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Old 03-16-2015, 08:45 PM
 
3,792 posts, read 1,810,849 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Ah, yes, the Austrians. You'll never wash their stink off of you.
I don't particularly care for their brand of economics, but they have the occasional point.
Peak Debt—-Why The Keynesian Money Printers Are Done | David Stockman's Contra Corner
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Old 03-17-2015, 05:21 AM
 
4,174 posts, read 2,834,631 times
Reputation: 2629
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Ah, yes, the Austrians. You'll never wash their stink off of you.


Wow...you worked really hard to take my comments out of context.


I was actually disputing the effects of the sequester on the job market, and any effects that would happen would occur several months from then.

And I said nothing about the sky falling.


As most poor debaters often do, you dodged the issue.

Your government is the one who cooked the books, not me.

Your government is the one who changed the way the GDP was calculated in July 2013
, not me.

Your government is the one who decided that ideas -- Intellectual Property -- have value and should be included in the GDP
, even though ideas are abstract, not concrete, and cannot actually be objectively measured (until perhaps long after the fact).


Are you going to address that or sluff it off again?


What's the problem?

Can't you find the data for how the GDP has originally calculated prior to July 2013?

Poor baby.



And I stand by those for the reasons given.

Is it 2020 yet?

You can tell time, can't you?....

Mircea
And yet, "the sequester" had no meaningful impact on jobs, nor did the 2% hike in FICA prove particularly meaningful, whatever the context you now claim.

Your entire approach to "debate" is to spout vitriol and attempt to bury people in stats. Even though those stats are subject to interpretation. You present your interpretation as unassailable fact. "Dodge the issue"? Hardly. Get drawn into an argument of your framing - no.

Problem with your "predictions" is that the biggest part of economics is people. People who do not always do what is "predicted". And unexpected events that change the economic landscape. Which is why economists have been arguing, since the beginning of commerce, over approaches and interpretations of data. No one, especially you, has ever consistently predicted anything correctly. That is why the claim that you can do it is ridiculous at best, and arrogant at worst.

I know you would like to take all that data spinning in your head and try and bury people with it, but since it is all a matter of interpretation, it would be an exercise in futility. On both our parts.

IIRC, you have issues with Uncle Sam that date back to your time in the military. You moved out of the US as well, correct? The common theme of your posts, appears to be that the US is sinking and will "pay the price". Perhaps, for not listening to your sage advice? Not just a little self-serving, huh?

I'm believe you live in Europe now, where the choices and decisions of your governments, have led to much worse economic conditions than the USA. I remember you going on about how the educational system is so much better there. Yet, look where it has gotten them. The economy is in turmoil. Finally, they are attempting to follow in the footsteps of the US FED.

Why and how the calculations of GDP were altered in 2013, and the significance of that, will remain to be seen. One quarter still does not a recession make. And that does not change the fact that virtually all economic indicators have been improving for the past 6 years. despite you claims to the contrary. Like plenty of people who need the US to fail to suit their agenda, it is always the distant future when you will be proven prescient!

All the name calling in your sad, immature arsenal will not change that! Most striking is that you are completely unaware that if you have anything to add to a dialogue, your approach so alienates anyone that your message is lost in the noise!

Last edited by shaker281; 03-17-2015 at 05:42 AM..
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Old 01-01-2019, 05:25 PM
 
Location: New York Area
13,861 posts, read 5,474,577 times
Reputation: 11062
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
Why QE did not trigger hyperinflation (2014, transaction, borrowing, buy)
I have had a variety of discussions with some of my friends quite well-versed in economics. Many of us on CD grew up in an era where the Great Inflation of 1968-80 was their first memory. I was born in 1957 and it certainly was mine. Strikes were rampant. I got my drivers license on or about November 10, 1973, the day that Nixon asked for a "voluntary" 50 mph speed and around when gasoline suddenly became hard to find, and started to rise sharply in price. It was a scary era.

Since Volcker and Reagan broke the back of inflation, almost anything that has happened has not generated a general rise in prices. One friend believes, in hindsight, that the Great Inflation was a fluke that result from leftover pent-up demand from WW-II, and the "guns and butter" policies of the Vietnam era. I believe that the leftover effects of Nixon's wage and price controls had a pernicious role.

