped masters candidates in engineering with the theoretical end of their homework. Again when did this stop being normal for me and start to be proof that I am crazy? I can't get a job at McDonald's But I have figured out how to push the economy so that I can. Based on my life experience this isn't so crazy for me.
I have asked you repeatedly to independently verify my capabilities and lack there of. You have flatly refused.
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Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer
Their theories is usually the only thing crackpots tend to have in their lives. They make up for lack of data, or even reasoned argument, with pure volume.
I have two friends that are working on my theories. (In Mechanical Engineering.) One is a 30 year A&P mechanic that has an Electrical engineering degree and a masters in computer science. The other is a very good salesman. I've asked you repeatedly to contact my A&P mechanic friend and you have refused.
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Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer
When they start people often try to dispute what they say, like we have with Pie, but they just spew immense volumes of crap till most people get up and leave.
OK I think that inflation is the way out of this current economic mess. The Fed is trying QE infinity. The Fed is trying to get a small positive inflation rate. The Fed is also blowing bubbles. Secrets Of The Plunge Protection Team They are doing this in response to a presidential directive signed by Ronald Reagan. Bubbles are economically unsustainable long term. Inflation on the other hand even tho it is painful is economically sustainable. With true inflation you tend to get full employment. Full employment is what I care about. How To Profit From The Impending Bursting Of The Education Bubble, pt 2 - "Knowledge How", Replicating Grecian Insolvency & Why Most Diplomas Are Depreciating Assets In Real Terms Reggie Middleton has a thesis about an education bubble. Inflation invalidates his thesis. The economic lever that can get true inflation in the current macro picture is the minimum wage law. That coupled with more QE. (QE infinity2 anyone) Or more effectively printing money and handing it out to everyone. Will get high wages and higher prices. What we have now is downwards pressure on wages and higher prices. Stagflation.
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Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer
They become isolated with their delusional ideas and think everyone else is part of some conspiracy.
What I want from you is this. To contact my buddy that you say is a figment of my imagination and verify my story. My plan is to build a machine shop and then build a high end race engine. (My buddy has the capability to do this by himself.) Now you claim to be a man of god. What I would ask of you is that if you verify my story that you pray for the success of my plan. (Does Christ teach helping those people that are good and not those people that are bad? Or does he teach helping everyone in need and letting God sort out the good from the bad.)
Also if you verify my story that you ask a group of people to pray for its success. That is it.
My views on education are base on two sources. First is my personal experience with having a profound learning disability and the lack of help I got with it in school and the second is the book, The Underground History of Education in America by John Taylor Gatto.
don't make fun. even a broken watch is right 2x a day.
as they say , if you are going to predict then predict ofton. eventually you will be right but the truth is you may be quite poor along the way from believing your own bull-sh*t which is the way it has turned out now for 146 years.
those who never act because their crystal ball sees trouble ahead have usually ended up going no where.
Last edited by mathjak107; 01-15-2013 at 03:53 AM..
Including lacking the integrity to twist my words in offering to get you mental health intervention actually meant taking money from my family and fully fund your crackpot ravings because you are flat broke.
I made the observation that you are a (do good)-er. Also that I need good done. My observation was based on your saying that you did volunteer work taking kids to school on snow days as well as your stating that you had helped the world's smartest man get off his street corner and into a shelter. If this caracturization of the things that you've said you've done was in error then I apologies.
Quote:
Originally Posted by EmeraldCityWanderer
Since people who love you keep giving you money to get medication, or those "supplements" you talked about lacking that keep you from going around the bend, which you instead waste on these crazy ideas for the last decade.
Now this is you twisting my words. Last year My mom gave me $1k extra for X-mass and said that I should buy something nice with it with this money I tried to build one of these. Build Your Own CNC Router, CNC Machine, or 3D Printer I needed $600 a month to replace the income I had at that time. Where can you get a 720% return on your money? Give a man a fish he eats for a day. Teach him how to fish and he eats for a life time. Was it not wise to spend that money on trying to get a source of future income for myself?
As for the future we have been running on credit for 3 decades. It looks to me like the bill has come due. Can we put off paying that bill for a bit? Maybe.
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exactly. 
