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Old 03-12-2013, 08:28 PM
 
1,374 posts, read 2,254,082 times
Reputation: 1439

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon
What I don't like is your extreme negativity. For instance in 2000 everyone thought the smog was fog. Now the media is allowed to complain about it, and the government is promising to do something about it. Remember there was a time when LA and London was covered in smog. And at that time their GDP per capita was higher than China today.
So criticizing China is off-limits? I hate to break it to you, but China doesn't live in a bubble; everything they do affects the world around them. Outsiders are going to look critically at China's pollution and waste until something is done to rectify it. The fact that it has taken the government so long to acknowledge it says volumes. Nobody is saying the West has been perfect when it comes to pollution, but they did something about it once they understood the severity and extent of damage that was being caused.

Quote:
China is an inward looking country. They are not interested in your approval. The reason they force companies to share their trade secrets is because they want to start producing them themselves. China does not want to be a subsidiary of America where companies are taking 50% in profit.
Like I said, China can't have it both ways...if they want to be a respected economic player they can't get there by stealing from others.

Many Americans are vocally critical about the outsourcing of jobs to China, which is why reshoring is beginning to occur. GE, Apple, Intel, and other major global companies have been bringing jobs back to the US. We don't want our jobs going to China, just like China no longer wants to be "America's subsidiary." I think we actually agree on something.

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Earlier cars were produced abroad and imported into China. Now they are produced in China and sold at much lower prices. Many of those cars are then exported back to America/Europe.
False. There are NO cars assembled in China that are exported to the US. Maybe Europe, but not the US. Some US cars use Chinese suppliers for certain components, but that is the furthest extent. China plays a very small role in the US car market. Chinese domestic cars are not sold in the US because they don’t meet stringent US safety standards. The Qoros brand is the closet China has come to tapping into the European market, and it remains to be seen how well it will be received over there.

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That is why the manufacturing industry in Europe and America is collapsing. They can't compete against Chinese and Brazilian car factories.
The vast majority of vehicles sold in the US or Canada are produced in North America, while the vast majority sold in Europe are produced in Europe. Automakers don't build cars in China or Brazil to be exported to the US or Europe. A Ford built in Brazil or China is built specifically for the South American or Southeast Asian market.

There have been tens of thousands of jobs brought back to Michigan by Ford and GM, many of them to produce vehicles in the US that are being exported globally to Europe and Asia. Other manufacturing jobs that are returning because US productivity is higher and it no longer makes sense to ship parts to China to be assembled, then ship them all the way back as oil prices hover around $100/barrel. Europe is struggling, but saying Europe’s manufacturing industry is collapsing is a wee bit melodramatic. The situation in the UK or Germany is much different than the situation in Spain or Greece.

Quote:
Chinese people are not interested in them. They are too expensive.
Like I pointed out earlier, 70% of the cars sold in China are foreign brands. Clearly they are interested in them.

Last edited by mustang84; 03-12-2013 at 08:36 PM..
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Old 03-13-2013, 04:15 AM
 
Location: Tianjin, China
3,062 posts, read 2,560,424 times
Reputation: 1693
Quote:
Originally Posted by cpg35223 View Post
Okay. This argument borders on bizarre. Essentially you're accusing someone of socialistic thinking for actually criticizing the overbuilding of real estate due to the demands of unrealistic state planning. The oversupply of housing in China has nothing to do with capitalism. It is state planning run amok, operating in complete absence of market awareness or discipline.
What? Oversupply of housing? In China there is a desperate lack of good housing, not an oversupply. The only kind of oversupply China has, is bad housing.

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We actually saw the same basic effect happen beginning in 1996 when the government changed policy to actively act as an agent for real estate ownership through the offices of FHA, FMAE, FMAC, VA, etc. By loosening guidelines for the credit challenged, home prices, which had typically tracked with inflation, suddenly became utterly detached from reality. At first, there was a 1-2% difference between the rise of home prices and that of inflation. By the time the boom was in full swing, the difference was around the 15-17%. What's more, there are plenty of historical precedents for the adverse effects of wholesale government intervention in the real estate markets. Japan for one in the late 80s. Spain is going through it right now. Australia tried the same thing at the end of the 19th Century, and wound up taking a 10% haircut to their GDP as a result.
Really? That is your comparison. America since 1996? Did this happen in America too?



You can't just look at increasing prices and conclude they are the same.

Quote:
The vacancy rate in Beijing in housing is roughly 30%
Sure, but what kind of homes are vacant. Most of the homes you will find vacant are terrible homes who they are unable to rent out. Many of the homeowners are overpricing their property.

It is a little hard to get them out of the market, because sellers know the government wants to buy them up, and hence they want what they believe is the market worth.

New apartment buildings are selling like a hot bread, especially in the city centre. The extra supply is a good thing, it will lead to lower property prices, something China really needs.

If we take a look at property prices in Shanghai, it has stayed flat since 2010. That is at the same time wages is increasing by 10% a year. Each year, houses are getting cheaper in China and that is because house construction is so high.



