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Old 03-14-2015, 05:30 AM
 
4,174 posts, read 2,834,114 times
Reputation: 2629

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
What a joke....

Mircea

Ah yes, jokes!

I remember the diatribe you went on a couple years ago about how the sequester, rising oil prices and FICA going back to 6% would tank the recovery and drive unemployment back up. I believe we were at 7.6% then. Right after boasting you had been "predicting our economy for years".

I am sure you have a great explanation for that though. In retrospect.

I'm no elephant, but I have a long memory.

Did not quite work out that way. Now did it, Groucho?

Your credibility is zero, while your hubris remains at 100%
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Old 03-14-2015, 06:19 AM
 
66,653 posts, read 67,763,205 times
Reputation: 44661
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Because oil prices rose.



I think they meant to say "....many stupid people feared..."




A really bad explanation that is wrong.

Is the Zimbabwean Dollar an international reserve currency? An international currency of trade?

In what way is the Zimbabwean monetary system even remotely similar to the US system?

It isn't.

We have a fallacy called False Analogy.

In what way was the Wiemar Republic like the US?

The US lost colonies?

The idiot moron author is too stupid to be aware that Germany had colonies in (West) Africa and in Asia. The French and Brits divvied up Germany's colonies in Africa, while the US and Brits divvied up Germany's colonies in Asia.....that's how the US expanded its colonial holdings in China.



Gee, the Brits, French and US cutting off the Mark and forcing their new colonies to use Francs, Pounds and Dollars kinda created a surplus of Marks, ya think?



The repatriation of Marks back to Germany is what exasperated an already problematic situation with Wage Inflation and Demand-pull Inflation.



No, it wasn't, but nice Straw Man.



Because people like you keep misleading them with false information.



Right....global energy prices led to Wage Inflation during WW II causing FDR to levy a Wage & Price Freeze.

Global energy prices led to Wage Inflation during the Nixon Administration causing Nixon to levy a Wage & Price Freeze.

Is that what you're claiming?

What a joke....

Mircea
this time it has more to do with the way our banking system works than any of this oil stuff. the banking system creates money out of loans and deposits. when credit markets froze the air was knocked out of the sail. the banking system was imploading on itself.

all that money did was reinflate what had been existing. it is just basic banking system structure .

none of that money made it into our hands where it could be spent. wage deflation and job loss were the issues at hand.

a deleveraging world , recessions and deflationary pressures around the world will keep a further lid on things.

Last edited by mathjak107; 03-14-2015 at 06:33 AM..
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Old 03-14-2015, 07:34 AM
 
4,174 posts, read 2,834,114 times
Reputation: 2629
Mathjak! Back away slowly. I'll cover for ya.
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Old 03-14-2015, 08:37 AM
 
66,653 posts, read 67,763,205 times
Reputation: 44661
ha ha ha ha.. well it is true . our banging system isa basically a ponnzi scheme and we creat money through loands and deposits and assets for loans get counted 2x less reserves .

anything that bucks the flow in and out of money can cause it to collapse. we had billions if not trillions in virtual money vanish when things froze. it just got replaced with the qe mnoney.
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Old 03-14-2015, 01:26 PM
 
3,792 posts, read 1,810,237 times
Reputation: 766
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post

No, it wasn't, but nice Straw Man.
All debt is money. So the destruction of debt by defaulting on mortgages was deflationary. The destruction of the value of the underlying assets value by reducing the amount of loaning against it was also deflationary. We were in a deflationary economy back then.
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Old 03-14-2015, 09:31 PM
 
Location: Ohio
18,409 posts, read 13,525,905 times
Reputation: 14352
Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
Not sure what you mean. In spite of their dearth of resources Japan has had a very high trade surplus until recently. Cheap foreign labor is not an issue for them, and frankly there is no reason why it needs to be in the US either.
Yes, there is.....it's called "publicly traded corporation."

Look into it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
Ah yes, jokes!

I remember the diatribe you went on a couple years ago about how the sequester,...
Fail. I never said squat about the sequester.

I was for the sequester, as in the sequester will grow your economy, as will cutting government spending.

You obviously have me confused with a Keynesian.


Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
....rising oil prices...
Another fail.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
... and FICA going back to 6% would tank the recovery and drive unemployment back up. I believe we were at 7.6% then. Right after boasting you had been "predicting our economy for years".

