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You are a buffoon. People in China who have money are voting with their passports. Here is how it works: the people with means send their children abroad usually from high school age, but increasingly middle school. Mom goes with to take care of them in a house they have paid for in cash. Dad stays back in China to keep making money. But the escape route is well-laid. Even among the top leadership, ALL their kids have studied abroad. Many of them have green cards, or the equivalent in that country. They also have transferred an enormous amount of wealth into offshore banks. The Cayman Isles are a favorite. In a recent poll of China's wealthy, 80% admitted they had taken concrete steps to immigrate, for themselves personally, or their kids. As to the lunchpail Larrys, 75% said they would leave if they could.
Yes, China has lifted a significant number of people out of poverty. But the price has come at the expense of China's environment, the peasants, and people without access to political patronage. Pessimism and cynicism are the order of the day in China, no more so than among the youth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Costaexpress
The thing is, china is building an educated middle class. Their people will gradually realize the importance of the environment and many other things. They will move toward the direction of improving these things. But make no mistake without their economic achievements they would not have been here at the first place. Their economic achievements are the very foundation of everything they have today.
We in the west take our prosperity for granted. We are hilariously entitled. When china does clean up their mess, though, it'll be their world indeed. They deserve every bit of it, every bit. The United States will just have to cope with that. Like singapore's lee Kwan yew said, if you can't prevent China's rise, then you have to deal with.
You are a buffoon. People in China who have money are voting with their passports. Here is how it works: the people with means send their children abroad usually from high school age, but increasingly middle school. Mom goes with to take care of them in a house they have paid for in cash. Dad stays back in China to keep making money. But the escape route is well-laid. Even among the top leadership, ALL their kids have studied abroad. Many of them have green cards, or the equivalent in that country. They also have transferred an enormous amount of wealth into offshore banks. The Cayman Isles are a favorite. In a recent poll of China's wealthy, 80% admitted they had taken concrete steps to immigrate, for themselves personally, or their kids. As to the lunchpail Larrys, 75% said they would leave if they could.
Yes, China has lifted a significant number of people out of poverty. But the price has come at the expense of China's environment, the peasants, and people without access to political patronage. Pessimism and cynicism are the order of the day in China, no more so than among the youth.
And what is so bad about Chinese immigrating to other countries? It enables china to spread their culture to gain power in many many locales and potentially make an impact on behalf of the Chinese community. This is especially true in democratic societies they immigrate to. They can gain more political power and facilitate building a relationship with China. That includes hiring people from china, admitting Chinese students, building businesses. With more immigrants come even more to form a strong community. They can serve on school boards, committees, councils, etc. It is all part of globalization. Our population itself will be global. The emigration of white people did not destroy Europe. It soreaded European cultures, languages, and lifestyles. Several centuries after, we still live the effects of that. What the Chinese are doing today is in a way populating their culture around the world. This is especially critical when tough times come and countries are hostile to china. The overseas Chinese population could play an important role in their local politics that would influence their country of residence. But the most important is still economic and cultural ties. These are what will generate ok opportunities for Chinese around the world.
China wants to become a super power. Their goal is not to become a beautiful Switzerland.
Let's be honest -- The USA is not going to be the world's indispensable nation for very much longer. These people work 365 days each year. We saw four homeless people while we were there. The entire nation is busy -- even the poorest among them are working cleanup -- sweeping sidewalks and similar.
Our mom visited China around the turn of the century -- most people rode bicycles. Now half of them have brand-spankin'-new Audis (or BMW, or Honda or Buick (Buick!?!?) or Jeep). Only cabbies and the police drive cars more than a few years old. The other half ride silent electric scooters.
Compared to the year 2000, I'd say that China is about halfway there to getting their act together. I fully expect them to be close to where we are now in 10 years. No less. Yes, there is mad pollution. But there was mad pollution in Taiwan (circa 1970), and in the US (circa 1890-1980) and the UK (circa 1880-1980). Taiwan cleaned its act up in a matter of years. Now it's essentially the Switzerland of Asia. The PRC will clean up their act, too. They're already recycling like mad. Every trash can has recycling/non-recycling sections. And they've put toilets every few hundred feet on every city street. (That's a big deal, compared to a decade ago.)
You'll know China truly has it's act together when Taiwan decides to rejoin. (My wife isn't happy with that statement, but I stand by it.)
Google this, because it's just as true as it is amazing: In the past three years, China has poured more concrete than America has in the last 100 years. China is an economic juggernaut. There is no stopping them. It's a very good thing they are a friendly, inquisitive people. As the populous continues to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, the PRC will continue to improve.
Let's be honest -- The USA is not going to be the world's indispensable nation for very much longer. These people work 365 days each year. We saw four homeless people while we were there. The entire nation is busy -- even the poorest among them are working cleanup -- sweeping sidewalks and similar.