Quote:
In short, even if Chinese middle-class incomes continue to rise at their present rate (Which they most assuredly will not), it will take at least another decade before the price/income ratio even manages to equal that of Japan in 1989. And we all know what happened to Japan that year. Their economy has yet to recover from that debacle 24 years later.
Again, completely clueless. Japan has recovered from that long time ago. The reason their growth wasn't higher was because their potential growth dropped. Their growth per worker has been better than Europe, but they are aging. The biggest problem in Japan at the moment is the high public debt, not the crisis in 1990.

But as shown in this link,http://dailyreckoning.com/files/2010...04-14-10-5.gif property prices are not keeping up with GDP per capita increases. So it seems like China is heading towards the right direction.

Last edited by Camlon; 03-13-2013 at 05:29 AM..
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Old 03-13-2013, 04:34 AM
 
Location: Tianjin, China
3,062 posts, read 2,560,424 times
Reputation: 1693
Quote:
Originally Posted by mustang84 View Post
So criticizing China is off-limits? I hate to break it to you, but China doesn't live in a bubble; everything they do affects the world around them. Outsiders are going to look critically at China's pollution and waste until something is done to rectify it. The fact that it has taken the government so long to acknowledge it says volumes. Nobody is saying the West has been perfect when it comes to pollution, but they did something about it once they understood the severity and extent of damage that was being caused.
I am not saying you can not criticize China. But obviously your hate for China influences your economic analysis and make them useless.

Quote:
Like I said, China can't have it both ways...if they want to be a respected economic player they can't get there by stealing from others.
Maybe they can. People like you who do not respect China do not seem to stop them.

But what you don't seem to understand is that China does not want or care about your approval. China is a country who cares about themselves, and they are respected through their economic strength.

Quote:
Many Americans are vocally critical about the outsourcing of jobs to China, which is why reshoring is beginning to occur. GE, Apple, Intel, and other major global companies have been bringing jobs back to the US. We don't want our jobs going to China, just like China no longer wants to be "America's subsidiary." I think we actually agree on something.
America can't send the jobs back to America. If you did the price of everything would drastically increase. The problem in the west is that the west is dependent on cheap labour in poor countries. Just look around you, how much have you made? How much is even American made? If everyting is going to be America made, then you will have to accept drastic drop in living standard.

I also find it interesting that Americans like you hate China for polluting, but China is producing the goods you are using. And you don't even get to suffer the domestic pollution they are creating.


Quote:
False. There are NO cars assembled in China that are exported to the US. Maybe Europe, but not the US. Some US cars use Chinese suppliers for certain components, but that is the furthest extent. China plays a very small role in the US car market. Chinese domestic cars are not sold in the US because they don’t meet stringent US safety standards.
Maybe, in your dream world. But in reality they are GM plans to export cars from China to the US - Telegraph
Chrysler, China's Chery sign export deal - Business - Autos | NBC News

Also, there are plenty of japanese, european and korean companies who are producing cars in China. They are exporting those cars to America. If you look at car parts it is even worse.

Also, Chinese production standards are improving. China is not like India who has very low prices, but also very low quality. The quality of Chinese goods are improving. Remember there was a time when Japan produced bad quality cheap goods as well.

Quote:
The Qoros brand is the closet China has come to tapping into the European market, and it remains to be seen how well it will be received over there.
Who said it had to be Chinese owned.

Quote:
Like I pointed out earlier, 70% of the cars sold in China are foreign brands. Clearly they are interested in them.
Strawman. I said they weren't interested in the most advanced and expensive cars. I never said they weren't interested in foreign brands.

Hence, China does not care if they refuse to release the newest models.
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Old 03-13-2013, 05:51 AM
 
1,374 posts, read 2,254,082 times
Reputation: 1439
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
I am not saying you can not criticize China. But obviously your hate for China influences your economic analysis and make them useless.

Being critical of something doesn't equate with hate. You are making assumptions.

Maybe they can. People like you who do not respect China do not seem to stop them.

You are making assumptions about someone you do not know. I respect how far China has come in the last 20 years, but I think they can do better.

But what you don't seem to understand is that China does not want or care about your approval. China is a country who cares about themselves, and they are respected through their economic strength.

America can't send the jobs back to America. If you did the price of everything would drastically increase. The problem in the west is that the west is dependent on cheap labour in poor countries. Just look around you, how much have you made? How much is even American made? If everyting is going to be America made, then you will have to accept drastic drop in living standard.

Jobs are slowly coming back as I speak. Look it up. I've already said that higher oil prices, America's productivity edge, and China's rising wages are having an effect. Not to mention the upcoming 3D printing revolution that will create an upheaval of the traditional manufacturing model. I thought you don't want to be America's subsidiary (your words), so you should be happy about it?

I also find it interesting that Americans like you hate China for polluting, but China is producing the goods you are using. And you don't even get to suffer the domestic pollution they are creating.

