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Old 02-23-2015, 11:35 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
The processing power of a PC is currently at about the level of an insect. That's why there are many tasks that humans can perform much better. It is predicted to be at human level at ~2050.
No, the speed of Intel chips has levelled off since 2003:

The Free Lunch Is Over: A Fundamental Turn Toward Concurrency in Software

Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
In the past we had lots of viable jobs for guys with a 80 IQ and poor personal skills. They could use their dexterity and muscle power. That's changing right now. Our economy is already at the point where many in this demographic are unemployable at a decent wage.
Only because your notion of "decent wage" is inflated to a very wasteful living standard where every adult has their own car and singles think they need 2-bedroom apartments...

Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
There are jobs that require more skill and education, but a lot of people simply can't compete in that demographic. And as time goes on it will get more and more competitive.
People have been saying this for over 100 years...
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Old 02-23-2015, 11:40 AM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
Also, by the time robots can do *everything* humans can, they will have rights, work ethic, and morality. I expect robots to support non-working humans in the same way parents support non-working children, assuming "Friendly" AI.
We will face this crisis well before robots are that sophisticated. You are also assuming that robots will someday be self-aware and conscious. I doubt that will ever be the case. Rather they will be extremely intelligent machines that *can* behave like humans (though that would be a fringe sideline) and actually far exceed human capabilities, but they will not be conscious and will not have rights. They will be property.

For the reasons I mentioned in the original post, I also think it's likely that "human rights" will cease to exist for humans as well.
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Old 02-23-2015, 11:46 AM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
Only because your notion of "decent wage" is inflated to a very wasteful living standard where every adult has their own car and singles think they need 2-bedroom apartments...
Sure. Before long we may be able to "live" in a virtual reality pod, and experience life that way. Could be a lot more fun and interesting. Cost of living should be quite low for something like that. No car, no apartment, minimal space, never go anywhere, minimal food, etc. Sound good?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
No, the speed of Intel chips has levelled off since 2003:
Doesn't matter. Parallel processing will work just fine, and the transistor count keeps rising.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
People have been saying this for over 100 years...
People say all sorts of things. It really is different now because computers and machines have never been able to make people technically unemployable.

Last edited by rruff; 02-23-2015 at 11:54 AM..
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Old 02-23-2015, 12:39 PM
 
Location: Someplace Wonderful
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Off hand,

jobs that cannot be roboticized: plumber, electrician, handyman, taxi driver, most kinds of repair work.

jobs that will lead to reduced human participation: order taker, food server, house painter, lawn mower

jobs that will enhance human productivity even more: architect, stockbroker, politician, schoolteacher

There are probably many more that you folks can come up with ...
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Old 02-23-2015, 12:47 PM
 
Location: Sugarmill Woods , FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckmann View Post
Off hand,

jobs that cannot be roboticized: plumber, electrician, handyman, taxi driver, most kinds of repair work.

jobs that will lead to reduced human participation: order taker, food server, house painter, lawn mower

jobs that will enhance human productivity even more: architect, stockbroker, politician, schoolteacher

There are probably many more that you folks can come up with ...
Given time ALL except politicians (because robots could not be so inept) could be replaced by synthetic means.
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Old 02-23-2015, 12:48 PM
 
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taxi driver, look at google's car Even nurses are being "automated" with flow charts detailing what to do if X lab result is high/low. There are robotic phlebotomists. Automated carriers. And surgeries can be done via internet and a robot now.

Stock brokers, most of wall street is traded based off of algorithms that computers run.

How does a politician enhance productivity?

What robotics can't do is imagine new ways of using it and creating a new industry. We have drones made for war to drones making movies. Creativity isn't automated. The manufacturing robots are eliminating factory jobs sure, but people are using the same things and using them to create products that would have been too costly before and becoming entrepreneurs. If technology hadn't gotten to the point where the internet was so ubiquitous, facebook wouldn't be around, nor all the social media jobs.
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Old 02-23-2015, 01:20 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eyeb View Post
Creativity isn't automated.
Not well currently, but it will be. Computers will be give the basic algorithms and then turned loose with a goal and the parameters, and via trial and error they will find the solution. They will be far better at it than humans because they will be able to precisely and quickly access and weigh all recorded knowledge. Once a solution is obtained, that could be used as a starting point for new problems in order to save time. Whatever is learned can be perfectly transferred to other systems.

If you are thinking of more esoteric things like art and music, that will be automated also. You turn a computer loose with the goal of creating music or art "that people like". Same result.
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Old 02-23-2015, 01:25 PM
 
9,098 posts, read 3,711,228 times
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Quote:
Computers will be give the basic algorithms and then turned loose with a goal and the parameters, and via trial and error they will find the solution.
how does a computer "trial and error" the sticky part of rubber into sticky notes? Or penicillin?
15 Life-Changing Inventions That Were Created By Mistake - Business Insider

People tend to "create" needs that a computer won't if it is trying to be efficient
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Old 02-23-2015, 01:43 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
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How did people do it? Why wouldn't a very smart machine be able to make the same accidental discoveries? I think they will be much better at it actually.

It's probably also important to realize that the focus will no longer be "things to sell to the masses" because consumer capitalism will be defunct. The inventions will serve the needs and desires of the owners directly. There may very well be a need to keep very clever and highly connected and enhanced humans in the creative loop, but that will not be a lot of people. Nothing like the current population that is earning a living in those fields.
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Old 02-23-2015, 01:53 PM
 
12,404 posts, read 9,206,608 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
We will face this crisis well before robots are that sophisticated. You are also assuming that robots will someday be self-aware and conscious. I doubt that will ever be the case. Rather they will be extremely intelligent machines that *can* behave like humans (though that would be a fringe sideline) and actually far exceed human capabilities, but they will not be conscious and will not have rights.
So you are arguing that the robots will be "philosophical zombies" with all the behavioral manifestations of sentience but no subjective experience. There are a multitude of difficulties with this - chiefly epistemological.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
They will be property.

For the reasons I mentioned in the original post, I also think it's likely that "human rights" will cease to exist for humans as well.
In other words, you don't think we will have "Friendly AI". I hope you are wrong but who knows?
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