I am sure you have a great explanation for that though. In retrospect.
That was also in light of the PPACA.

As you have already forgotten:

09-23-2013, 11:06 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Last May, I had said that you were on track for a recession 2nd Quarter 2014, but that was several months before Obama panicked and started delaying implementation of key parts of Obamacare.

Doesn't matter....at best that will delay the recession until 3rd or 4th Quarter 2014.
You did have a recession.


The July 2013 change in the way GDP is calculated results in an increase of GDP by 2% to 4% to possibly as much as 5%, depending on how the intangibles are calculated.

For the record, the lowest "bump" was 1.57% 1Q 2010 and the largest 3.89% 4Q 1970

In plain English, when your government reports a GDP of 1%, that means....

1.00%
1.57% -
--------
-0.57%

1.00%
3.89% -
-------
-2.89%

....GDP actually fell in the range of -2.89% to -0.57%

Again, it all depends on how intangibles are calculated.



For the not-too-bright, that means if your government reports GDP growth of 2%, then...

2.00%
1.57%-
------
+0.43%

2.00%
3.89%-
-------
-1.89%

...your GDP growth is in this range: -1.89% to +0.43%

Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
I'm no elephant, but I have a long memory.
A bad long memory is worthless....

08-17-2011, 09:54 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion, but it's a fair cop. Your economy is recessionary through the end of the decade, then inflationary and then after that, you'll enter a deflationary period. That would be roughly around 2040 or so as you're hoping. The deflationary period will end about 15 years later and the economy will be stable for a very, very long time, but markedly depressed from his former glory.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon View Post
All debt is money.
Great, another debt nutter.

Prognosticating...

Mircea
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Old 03-14-2015, 09:52 PM
 
33,046 posts, read 21,124,786 times
Reputation: 8939
My guess is that aggregate demand is insufficient to promote hyperinflation, as the boomers are on the downslope of their lifetime spending curve and millennials are hampered by low wages and student loan debt, and therefore not spending adequately.
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Old 03-15-2015, 07:25 AM
 
4,174 posts, read 2,834,114 times
Reputation: 2629
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post

Fail. I never said squat about the sequester.

I was for the sequester, as in the sequester will grow your economy, as will cutting government spending.
Hmmm? Never, eh? From April 2013:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
...

The effects of the 2% FICA tax restoration are just now beginning to manifest themselves. The effects of the sequester will not impact for another 60-90 days. Since it started in March, you shouldn't see anything until probably mid-July...

Mircea
I guess you were saying that the cut in government spending, plus a 2% tax increase was going to improve the economy? Go ahead, spin away! There is so much BS in your posts. I am sure you can baffle us all with it.

We had a recession 2nd quarter 2014? Notify the economists! No matter how you cook the books to salvage ego or credibility, one quarter would still not a recession make.

Then there was this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
...

Back in 2007 I told everyone here on C-D you'd have a recession and permanently lose Millions and Millions of jobs, and those people would never work again....with "never" meaning "at no time ever."
...
Mircea
With unemployment at 5.5% and falling, and shortages of skilled labor, plus a shrinking workforce (due to a demographic shift), it would seem that anyone who wants to work will be afforded the opportunity. If not now, in the not so distant future.

Then there was this bold and incorrect "prediction".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Look, there is no relationship between jobs and economic performance.

It is absurd to suggest that a recovering economy is "supposed to bring people back into the job market."

I would argue that people are moving into the job market, except those people don't live in the US...

Mircea
Apparently, a growing economy does not produce jobs, and a high employment rate does not help fuel economic recovery via spending! Well, back to the books. You should write your own, it is certain to be a comedy classic.


What I find even more interesting is your complete inability to engage in debate or communicate information without verbally assaulting people and claiming superiority.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
...
I think they meant to say "....many stupid people feared..."
...
The idiot moron author is too stupid to be aware ...

What a joke....

Great, another debt nutter.

Prognosticating...

Mircea
"People who are diagnosed with a narcissistic personality disorder are characterized by exaggerated feelings of self-importance. They have a sense of entitlement and demonstrate grandiosity in their beliefs and behavior. They have a strong need for admiration, but lack feelings of empathy."

It is probably just borderline though.

Last edited by shaker281; 03-15-2015 at 07:40 AM..
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Old 03-16-2015, 10:43 AM
 
3,792 posts, read 1,810,237 times
Reputation: 766
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post




Great, another debt nutter.