Again, the hate word. We don't get to suffer? You do realize that pollution travels via air currents, right? And that climate change affects us all?

Maybe, in your dream world. But in reality they are GM plans to export cars from China to the US - Telegraph
Chrysler, China's Chery sign export deal - Business - Autos | NBC News

Funny, you cited 2007 and 2009 articles that never happened. This was right before GM's and Chrysler's bankruptcy. They have abandoned those plans and have been reinvesting in Midwest US production. Chery's aren't sold here because they couldn't meet our safety standards. A lot has changed in five years...you need to get up to speed.

Also, there are plenty of japanese, european and korean companies who are producing cars in China. They are exporting those cars to America. If you look at car parts it is even worse.

Wrong. Toyota and Hyundai produce almost all of their models in the US now because, again, manufacturing is shifting to the local model instead of relying on exports. As long as oil prices continue to go up, you are not going to see Chinese cars exported to the US.

>>>>Honda, Toyota Shift More Production to America


Also, Chinese production standards are improving. China is not like India who has very low prices, but also very low quality. The quality of Chinese goods are improving. Remember there was a time when Japan produced bad quality cheap goods as well.

But they still have far to go, and the rapid improvement is thanks to foreign intellectual property. Japan and South Korea didn't have to steal to create innovative products.

Who said it had to be Chinese owned.


Strawman. I said they weren't interested in the most advanced and expensive cars. I never said they weren't interested in foreign brands.

Really? Because China is now one of the largest markets for luxury and exotic vehicles. You are assuming things without doing any research.

Hence, China does not care if they refuse to release the newest models.
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Old 03-13-2013, 01:10 PM
 
Location: Tianjin, China
3,062 posts, read 2,560,424 times
Reputation: 1693
Quote:
Originally Posted by mustang84 View Post
Being critical of something doesn't equate with hate. You are making assumptions.
Yep, it does not equal to it, but in your case it does as you base it on many irrational arguments such as the square meter argument before. When I responded it, you ignored it like I have never written it before.

Quote:
You are making assumptions about someone you do not know. I respect how far China has come in the last 20 years, but I think they can do better.
No, you don't. You have posted negative post after negative posts. You haven't mentione a single time you respect how far they have gotten in the last 20 years.

All countries could have done better.

Quote:
Jobs are slowly coming back as I speak. Look it up. I've already said that higher oil prices, America's productivity edge, and China's rising wages are having an effect. Not to mention the upcoming 3D printing revolution that will create an upheaval of the traditional manufacturing model. I thought you don't want to be America's subsidiary (your words), so you should be happy about it?
Well, that depends on the industry. But in some industries you are right. Also, China is not the only country where you can produce goods. Rising prices for shoe production lead to companies moving to Vietnam, not back to America.

Reality is this. Americans are dependent on poor countries. Half of the wealth in America is based on buying cheap labor incentive goods, and exporting high manufacturing goods. There is no risk that US will move all production back to America, because you can't afford it. It means a huge drop in living standards.

Quote:
Again, the hate word. We don't get to suffer? You do realize that pollution travels via air currents, right? And that climate change affects us all?
Oh buhu. You might get a few extra micrograms per cubic meter when China has 300-400. It is Chinese people who mainly suffer from the pollution to produce the goods that you are using. But still you hate China for polluting.

Also, I have seen you plenty of times mention how horrible China are for pollution, although America pollute more to its neighbors. But how many times have you mentioned the current movement in favour of reducing pollution.

The worst part is that if they really tried to focus on reducing pollution it would supress economic activity and you would use it as some kind of argument for China collapsing. Whatever they do, you will still hate them.


Quote:
Funny, you cited 2007 and 2009 articles that never happened. This was right before GM's and Chrysler's bankruptcy. They have abandoned those plans and have been reinvesting in Midwest US production. Chery's aren't sold here because they couldn't meet our safety standards. A lot has changed in five years...you need to get up to speed.

Wrong. Toyota and Hyundai produce almost all of their models in the US now because, again, manufacturing is shifting to the local model instead of relying on exports. As long as oil prices continue to go up, you are not going to see Chinese cars exported to the US.
You are right about cars, its a very protected market. Although, most American cars contain car parts from China.

China is mainly expanding domestically and exporting to poor countries. Its hard to export anyway, duties are high for most countries and it makes no sense for them to hire American workers to make company in America. The Japanese already does that with much success.

Quote:
But they still have far to go, and the rapid improvement is thanks to foreign intellectual property. Japan and South Korea didn't have to steal to create innovative products.
Japan and South Korea didn't steal products? Thats excactly what they did. They looked at American products and created a cheaper version.

Quote:
Really? Because China is now one of the largest markets for luxury and exotic vehicles. You are assuming things without doing any research.
I said China, not 1% China. Big difference. For the average person, they couldn't care less if they are not producing the most advanced versions in China.

Those rich people can import those cars and pay the duties anyway. They are rich enough.
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