Our mom visited China around the turn of the century -- most people rode bicycles. Now half of them have brand-spankin'-new Audis (or BMW, or Honda or Buick (Buick!?!?) or Jeep). Only cabbies and the police drive cars more than a few years old. The other half ride silent electric scooters.
Compared to the year 2000, I'd say that China is about halfway there to getting their act together. I fully expect them to be close to where we are now in 10 years. No less. Yes, there is mad pollution. But there was mad pollution in Taiwan (circa 1970), and in the US (circa 1890-1980) and the UK (circa 1880-1980). Taiwan cleaned its act up in a matter of years. Now it's essentially the Switzerland of Asia. The PRC will clean up their act, too. They're already recycling like mad. Every trash can has recycling/non-recycling sections. And they've put toilets every few hundred feet on every city street. (That's a big deal, compared to a decade ago.)
You'll know China truly has it's act together when Taiwan decides to rejoin. (My wife isn't happy with that statement, but I stand by it.)
Google this, because it's just as true as it is amazing: In the past three years, China has poured more concrete than America has in the last 100 years. China is an economic juggernaut. There is no stopping them. It's a very good thing they are a friendly, inquisitive people. As the populous continues to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, the PRC will continue to improve.
Great post. China's most serious problems are not environmental. It's their social and economic issues that they should watch out for. They have to absolutely prevent their economy from slowing down or getting worse. At a minimum a nation must have a robust economy. Democracy can wait. If China were democratic, they would have never achieved this much.
It will take 50 to 100 years to gradually clean up their environment. By then, they will also be a developed nation. If you talk to ordinary Chinese, most would tell you that they have a dream of a "big nation". They are already big in size, but their dream is big in influence, power, and wealth. This has been a dream long before the opium war. That war simply stimulated their beliefs. They are focused. They know what they want. They are determined to get it.
We can say all we want, typical sour grape stuff with a bit of jealousy here and there. But the truth is that the future belongs to china, not us.
That competition is not going to be just the Cold War type of national competition. You have a satellite, I have a shuttle...
The competition in the global economy is going to be personal. One American competing with one Chinese for a high paying job anywhere.
It will take 50 to 100 years to gradually clean up their environment. By then, they will also be a developed nation.
Taiwan was once just as polluted and nasty as the PRC. This was back when "Made in Taiwan" was a dismissal, not a compliment. Back then, they made ticky-tack and gimcrack. It took them less then 10 years to clean their acts up. I am told that air pollution has returned since I last visited the island (a few years ago). But when I was there, the rivers were clean, you could drink the water, and the environment looked to be in good shape. The industrial squalor of the mid-20th century simply was not evident.
The PRC is lax on pollution control because they are trying to grow their economy to the point where their 1.2 billion residents enjoy a standard of living akin to what the developed world enjoys. They are in the middle of their industrial revolution. Our industrial revolution wasn't particularly clean, either. Electric cars and cleaner power plants will surely come soon. People will eventually demand it. But right now, they're enjoying their brand new cars, and their air conditioning -- which has been retrofitted to just about every building in every Chinese city. Having just visited China in June and July, I would also demand air conditioning if I lived there. Half of the country is a sauna in the summer.
One point: the PRC simply doesn't have 50-to-100 years to clean up. Nobody does. The sea level clock is ticking, and will wait for no nation.
PS -- One thing that surprised me: You can post to City-Data from China. Wasn't expecting that.
Taiwan was once just as polluted and nasty as the PRC. This was back when "Made in Taiwan" was a dismissal, not a compliment. Back then, they made ticky-tack and gimcrack. It took them less then 10 years to clean their acts up. I am told that air pollution has returned since I last visited the island (a few years ago). But when I was there, the rivers were clean, you could drink the water, and the environment looked to be in good shape. The industrial squalor of the mid-20th century simply was not evident.
The PRC is lax on pollution control because they are trying to grow their economy to the point where their 1.2 billion residents enjoy a standard of living akin to what the developed world enjoys. They are in the middle of their industrial revolution. Our industrial revolution wasn't particularly clean, either. Electric cars and cleaner power plants will surely come soon. People will eventually demand it. But right now, they're enjoying their brand new cars, and their air conditioning -- which has been retrofitted to just about every building in every Chinese city. Having just visited China in June and July, I would also demand air conditioning if I lived there. Half of the country is a sauna in the summer.
One point: the PRC simply doesn't have 50-to-100 years to clean up. Nobody does. The sea level clock is ticking, and will wait for no nation.
PS -- One thing that surprised me: You can post to City-Data from China. Wasn't expecting that.
I don't think it'll be easy for Taiwan to want to join China. They both enjoy a relaxed relationship for now. But the people of Taiwan enjoy a different system. It's hard to imagine them not to. China mainland can get Taiwan into its economic sphere, but that is not enough for what they call reunification. Taiwan is still largely wealthier than mainland china. It also maintains close ties with other countries, many of which are also wealthier than china. China will also have a hard time pushing American power out of Asia, if it ever could. For china to do that, they would have to become much more powerful and wealthier than they are today and America would have to shrink its power and influence significantly. Neither is likely.
