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A large number of blue collar workers not able to find work
An increasingly large fraction of the population need social welfare, e.g., unemployment benefits, affordable healthcare, social security, medicare, medicaid, and other social programs. A greater emphasis on social programs and welfare in American politics. People need food and shelter. There is going to be an incredibly large population that Washington can no longer ignore.
A large number of middle-level workers not able to find middle-level jobs, as these jobs are being offshored or replaced by automation. The competition and the decline of middle-level jobs will ensure stagnant wages for a generation. Some of them will simply do blue collar work. This is arguably the bulk of the former middle class.
A small fraction of the workforce, particularly in high-tech industries, will enjoy good to excellent income. Some will see income rise continuously. These jobs, however, require a lot of education, preparation, and constant upgrade of skills. They are undoubtedly marketable skills.
A small managerial class enjoys great wealth, world travel, and leisure.
Some manufacturing comes back to the U.S., while other jobs get offshored (more middle-level ones). Manufacturing uses much more automation, thus will never get back to the level it was at the peak of American manufacturing in the 20th century.
Immigration, both legal and undocumented, will continue regardless of any "reform." Businesses need immigrants.
An increase in high-skilled immigration in the high-tech industry. Employment in these industries will become highly competitive.
The rise of larger families in much of America, together will a diversity and strength of religions due to demographic shifts. Family values may become stronger.
Small protests here and there, but generally not effective.
Protests and movements don't always share common agendas. Conflicts among them hinder their success.
Some businesses continue to move to business-friendly states or overseas, while others struggle to influence politics in their favor, though perhaps increasingly difficult.
The national debt balloons, while an enormous amount of money needs to be spent on retirees.
Higher taxes, fees, and less benefits for those above poverty. But more benefits for those in poverty.
The gradual shift from global geopolitical power to domestic problems. American global superpower will eventually fade, along with its prosperity.
As a result, an re-orientation of geopolitics in the world. China, India, Brazil, Russia will gradually become the dominant powers in the world. American businesses make more and sell more in emerging economies. American universities recruit more from emerging economies. American real estate markets rely more on buyers from emerging economies.
A large number of blue collar workers not able to find work
Yeah? So what? They aren't entitled to a job, and there are no guarantees that jobs will or will not exist. If they can't find a job, then they need to dumb down their brains to be like Neanderthal....who was smart enough to go find something to do, instead of waiting around for a handout.
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Originally Posted by manbylake
An increasingly large fraction of the population need social welfare, e.g.,
No....they do not need it....what they need to do is adjust their Life-Style and Standard of Living. Government can help them do that by cutting them off.
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Originally Posted by manbylake
...unemployment benefits,...
Are actually unemployment insurance benefits.
An employer pays taxes to both the State and the "federal" government for unemployment insurance.
And stupid people love it.
Smart people would rather get government out of the business and pay their own employment insurance for better benefits.
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Originally Posted by manbylake
....affordable healthcare,...
You can have affordable healthcare just as soon as you end monopoly control by the American Hospital Association and have government stop interfering the Free Market.
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Originally Posted by manbylake
... social security,...
Is a badly run insurance program.
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Originally Posted by manbylake
... medicare,....
Is a very badly run insurance program.
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Originally Posted by manbylake
.... medicaid, and other social programs.
Are welfare.
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Originally Posted by manbylake
People need food and shelter.
Then they can share living accommodations with others similarly situated.
There's nothing wrong with a family of three and a family of four sharing a 3-bedroom apartment in order to reduce their expenditures so that they can afford food and shelter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by manbylake
A large number of middle-level workers not able to find middle-level jobs, as these jobs are being offshored or replaced by automation. The competition and the decline of middle-level jobs will ensure stagnant wages for a generation. Some of them will simply do blue collar work. This is arguably the bulk of the former middle class.
Yeah, so?
It's called Economics. There are Laws of Economics. Violate the Laws of Economics, and you will suffer.
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Originally Posted by manbylake
The national debt balloons, while an enormous amount of money needs to be spent on retirees.
That isn't true. The OASI Trust Fund is already part of your National Debt.
What will balloon your National Debt is Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare, HUD, Food Stamps and Student Loans...plus the interest you will need to pay on your National Debt until the day Mr Austerity comes to have lunch with you.
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Originally Posted by manbylake
Higher taxes, fees, and less benefits for those above poverty. But more benefits for those in poverty.
Poverty is subjective. You can define it anyway you want. You can define poverty so that "those in poverty" don't take things from everyone else.
Quote:
Originally Posted by manbylake
The gradual shift from global geopolitical power to domestic problems. American global superpower will eventually fade, along with its prosperity.
Nothing lasts forever. And everything lasts for shorter periods of time in the Modern Era.
You were never supposed to reach this level anyway.
You got here by chance, circumstance, and being Satanically Evil.
The Laws of Economics will correct that and put you back into your proper place. You can fight it if you want, but it's a poor use of energy, time and resources, since you have already lost.
