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Old 01-16-2015, 08:56 AM
 
Location: Central Atlantic Region, though consults worldwide
266 posts, read 286,423 times
Reputation: 95

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wartrace View Post
I don't know where the earnings growth will come from.
I hear ya Wartrace.

However, I think the stage seems set favoring foriegn money flooding US markets. If so, PEs will go through the roof. Almost makes me think mid-long term distant, middle ground, in the money options may be a reasonable place to be. I'll first wait to see what happens the end of January, should be interesting.

Great post comments everyone!
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Old 01-16-2015, 09:08 AM
 
64,818 posts, read 66,299,886 times
Reputation: 43193
baby boomers stand to inherit a trillion dollars , foreign money , and the fact we are the best house in the worst neighborhood will attract money from all over the world.

the negatives are low rates are tied to dividend rates and dividend rates traditionally account for 1/3 the markets gains so9 that points to about 6% returns non inflation adjusted. .

so my guess is we are looking at growth but likely sub average growth for 5 to 10 years out perhaps.
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Old 01-16-2015, 09:10 AM
Status: "On to Sugar Land. Back soon." (set 1 day ago)
 
Location: Suburban Dallas
44,358 posts, read 35,431,180 times
Reputation: 27298
Default Dow To Hit 31,000 In 3 Years?

No, it won't.
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Old 01-17-2015, 04:30 PM
 
Location: San Diego California
6,797 posts, read 6,126,009 times
Reputation: 5171
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
jimhcom doesn't post negativity, he is only trying to help us! Stop puzzling him!

Besides we get to revisit his DJIA "prediction" in 3 years. So, that could be fun.
Once a shill, always a shill.
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Old 01-19-2015, 04:09 PM
 
Location: Central Atlantic Region, though consults worldwide
266 posts, read 286,423 times
Reputation: 95
Near term 18,000 will either be the top of the Dow or damn close.

A relief rally in oil is overdue though I think unsustainable. I expect crude to bottom between $40 and $50 a barrel, touching in the 30s likely.

ISIS gaining ground with mistreated poorer Saudis'. So much for the royalty...

NY Time said the $710T derivatives (~15% oil) just keeps coming back - more the heart of the matter than banks wish to admit. Months ago, oil companies transferred serious risk to the banks . All in all, looks to be another 2007/08 in the works.

Could global matters worsen with 1.43 Euro hitting 1.17 seemingly to plunge more? Despite being about time, odds are, Yep!

Here we go again with another over-leveraged situation toddling about as a drunken sailor walking the anchorline. Batten down the hatches! Another QE framework to dig from this new mess further devalue the buck.

Foreign money and a major correction might look pretty good.
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Old 01-19-2015, 11:35 PM
 
4,174 posts, read 2,788,828 times
Reputation: 2629
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Once a shill, always a shill.
I'm nothing if not consistent. So, I've got that going for me!
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Old 01-20-2015, 05:50 AM
 
4,174 posts, read 2,788,828 times
Reputation: 2629
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
baby boomers stand to inherit a trillion dollars , foreign money , and the fact we are the best house in the worst neighborhood will attract money from all over the world.

the negatives are low rates are tied to dividend rates and dividend rates traditionally account for 1/3 the markets gains so9 that points to about 6% returns non inflation adjusted. .

so my guess is we are looking at growth but likely sub average growth for 5 to 10 years out perhaps.
I agree with this. Historically low growth and returns, but perhaps for an extended period. Which may not be a bad thing, as I am a bit tired of bubbles bursting!
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Old 07-08-2018, 10:07 AM
 
4,784 posts, read 2,279,911 times
Reputation: 8877
Today's blast from the past comes from 3.5 years ago when the stock market was 45% lower, and a common argument of the doomsdayers was that once QE stopped or interest rates were raised the stock market would crash. Interest rates have been raised 6 times since then, and of course QE ended years ago.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Had this market cycle been built on organic growth based on sound economic fundamentals instead of the pump and dump policies of the Fed we would be looking at an entirely different situation. All you need to do is to look at a chart of the market since QE ended to see how it's momentum is completely stalled.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Fundamentally, markets require a constant supply of new buyers to go up. That supply of new buyers was being artificially manufactured by 85 billion per month in printing by the Fed which was a fraud from the beginning and is now discontinued. Now the market must exist on it's own fundamentals which are very problematic. The commodities markets are reflecting exactly where the economy really is. Ignore what they are telling you at your own peril.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Now that the drug the economy has been addicted to has been withdrawn, you are seeing the markets reeling with volatility and unable to maintain any sort of positive momentum. This will only get worse as the bond market begins to reel from the defaults in the oil sector as smaller companies cannot cope with prices below break even.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimhcom View Post
Like I said before, if you believe the future is rosy, then put your money where your mouth is and stay fully invested. Just don't complain when you get your backside handed to you because you were warned.
If I remember correctly this poster had a long history of predicting economic collapse claiming he'd just gotten out of the market, yet never posts about getting back in. The amazing ability to always be in stocks profiting despite being wrong about the stock market for almost a decade straight.
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Old 07-08-2018, 10:14 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
15,690 posts, read 18,253,080 times
Reputation: 11219
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
I think mid-20,000s by 2018 is more realistic.
Looks like my expectation was more accurate than the thread title. The DOW has been hovering around 25,000 for much of this year.

Sometimes, you get lucky.
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Old 07-08-2018, 10:38 AM
 
4,784 posts, read 2,279,911 times
Reputation: 8877
Well played BCD!
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