I also wonder, and am throwing this out there, that measured money supply is increasing rapidly, but that technology has changed the relevant measures in ways we don't entirely understand. Thoughts?
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Old 01-01-2019, 07:38 PM
 
8,479 posts, read 3,607,393 times
Reputation: 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
I have had a variety of discussions with some of my friends quite well-versed in economics. Many of us on CD grew up in an era where the Great Inflation of 1968-80 was their first memory. I was born in 1957 and it certainly was mine. Strikes were rampant. I got my drivers license on or about November 10, 1973, the day that Nixon asked for a "voluntary" 50 mph speed and around when gasoline suddenly became hard to find, and started to rise sharply in price. It was a scary era.

Since Volcker and Reagan broke the back of inflation, almost anything that has happened has not generated a general rise in prices. One friend believes, in hindsight, that the Great Inflation was a fluke that result from leftover pent-up demand from WW-II, and the "guns and butter" policies of the Vietnam era. I believe that the leftover effects of Nixon's wage and price controls had a pernicious role.

I also wonder, and am throwing this out there, that measured money supply is increasing rapidly, but that technology has changed the relevant measures in ways we don't entirely understand. Thoughts?
Technology might speed up transactions a bit.

But when you talk 'measured' money supply you need to consider where that money lies and what it will be doing.

For instance USD's overseas does not directly compete for goods here. And excess US bank reserves might just sit.

The new normal is low inflation.
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Old 01-01-2019, 07:41 PM
 
Location: USA
14,460 posts, read 7,718,024 times
Reputation: 10484
It depends on if you think our CPI actually measures real inflation. Also, did QE really do that much for the economy, and GDP growth rate? Pretty tepid if you ask me.
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Old 01-01-2019, 07:58 PM
 
8,479 posts, read 3,607,393 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot1 View Post
It depends on if you think our CPI actually measures real inflation. Also, did QE really do that much for the economy, and GDP growth rate? Pretty tepid if you ask me.
The MIT billion prices project gives some good CPI related info.

Our Public Data – The Billion Prices Project

More than anything QE inflated stock market assets. It was weak sauce for the general economy.
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Old 01-01-2019, 08:03 PM
 
Location: USA
14,460 posts, read 7,718,024 times
Reputation: 10484
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
The MIT billion prices project gives some good CPI related info.

Our Public Data The Billion Prices Project

More than anything QE inflated stock market assets. It was weak sauce for the general economy.
Agreed, and tightening is now doing the opposite. So it seems Monetary Policy is running the stock markets, and possibly not the larger, general economy. Why is the Fed tightening so much, so quickly? Phantom inflation avoidance?
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Old 01-01-2019, 08:28 PM
 
8,479 posts, read 3,607,393 times
Reputation: 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot1 View Post
Agreed, and tightening is now doing the opposite. So it seems Monetary Policy is running the stock markets, and possibly not the larger, general economy. Why is the Fed tightening so much, so quickly? Phantom inflation avoidance?
Good one!

They mean business! And I think we agree they are a bit over zealous.
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Old 01-01-2019, 09:26 PM
 
876 posts, read 304,393 times
Reputation: 2737
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
Why Didn't Quantitative Easing Lead To Hyperinflation?

Interesting to note that the FED is getting back our money in the form of interest payments on the debt they are holding. At some point they will also be able to sell the bonds. All that money is then rebated to the Treasury (taxpayers).

Interesting graphs regarding the M0 and M2 money supply. And a good explanation why hyperinflation has occurred in places like Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe and not the US.

I get that the libertarians took their best shot back in 2009 forecasting all kinds of "sky is falling" scenarios. But, given that their economic predictions have proven to be woefully inadequate, it appears that history has deprived them of any and all economic credibility. Not that that will stop them from decrying the FED and ignoring the impact FED policy has had on stabilizing the economy.


IT WAS EXPORTED!


yay.
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Old Yesterday, 01:50 AM
 
812 posts, read 446,744 times
Reputation: 1206
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilot1 View Post
Why is the Fed tightening so much, so quickly? Phantom inflation avoidance?
America needs a strong dollar to increase saving and to demolish debt. THE FED UNWIND of the balance sheet is designed to do this, begin to repair what QE did or didn't do. QE protected debt, encouraged more. But the world has too much debt. It need to reduce debt.

We think we can skip the DEFLATION SEASON, the shadow side of the economy. WE CANNOT.
Bernanke's Folly is being UNWOUND, finally.
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