Prognosticating...

Mircea
If it will make you feel better yes I am a debt nutter.

Austrian business cycle theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

But I'm not the only one.
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Old 03-16-2015, 08:07 PM
 
Location: Ohio
18,409 posts, read 13,525,905 times
Reputation: 14352
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon View Post
If it will make you feel better yes I am a debt nutter.

But I'm not the only one.
Ah, yes, the Austrians. You'll never wash their stink off of you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
Hmmm? Never, eh? From April 2013:

I guess you were saying that the cut in government spending, plus a 2% tax increase was going to improve the economy? Go ahead, spin away! There is so much BS in your posts. I am sure you can baffle us all with it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eRayP View Post
The data show the cuts had almost no impact on the job market.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
A claim like that is impossible to make.

It's an economy, not a train; it doesn't run on a schedule.

The effects of the 2% FICA tax restoration are just now beginning to manifest themselves. The effects of the sequester will not impact for another 60-90 days. Since it started in March, you shouldn't see anything until probably mid-July.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eRayP View Post
Although there will be some impact it will be minimal. The report is showing evidence that we’re feeling the effects of the recent payroll tax increases, as the retail sector shed 24,000 jobs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
You lost part time jobs in March, which is a little unusual (although you also lost part-time jobs March 2012). A drop in sales normally only results in a decline in hours scheduled for employees, not the retail slaughter of employees...uh, retail firing of employees....wholesale firing of employees.

What you may actually be seeing is the effects of Obamacrap®.

You're in the safe harbor period for determining the number of employees. It's a given that many employers are juggling their schedules and dumping part-timers to avoid the horrors of Obamacrap®.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eRayP View Post
The sector of the economy most impacted by government contracts, increased hiring by 51k last month, in line with previous growth. A pullback in government spending would likely have seen this sector shed jobs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Not necessarily. Remember the government operates on contracts. I have a contract from 3 years ago that I am still fulfilling, so I may need to hire for that ----or having completed that phase of the contract, it's time to lay off --- in other words hiring/firing in sectors that are government dependent doesn't exactly reflect the current budget or budget cuts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eRayP View Post
A liberal advocacy group found that a majority of jobs lost during the recent recession were in the middle range of wages, while a majority of those added during the recovery had been low-paying jobs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Yes, that would be consistent with the systemic problems.

Disputing...

Mircea

Wow...you worked really hard to take my comments out of context.


I was actually disputing the effects of the sequester on the job market, and any effects that would happen would occur several months from then.

And I said nothing about the sky falling.


Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
We had a recession 2nd quarter 2014? Notify the economists! No matter how you cook the books to salvage ego or credibility, one quarter would still not a recession make.
As most poor debaters often do, you dodged the issue.

Your government is the one who cooked the books, not me.

Your government is the one who changed the way the GDP was calculated in July 2013
, not me.

Your government is the one who decided that ideas -- Intellectual Property -- have value and should be included in the GDP
, even though ideas are abstract, not concrete, and cannot actually be objectively measured (until perhaps long after the fact).

Quote:
The July 2013 change in the way GDP is calculated results in an increase of GDP by 2% to 4% to possibly as much as 5%, depending on how the intangibles are calculated.

For the record, the lowest "bump" was 1.57% 1Q 2010 and the largest 3.89% 4Q 1970

In plain English, when your government reports a GDP of 1%, that means....

1.00%
1.57% -
--------
-0.57%

1.00%
3.89% -
-------
-2.89%

....GDP actually fell in the range of -2.89% to -0.57%

Again, it all depends on how intangibles are calculated.



For the not-too-bright, that means if your government reports GDP growth of 2%, then...

2.00%
1.57%-
------
+0.43%

2.00%
3.89%-
-------
-1.89%

...your GDP growth is in this range: -1.89% to +0.43%

Are you going to address that or sluff it off again?


What's the problem?

Can't you find the data for how the GDP has originally calculated prior to July 2013?

Poor baby.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
Then there was this:

With unemployment at 5.5% and falling, and shortages of skilled labor, plus a shrinking workforce (due to a demographic shift), it would seem that anyone who wants to work will be afforded the opportunity. If not now, in the not so distant future.

Then there was this bold and incorrect "prediction".
And I stand by those for the reasons given.

Is it 2020 yet?

You can tell time, can't you?....

Mircea
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