Quote:
Originally Posted by manbylake
As a result, an re-orientation of geopolitics in the world. China, India, Brazil, Russia will gradually become the dominant powers in the world. American businesses make more and sell more in emerging economies. American universities recruit more from emerging economies. American real estate markets rely more on buyers from emerging economies.
That would be the long and short of it.
What goes around comes around and everything goes full-circle. The "center of the world" started in the Middle East and has shifted West over the millennium. It passed Western Europe to the Atlantic; the Americas; the Pacific Rim; and now it is shifting further West to Southwest Asia, then eventually Central Asia, then sub-Saharan Africa, at which time the Indian Ocean will be the center/focal point of the world.
Figure near the end of this Century.
You can't change the Past, or the Present, but there is still time to change the Future, but not if you're going to cling to the Past.
Economically....
Laws of economic are "written" by people for each specific age and culture given available resources and technologies to extract those. There are no universal laws, Economics 101 is largely BS since it's consistently omits hierarchical master-slave foundation of our economy, and that foundation is way more important than all the supplies and demands combined.
TS list presumes abundance of relatively cheap resources, food and energy and no major environmental changes. Introduce those and few items on the list would materialize.
Laws of economic are "written" by people for each specific age and culture given available resources and technologies to extract those. There are no universal laws, Economics 101 is largely BS since it's consistently omits hierarchical master-slave foundation of our economy, and that foundation is way more important than all the supplies and demands combined.
"Laws of Economics" = Throwback to Divine Right to Rule by those looking to justify excessive hoarding by the top 1%
"You are paid what you're worth" = Your worth based on whatever shareholders and CEOs deem whatever you're worth which is as little $$ as they can get away with while extracting maximum productivity.
"You're not entitled to anything" = Sorry you had the misfortune of being born in poverty and/or other unfortunate circumstances. Now fight, steal, cheat, prostitute, and claw your way out of it in order to justify your existence. If you fail, too bad so sad you lazy bum. Those lucky to have won the genetic lottery (progeny of the 1%), however, are entitled to their parents wealth by virtue of being the chosen ones according to the so-called laws of economics.
As for our economy.....within the next 100 years technological advances and automation will eventually render the whole concept of the masses having a "job" obsolete. We invent labor saving devices to what end? To create more meaningless make work to keep ourselves busy? Once the entire concept of labor by humans has been eliminated....what next?
How will we function during the transition from an economy based on scarcity of resources to an economy based on an abundance of resources?
Crash the Fed and implode the financial system and the whole picture changes. Debt slavery kills innovation and destroys the environment. Perhaps barter, underground economies and crypto currencies can help finally crash the Fed.
-- The United States becomes a net energy exporter (Already happening), thereby driving down energy costs.
-- The United States, as opposed to countries such as China, will actually see a increase in the working-age population of 50,000,000 by 2050, while China will see a sharp decline of around 200,000,000. This is not guesswork. This is demographic fact.
-- And this expansion of the working-age population also makes the U.S. in a better position than the EU, Russia, Japan and all of the BRICs except India. Because those countries are anywhere close to the replacement rate in terms of population, which means we'll be seeing population declines in the future. What's more, it means that a greater share of those countries' economic efforts will be required to support disproportionately elderly populations.
-- The United States becomes a net energy exporter (Already happening), thereby driving down energy costs.
-- The United States, as opposed to countries such as China, will actually see a increase in the working-age population of 50,000,000 by 2050, while China will see a sharp decline of around 200,000,000. This is not guesswork. This is demographic fact.
-- And this expansion of the working-age population also makes the U.S. in a better position than the EU, Russia, Japan and all of the BRICs except India. Because those countries are anywhere close to the replacement rate in terms of population, which means we'll be seeing population declines in the future. What's more, it means that a greater share of those countries' economic efforts will be required to support disproportionately elderly populations.
You are assessing only the positive side of the working-age population. Having more people doesn't mean getting wealthier or more jobs. The point is precisely that there won't be enough jobs. Thus the working-age population in the U.S. will have a relatively low quality of life. They can feed the retirees, but what can they do when they don't receive good pay at the first place?
Japan and Europe do face enormous problems due to a shrinking population. China, not so much. They have eased the one-child policy in response to their fiscal future. Now their population growth goes along with opportunity growth. The U.S. is growing its lower class and crappy jobs. China is growing its middle class. Two largely different pictures.
What may become a surprising "advantage" to the U.S. is that when labor cost declines to a tipping point in the U.S., it may begin to be in businesses' interests to place low-skill work in the U.S. That's when the U.S. has switched positions with today's developing world. Regardless, America's best days are behind it. The future will only be worse.
That's not true. Trends say things; numbers are important; math doesn't cheat.
Math and trend extrapolation say nothing about the future. There are too many variables, too many interactions, too many non-linear feedback loops, and too many stochastic processes that are not stationary.
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