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Old 03-08-2015, 01:59 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
Japan hasn't done that badly. If you start at 1980, their growth has been quite good. It just doesn't look that great from 1990 til ~2000. Since then though, they've done as well as other developed countries. Obviously there were some huge bubbles generated during the 80's and it takes a long while to correct that.



Also, when a country reaches the upper echelons of industrialization and technology, further growth becomes more difficult. Japan is clearly as technologically advanced as anyone, but they have some real negatives where natural resources are concerned. Inefficient cultural habits and rent seeking also limit growth.
That and the differential in real wages from the not yet industrialized nations and the post industrialized one. Addressing that differential would help substantially.
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Old 03-08-2015, 03:06 PM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon View Post
That and the differential in real wages from the not yet industrialized nations and the post industrialized one. Addressing that differential would help substantially.
Not sure what you mean. In spite of their dearth of resources Japan has had a very high trade surplus until recently. Cheap foreign labor is not an issue for them, and frankly there is no reason why it needs to be in the US either. Our sustained high trade deficit was purposely caused to serve a hidden agenda.

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Old 03-08-2015, 03:18 PM
 
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Originally Posted by rruff View Post
Not sure what you mean. In spite of their dearth of resources Japan has had a very high trade surplus until recently.
Their model was very successful. A very high domestic savings rate and steep protectionism. It was their real estate bubble that did them in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
Cheap foreign labor is not an issue for them, and frankly there is no reason why it needs to be in the US either.
We just need a higher domestic savings rate, and that savings needs to happen in banks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rruff View Post
Our sustained high trade deficit was purposely caused to serve a hidden agenda.
I don't like to state it that strongly. But...

There is a point or to in that direction. Simple greed explains a lot.
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Old 03-09-2015, 12:01 AM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon View Post
We just need a higher domestic savings rate, and that savings needs to happen in banks.
How would that have solved the problem? How would it now? There were other factors in play with much bigger effects.

I think we need a weaker dollar to close our trade gap and spur domestic investment. Don't see any other sensible way to do it.
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Old 03-09-2015, 12:04 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Opin_Yunated View Post
Actually the US doesn't have a real growing populaltion. Our population growth is strictly from immigration. We are below replacement.
This is true. And why I believe that this whole partisan farce regarding immigration will eventually be a moot point. If/when Mexico's economy improves, that cheap labor source will diminish greatly as opportunities arise domestically in Mexico. The US will then need to lure immigrants through better working conditions and wages. We may lament those days of cheap labor that drove our economy when farms, restaurants, hotels, etc are forced to raise wages and prices.

We need to be focused on selecting the best immigrants, not denying them access.
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Old 03-09-2015, 12:19 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adrian71 View Post
Yes. This "recovery" is a very flimsy one. Companies are giving the illusion of success by buying back stocks and increasing dividend payouts, masking a lack of real growth. You have companies like Apple literally sitting on tens of billions of dollars in cash. Companies simply aren't spending. The dip in unemployment is largely illusory. When you consider that the number of adults in the workforce is at a multi-decade low, it starts to become clear that there is no economic recovery for the ordinary person. Ordinary people are drowning in debt just to get by, and those who haven't given up looking for work sometimes have to work two or three jobs because the only things being offered are part-time jobs with poverty wages.

I have a bad feeling this is all going to collapse like a house of cards.
The fact companies are holding back on spending and the economy is doing as well as it is, is actually a good thing. They will have to raise CapEx eventually, which will further assist GDP. It is inevitable. There is a labor shortage on the horizon (already evident in skilled labor) which will effect wage growth. With unemployment down to 5.5% we are still not seeing the labor participation rate (adults in the workforce) improve. This suggests those people are voluntarily not returning to the workforce, not that they cannot find jobs. They simply do not want jobs, i.e. retirement.

A six year trend of lower unemployment is hardly illusory. That would suggest the vast majority of economist are being duped, but those who base their suspicions on nothing but supposition and feelings have it figured out. These same people base their opinions on nothing but the idea that economists are stupid, or there is a conspiracy afoot, or anecdotes tell the story are the ones I would discount - in favor of educated professionals, who perform a function for a living.

The issue of wage growth could not be addressed while the unemployment numbers were as high as they were. Now they can be, and there are indications that wages are finally beginning to rise. Part time work is also a legitimate issue and as the economy continues to improve, companies will transition to hiring more full time workers, partly with all that money they are hoarding and partly due to pent up demand.

"Bad feelings" are not empirical evidence.
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Old 03-09-2015, 12:55 AM
 
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Yes ;just as long term people saving and eliminating debt is good. Eventually spending what you do not produce has consequence; look at Greece.
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Old 03-09-2015, 09:24 AM
 
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Originally Posted by texdav View Post
Yes ;just as long term people saving and eliminating debt is good. Eventually spending what you do not produce has consequence; look at Greece.
If everyone saves and doesn't spend that is not a good scenario for a consumption and debt based economy as is the USA. Greece is screwed because it doesn't own its currency. It can't fight economic recession, and it sure couldn't fight a war.
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Old 03-09-2015, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
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Originally Posted by shaker281 View Post
We need to be focused on selecting the best immigrants, not denying them access.
We don't need more people. In a few decades population reduction will be all the rage.
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Old 03-09-2015, 09:29 AM
 
Location: Ruidoso, NM
5,170 posts, read 4,731,643 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
Yes ;just as long term people saving and eliminating debt is good. Eventually spending what you do not produce has consequence; look at Greece.
It wasn't a savings issue, it was the huge sustained trade deficit (US and Greece both). You can't solve that by reducing consumption and saving more. You need to lower your currency value so that you can export more and import less.
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