China may never get to a first world standard of life the way it is defined in the west today. America will gradually lose its edge and decline relatively. But I'm not sure if china will "surpass" the USA in terms of GDP per capita and the average standard of life. You mentioned that they will get where we are in 10'years. In some aspects maybe. Overall I think it'll take a very long time for china to accomplish surpassing the USA on a very detailed level, unless the USA does some really stupid things.
I'm not saying it's going to be easy. China first has to get it's standard of living up to Taiwanese standards. But let's look at their progress -- they were a nation of bicyclists 15 years ago. Now half of them have new Audis and the other half have electric scooters. That's progress. The only people who still bicycle in China are doing so because they want to.
Fifteen years ago, China was economically closer to East Germany than Taiwan. Now it's much closer to Taiwan than it is to East Germany. If they keep it up, they will become the sort of country that Taiwan WANTS to join with in a matter of years, not decades. Naturally, that's a big "if."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Costaexpress
Overall I think it'll take a very long time for china to accomplish surpassing the USA on a very detailed level, unless the USA does some really stupid things.
The USA is currently doing some really stupid things -- like putting unnecessary wars on the national credit card and borrowing from the Chinese to do it.
I'm not saying it's going to be easy. China first has to get it's standard of living up to Taiwanese standards. But let's look at their progress -- they were a nation of bicyclists 15 years ago. Now half of them have new Audis and the other half have electric scooters. That's progress. The only people who still bicycle in China are doing so because they want to.
Fifteen years ago, China was economically closer to East Germany than Taiwan. Now it's much closer to Taiwan than it is to East Germany. If they keep it up, they will become the sort of country that Taiwan WANTS to join with in a matter of years, not decades. Naturally, that's a big "if."
The USA is currently doing some really stupid things -- like putting unnecessary wars on the national credit card and borrowing from the Chinese to do it.
The standard of life in all of china will take a while to rise. China still has many poor areas. It's only the big eastern cities that have what you described the nice look. Starbucks by riverside. Fine dining in trendy areas. Nightlife and parklands. Even if mainland's sol is on par with that of Taiwan, people in Taiwan would still prefer their system. Taiwan would have to be in some sort of a desperate state to want to join anyone.
You're way over-exaggerating. Half of Chinese do not own cars. And they were not a nation of bicycle riders in 2000. 1990, maybe. Lots of people ride bicycles because that is all they can afford. There are still lots of poor people there even in the cities.
And no matter how much China improves its economy, it will not be a nation that the Taiwanese 'want' to join. If they had their way, they would be their own country. They may decide to reunite at some point, but it will be because they believe they have no other choice.
You guys are way too bullish on China, a country that faces massive problems, economic growth notwithstanding. First and foremost is absolutely because the country is an ecological basket case. That is the number one concern of Chinese citizens, ranking even higher than the endemic corruption.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScoopLV
I'm not saying it's going to be easy. China first has to get it's standard of living up to Taiwanese standards. But let's look at their progress -- they were a nation of bicyclists 15 years ago. Now half of them have new Audis and the other half have electric scooters. That's progress. The only people who still bicycle in China are doing so because they want to.
Fifteen years ago, China was economically closer to East Germany than Taiwan. Now it's much closer to Taiwan than it is to East Germany. If they keep it up, they will become the sort of country that Taiwan WANTS to join with in a matter of years, not decades. Naturally, that's a big "if."
The USA is currently doing some really stupid things -- like putting unnecessary wars on the national credit card and borrowing from the Chinese to do it.
You're way over-exaggerating. Half of Chinese do not own cars. And they were not a nation of bicycle riders in 2000. 1990, maybe. Lots of people ride bicycles because that is all they can afford. There are still lots of poor people there even in the cities.
And no matter how much China improves its economy, it will not be a nation that the Taiwanese 'want' to join. If they had their way, they would be their own country. They may decide to reunite at some point, but it will be because they believe they have no other choice.
You guys are way too bullish on China, a country that faces massive problems, economic growth notwithstanding. First and foremost is absolutely because the country is an ecological basket case. That is the number one concern of Chinese citizens, ranking even higher than the endemic corruption.
I agree that Taiwan won't be interested.
I disagree that the environment is the top one concern of Chinese citizens. The most important is still the economy. China's GDP per capita is still very low. They need to at least double their current GDP per capita. That's a lot of projects right there. They need to focus on getting wealthier and building competitive industries. They need to have a globally competitive workforce for a limited number of opportunities.
Whether to attract Taiwan or not, becoming wealthier and more powerful will only benefit china. They need that in the future, especially if tough times come. What they don't need is so called "democracy" that will throw them into a detour they may never come out of.
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