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It is quite easy actually! You just need to have reached your conclusion in advance, focus on anecdotal incidents, and be willing to completely ignore/discount any macro-level evidence to the contrary. It also helps if you have zero understanding of how business works.
For example, you can point out that a dozen of Target's 1,800 locations are being closed, along with a completely misguided assertion that stores should never be closed in a good economy. Then when other posters point out industrial output, retail sales, and consumer spending have all been expanding you wave that off by saying you don't trust those numbers.
Remind me of what exactly, are you going to post a few more news snippets about a chain closing stores or a company laying off employees and claim it is proof of a recession like you're doing now? Please clearly define what you're predicting, are we talking an actual recession or a J.Thomas recession where you can just decide we're currently in one despite all major economic indicators showing the opposite. It is easy to be correct when you can set your own reality level to wherever you need it to be.
Also, if there is in fact a recession as defined by common economic indicators (retail sales down 10%) wouldn't those numbers be something you couldn't use to prove a point since you claim you don't trust them? Or maybe the official numbers are only manipulated and sneaky when they don't align with your beliefs.
Remind me of what exactly, are you going to post a few more news snippets about a chain closing stores or a company laying off employees and claim it is proof of a recession like you're doing now? Please clearly define what you're predicting, are we talking an actual recession or a J.Thomas recession where you can just decide we're currently in one despite all major economic indicators showing the opposite. It is easy to be correct when you can set your own reality level to wherever you need it to be.
Also, if there is in fact a recession as defined by common economic indicators (retail sales down 10%) wouldn't those numbers be something you couldn't use to prove a point since you claim you don't trust them? Or maybe the official numbers are only manipulated and sneaky when they don't align with your beliefs.
Recession is defined as having negative growth for two consecutive quarters.(Even -0.1% counts)
We are getting there.
It's just looming now.
Canada is in recession,UK almost, Europe is barely positive.
It's a deflationary cycle. QE infinity will never solve the problem, which is a big problem... Because it's the only trick up the Fed's sleeves... At least, the only sound option. Of course, they could allow the free market to dictate things, but than America would probably look like a banana republic, so I'm not sure many folks would like that either.
Recession is defined as having negative growth for two consecutive quarters.(Even -0.1% counts)
We are getting there.
It's just looming now.
Canada is in recession,UK almost, Europe is barely positive.
Japan is shrinking after numerous QEs.
I mean jesus what more you want
You really do not understand retail. Retail has slight shifts both up and down, depending on weather, and many other factors. It happens on a regular basis. 0.01% is a very small change and is nothing to worry about. One reason for last month being down slightly, is the weather was warmer than normal, so people put off buying winter clothing. If the weather had been colder than normal they would have rushed in for winter clothing, and the trend would have been up.
One reason that the in store volume went down 1% for some big stores, was their online sales went up to 12% of all retail sales. Actual retail sales including in store and online will increase under these circumstances. I went shopping at Walmart for non perishable groceries yesterday. Their prices are way lower than local independent grocery store. I spent $290 for a months supply of these items. Instead of driving 100 mile round trip to the chain groceries, I did it on line. Things will be here in about 5 days via free shipping. Saved 100 mile round trim and $15 in gas. Saved 2 hours time to go to and from the store and another hour and a half or so walking around the store. In addition saved money by shopping on line. One item I buy costs $5 at the Walmart store. $4.44 on line, and they have a double size for only $2 more which I got that is not available in either stores. It is $8.95 locally. Alfredo Sauce, costs $4.46 here in town, and on line I bought the same Paul Newman's for $1.97 per bottle. It is surprising how many dollars we save buying groceries on line.
As someone that spent my entire working career in the business world, and 10 years of that was in retail (earning $125,000 plus in today's dollars per year selling furniture) and managing some of them I understand. I also sold some businesses while a real estate broker.
I understand retail, and are well aware there is no recession going on or coming in the retail business world.
Ahh so now we're "getting there" with a retail recession?
So you started a thread with the alarmist title "Retails is in a major recession!!!" (present tense) but when called out on reality not matching you dance a bit saying you don't care what the data says, before finally retreating to a vague prediction of it looming in the future.
QE ended over a year ago, I don't think you understand what the word infinity means.
Wrong again.
QE continues but not for those who believe the government propagandas hook, line, and sinker. I guess headlines are all that are needed to convince the gullible, the naive, or the propagandists themselves. Others think for themselves and know if something stinks then they have to look for the cause.
QE ended over a year ago, I don't think you understand what the word infinity means.
I don't think many people understand why low low interest rates are punishing and counterproductive. Of course, so long as the rest of the developed world trashes their financial system, than we can all lose together, and celebrate it as the new normal.
All this sacrifice to prop up a failing and increasingly inefficient financial system.
Quote:
Originally Posted by richrf
Wrong again.
QE continues but not for those who believe the government propagandas hook, line, and sinker. I guess headlines are all that are needed to convince the gullible, the naive, or the propagandists themselves. Others think for themselves and know if something stinks then they have to look for the cause.
And we are not the only country that experiments with our money supply in such a manner. I am always hearing QE associated with Europe, China and Japan.
I don't think many people understand why low low interest rates are punishing and counterproductive. Of course, so long as the rest of the developed world trashes their financial system, than we can all lose together, and celebrate it as the new normal.
All this sacrifice to prop up a failing and increasingly inefficient financial system.
And we are not the only country that experiments with our money supply in such a manner. I am always hearing QE associated with Europe, China and Japan.
The QE is lazy money. It does not encourage real investment that produces a longterm cash-flow but instead lazy investment for quick gains and stock speculation. When the cost of money is higher a stronger vetting process takes place as money from investors goes through more scrutiny since investors are getting a decent return from less risky investments. With more retirement funds focusing on the same investments (S&P, DOW, and other index funds) there is too much money chasing the same companies. Many of these companies lack any real growth ideas and just use money to consolidate, buy their own stock back or invest in other companies' stock to enhance their own quarterly reports.
The only solution is true employment growth and greater participation in the work force. This can be accomplished by focusing on product and service development of true societal need such as 21st-Century alternative energy power systems, transmission infrastructure, transportation products, and well-designed energy efficient buildings/housing. Add in healthy locally-sourced agriculture and food production and there are numerous opportunities for domestic job growth. The wealth gap needs to be addressed as a disappearing middle class leads to decreased standard of living and an increased level of domestic problems.
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