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you gotta love predicting. boy if we could get 3 predictions right in a row we could all be billionaires said peter lynch. when it comes to markets if you spend an hour a day studying and following economics you probley wasted 55 minutes of your time.
if anything this past week in the markets demonstrates once again that despite what anyone thinks ,the markets have a life and mind of their own. things from left field appear all the time, things that arent even on the radar that make all our logic, predicting and calculations go right down the drain.
dont forget all markets have access to the same info at any given moment so everything known is figured in at that moment. its the un-expected that makes thinks happen to prices. we all see the same slow down, we all see oil dropping in a slow down , we may even see the world awash in oil with that slow down but what we cant see are those little goodies waiting under the radar to spring out at the markets and make any discussion on predicting just that, a discussion on fortune telling. so while its fun and stimulating its like trying to guess the outcome of some sporting event next year and the winner is a new team that hasnt been even formed yet.
theres a book that i grew up with that i call my bible of investing that has had the greatest effect on my investment strategy and philosophy written by a man who i think was one of the smartest men in the investment world. harry brown and the book is WHY THE BEST LAID INVESTMENT PLANS USUALLY GO WRONG!
old harry died last year but his advise is timeless. basically dont rule out uncertainty ,plan for it. the book deals with dealing with all the uncertainty and all the methods of predicting and then how to protect yourself from being like the herd
Last edited by mathjak107; 02-03-2008 at 03:17 AM..
Now let's bring the conversation full circle. How will these facts affect NEPA high oil/crashing dollar?
IMHO, It will be the commuter class most affected. If and I mean If gas prices rise even 50% more. Their will be many in the region that go belly up financially. This will again have ruinous results for the local area that in many ways is still recovering from the loss of the coal industry. So for them lets hope the price stays reasonable.
To the rest of us.... I don't figure it will have that big of an impact. We don't drive all that far for the most part. But we will be affected by the shaky economy. But we have been their and done that before.
Back to the coming oil crisis.......
If china grows as they are or even close. They will use the same amount of oil as us by 2030. So the price of oil short term could go down, But it's not very likely. The long term outlook is for the price to increase to the point of usage suppression. We haven't yet come close to that point. We may be in what I've read to be the calm before the storm.
nepa has no manufacturing jobs in companies with big overseas markets so the weak dollar wont benefit the local economy . a weak dollar can and may put pressure on prices as foreign goods become more expensive giving the american manufacturers leeway to increase prices to recover some profit that have been lost to rising commodities pricing. all in all high oil and weak dollar aint going to help
we are finding less and less new oil reserves each year with increasing demand. even a slow down may not help much. for 2 years now i have been holding USO a fund that invests in just barrells of oil. kind of like my hedge against prices continuing to rise. actually i look at it more like insurance than an investment. like my home insurance i hope i dont use it. if im down it means energy prices are dropping and overall ill do even better. but if they rise i get a little rebate. so far made enough to cover all my fuel for the next few years
i think more than worrying about what if prices keep sky rocketing alot of people should be planning more for an assortment of what if's..... rather than complaining to no avail when prices rise why not profit from it too. that does more good than idly standing by and hoping they dont. we buy all kinds of useless insurance alot of times insuring things that may never happen but for fear of loosing a dollar we wont act and insure our very economic well being. what if im wrong about my views of up coming events? thats a question everyone should be building into their own investments covering all the bases of what if's so an unexpected event dosnt leave you financially devastated. if oil hits 200 a barrell because of an all out war in the mid-east what would that do to you financially? if we head the other way and high oil prices end up sucking the life out of the economy and we deflate , how are you protecting yourself from that? the answere is everyone has to review their investments better and just cover all the bases.
Hi Hat, It is amazing how it has gotten this far without any real developments on the alterna energy front, isn't it? My own feeling tends toward global conspiracy on the part of the power elite who own these multinational corporation profiteering at our expense. For as wild as it sounds, it's the only thing that can explain it in my mind.
There are a lot of amazing scientists working on fascinating energy experiments. Why their research does not receive more funding blows my mind. If we had put all the Iraq war money behind renewable energy instead, imagine what our Now could've been like, instead we have a serious recession and countless hard-working people who can not even afford to heat their homes this winter.
Good Morning, MermanMike,
I agree with the aspect of alternative energy front and wonder why we have waited so long but then again you are so right when you say that the big guys and big corporations are profiting at our expense. All these people in high power could care less about the middle class - because they will always have the power and the funds to get what they need.
