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Old 03-19-2013, 12:28 AM
 
Location: The North
4,981 posts, read 8,716,013 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ducviloxi View Post
$310k is far below the median price in many middle class neighborhoods for an entry level home in Orange and LA county, perhaps you bought elsewhere? I believe the median now in OC is north of $500k.

For instance I was looking at some entry level townhomes in Orange, Fullerton etc. the asking price for 1600 sqft started at $450,000... anything less was unsavory inventory in disrepair.

$450,000 for a middle class neighborhood with a mix of blue and lower white collar workers does not seem rational to me.
The thing is the blue and lower white collar workers aren't the ones buying now. Some of them are selling, others lost their home because they stretched to make it under the loans of the past. This is sort of mild gentrification happening where the people leaving have their one shot at a windfall in that they sell a greatly appreciated home now and either move to cheaper inland locations or out of state. Those buying have a lot of resources and just want a good location near to earning opportunities.
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Old 03-19-2013, 12:49 PM
 
7,282 posts, read 8,424,716 times
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It would be different if there were massive numbers of house sales at inflated prices but that isn't the case. Even in the markets where they are considered "hot" and prices are appreciating at quick rates, the volume of those sales is actually quite low.

The fact is that most people didn't go into a foreclosure or short sale. Most people still pay their mortgages and live in their homes. The news media has a way, as they always had, of sensationalizing individual stories to depict a national issue. The single parent woman who cries about having to move out and rent. Tears flow and it gets the story. The real story was that she should never have bought that house with no money down, an adjustable rate mortgage and a sale price far above what she could afford when the inevitable rate adjustments kicked in. She didn't plan for the balloon payment, the new car she had to have, the new clothes to go with the new car, the xBox, big screen TV in every room, kids with mobile phones and those thrice weekly hair and nail appointments.

While it is true that in many places, entire neighborhoods look vacant, that still isn't the entire country.

Anyone who bought a house 10 years ago is probably doing fine. Those that thought a house was a quick way to harvest money out of equity not only paid the price but then the government in its infinite wisdom, decided everyone should chip in to help. That is why the economy is dragging along.

The economy was fixed a while ago. But like pulling the bandage off slowly instead of quick, the pain drags on to the bitter end instead of that sharp bite that should have been only a memory by this time.
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Old 03-19-2013, 02:12 PM
 
Location: Living on the Coast in Oxnard CA
15,374 posts, read 25,673,367 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ducviloxi View Post
$310k is far below the median price in many middle class neighborhoods for an entry level home in Orange and LA county, perhaps you bought elsewhere? I believe the median now in OC is north of $500k.

For instance I was looking at some entry level townhomes in Orange, Fullerton etc. the asking price for 1600 sqft started at $450,000... anything less was unsavory inventory in disrepair.

$450,000 for a middle class neighborhood with a mix of blue and lower white collar workers does not seem rational to me.
Our home is on the coast in Ventura county in Oxnard. We live in the north side of the city in a desirable section of town.
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Old 03-19-2013, 02:22 PM
 
12,973 posts, read 12,197,606 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Willy702 View Post
Where has it doubled in the last year? In even the hottest markets you'd be hard pressed to find more than 40-50% appreciation in specific areas.
Adagio - Buffalo and Vegas.

There was nothing natural about the bubble burst. It was done by the lenders who controlled over 90% of the market in Las Vegas. Why would a new build bubble be any different?

I see recovery to rational numbers so far. But if it accelerates any more or extend for a long period it could well turn into a bubble.
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Old 03-19-2013, 02:30 PM
 
9,902 posts, read 14,028,757 times
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It was a bubble because banks in their greed opened doors to unqualifying buyers which, in its turn, created rush in the market and sucked in anyone who could sign a paperwork or have someone sign for them.

As of today, I know nothing of those conversations, as I do not watch TV for years by now. But I am a practical guy. I look outside the window, instead of looking outside through TV screen. Reality is - you can not buy a house. Houses are fought for. Prices are still driven up by speculators, in the best capitalist traditions. Here, unless it's a total junk, immigrants will outbid you, driven by real estate agents, who get more wind in their sails.

That's outside the window.
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Old 03-19-2013, 04:37 PM
 
12,973 posts, read 12,197,606 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
It was a bubble because banks in their greed opened doors to unqualifying buyers which, in its turn, created rush in the market and sucked in anyone who could sign a paperwork or have someone sign for them.

As of today, I know nothing of those conversations, as I do not watch TV for years by now. But I am a practical guy. I look outside the window, instead of looking outside through TV screen. Reality is - you can not buy a house. Houses are fought for. Prices are still driven up by speculators, in the best capitalist traditions. Here, unless it's a total junk, immigrants will outbid you, driven by real estate agents, who get more wind in their sails.

That's outside the window.
Not really. Here in Las Vegas it was primarily driven by investors from CA using the equity in their homes. They made q bundle and went on to Phoenix and Texas to multiply their gain. Locals ended up with most of the problem. For most their sin was to buy at market at the wrong time.

There were of course those who got in over their heads and there were a number of local speculators who got their clocks cleaned when the music stopped.

But most of the damage was taken by those who were just in the wrong place at the wrong time.
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Old 03-19-2013, 06:17 PM
 
Location: Living on the Coast in Oxnard CA
15,374 posts, read 25,673,367 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvoc View Post
Not really. Here in Las Vegas it was primarily driven by investors from CA using the equity in their homes. They made q bundle and went on to Phoenix and Texas to multiply their gain. Locals ended up with most of the problem. For most their sin was to buy at market at the wrong time.

There were of course those who got in over their heads and there were a number of local speculators who got their clocks cleaned when the music stopped.

But most of the damage was taken by those who were just in the wrong place at the wrong time.
My parents cashed out of California in 2003 and bought a new home in Surprise, Arizona. They had paid $13,000 for the old home back in 1965 and sold it for $338,000. The new home in Surprise cost them $132,000. Still, during the decade that they have been in Surprise they watched prices increase on their home from $132,000 to $290,000 and back down to under $100,000. They claim that they are back up to where they started in 2003. Who knows and they don't plan on selling the home anyway so values are a mute point.

We watched a lot of people do the same thing. Also watched one family sell their paid off home and buy a new larger home that created a new and larger mortgage and tax bill. They wished they had never sold.
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Old 03-19-2013, 09:22 PM
 
Location: Sunnyvale, CA
4,901 posts, read 8,936,613 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Majin View Post
I'm at a loss at understanding why the housing price increases over the past few months is being considered by many financial analysis a new housing bubble.
because financial analysts as a group are idiots
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Old 03-19-2013, 10:50 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles (Native)
24,343 posts, read 13,826,692 times
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Brought to you by the same analysts that didn't predict the 2008 crash?
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Old 03-20-2013, 12:06 AM
 
Location: Brawndo-Thirst-Mutilator-Nation
15,328 posts, read 15,320,018 times
Reputation: 11068
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willy702 View Post
Where has it doubled in the last year? In even the hottest markets you'd be hard pressed to find more than 40-50% appreciation in specific areas.


North San Diego County...........yes, prices are bubbling in that area. Riverside has seen 5-9% increases per month in many areas. Much of this is being driven by the same forces that blew up the last bubble...that only semi-deflated.
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