Funding is a great topic. When you think about the billions and billions they are blowing on this war, it makes you wonder. And, yes, I think NEPA will see people suffer on fixed incomes and the rise and cost of oil to heat their homes. Forget about the commuters, they are going to be hit hard.
Your views are real and human to all of us, and it refreshing to see youself and others on this thread to see things for the way they really are.
Now let's bring the conversation full circle. How will these facts affect NEPA high oil/crashing dollar?
IMHO, It will be the commuter class most affected. If and I mean If gas prices rise even 50% more. Their will be many in the region that go belly up financially. This will again have ruinous results for the local area that in many ways is still recovering from the loss of the coal industry. So for them lets hope the price stays reasonable.
To the rest of us.... I don't figure it will have that big of an impact. We don't drive all that far for the most part. But we will be affected by the shaky economy. But we have been their and done that before.
Back to the coming oil crisis.......
If china grows as they are or even close. They will use the same amount of oil as us by 2030. So the price of oil short term could go down, But it's not very likely. The long term outlook is for the price to increase to the point of usage suppression. We haven't yet come close to that point. We may be in what I've read to be the calm before the storm.
This time I'm going to agree with some of what you say. How is this going to affect the Pocono's region?
Many state that the Poconos, since prices are already affordable, shouldn't be affected. Unfortunately, the Poconos is in a very precarious position. If gas prices were to continue to rise, the commuter class will be seeking to sell their homes, and bring more of a glut of homes onto the market.
Of course there will be those who have a bit of money in the bank, and will merely purchase a Toyota Prius or something along those lines, to compensate.
Here's the bottom line:
The value of homes in the Poconos is dependant on high prices in NJ and NYC. If home prices in NJ and NYC begin to plummet (and I highly doubt these regions will be as effected as the rest of the nation), the Poconos will see their affordable prices become even more affordable.
It's really hard to predict things right now, but this is a possibility.
With that said, I don't see gas prices going above $3.50 over the summer, and after the summer, I see them going down below $2 a gallon easy.
I question the assumption that China will grow, when China depends on market conditions to do so.
all this is happening because we bought our place in nepa in july. the ski resort went bankrupt after 40 years the year we buy, housing values plummett , oil sores. yep all my fault.
i cant imagine how the people who work locally in nepa can make a go of things lately. prices are getting so out of control and raises are next to non existant so far no matter where your work. theres a limit to the number of things you can find a cheaper substitution on which is exactly how the gov'ts cpi index expects you to act. grapes to expensive, eat apples. ice cream to high eat ices. ive worked my own personal cpi index and im up around 10% over last year in my expenses .
Last edited by mathjak107; 02-03-2008 at 11:55 AM..
Back to the coming oil crisis.......
If china grows as they are or even close. They will use the same amount of oil as us by 2030. So the price of oil short term could go down, But it's not very likely. The long term outlook is for the price to increase to the point of usage suppression. We haven't yet come close to that point. We may be in what I've read to be the calm before the storm.
Excellent interview yesterday on Financial Sense regarding the energy situation.
all this is happening because we bought our place in nepa in july. the ski resort went bankrupt after 40 years the year we buy, housing values plummett , oil sores. yep all my fault.
i cant imagine how the people who work locally in nepa can make a go of things lately. prices are getting so out of control and raises are next to non existant so far no matter where your work. theres a limit to the number of things you can find a cheaper substitution on which is exactly how the gov'ts cpi index expects you to act. grapes to expensive, eat apples. ice cream to high eat ices. ive worked my own personal cpi index and im up around 10% over last year in my expenses .
This is really an experience many in this nation are facing right now. Believe me, folks can only keep up with these increasing prices for so long before they have to reduce their consumption. These prices can't increase like this forever when our consumers are the demand for many of these products in the first place.
It isn't like this is Zimbabwe where a 10,000 increase in prices is to be expected, and won't effect the rest of the world. Regardless of what folks think, we matter to the rest of the world, and our behavior will effect the bottom line of other nations.
i was just listening to the round table on the link that was posted. very interesting. they feel the biggest internal demand is coming from within the opec countries themselves. their own internal consumption has been ramping up so much that mexico may no longer even be an exporter in a few years. the rest have been canibalizing their own exports so much that new production is still less than whats been sucked out internally. they dont feel a slow done globaly would effect prices beyond a 10 or 15 % dip as the demand from everywhere is increasing at rates that are well beyond what even a slow down would subtract out give a listen. its long but interesting
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