ZeroHedge/ShadowStats and hyperinflation (2015, calculate, percentage, real estate)
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I know a few of the posters on here are big fans of ZeroHedge, which as far as I can tell just predicts impending economic calamity over and over with lots of graphs and cherry picked stats.
Let's take one aspect: hyperinflation on ZeroHedge.
That’s why I think there’ll be hyperinflation in America—that bubble’s soon to pop. I’m guessing if it doesn’t happen this fall, it’ll happen next fall, without question before the end of 2011.
I can easily do the same thing for the stock market, the dollar, employment, etc.
Can anyone tell me why they would worship the writers of this site as insightful financial wisdom when they clearly demonstrate they are utterly clueless year after year? Does anyone actually make financial moves with real assets based on what they read on ZeroHedge, and if so calculated how much that has cost you?
The price of my suits has hyperinflated. I used to pay $6-$700 just a couple of years ago, but now it's around $1.2K. #%*!,~<%.
Seriously though, the people using ZeroHedge as their source for these predictions very rarely have any kind of background in economics, much less financial markets. It wasn't that long ago that the quarterly GDP either decreased or was negative and they were trying to claim we were already in a recession. The sweet irony is I posted what our chief economist (whom is very conservative in his estimates) was predicting and what he was putting in the letters to our clients about the expected results for the next quarter. When the next quarter rolled around the numbers he predicted were almost exact. All those people claiming a recession went silent and some were trying to say anything but admit they were wrong.
I wish I could find that post... I think it was in Jan of this year right after the 4th Q results came out. It's in that cesspool of P&OC, so it's probably buried by now.
Four of those five inflation articles are sourced from external blogs. Some of those consist of constant doomsday material.
They often have good articles sourced from Wall Street analysts. You can find them there and sometimes on Yahoo news.
Commodities have been heavily affected by the exchange rate for the US dollar and QE.
I think if the inflation rate was measured accurately, the rate probably would be about 2.4 percentage points higher just on the inclusion of housing and rental inflation.
I think they originally had a recessionary GDP in the 1st quater. The government made extraordinary one-time adjustments to make it positive.
This event also occurred in the downdrafts in 2010, 2011, and earlier this year. MF Global comes to mind. In summer of 2015, it was the Chinese government suspending trading in many of their listed shares.
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The sweet irony is I posted what our chief economist (whom is very conservative in his estimates) was predicting and what he was putting in the letters to our clients about the expected results for the next quarter. When the next quarter rolled around the numbers he predicted were almost exact. All those people claiming a recession went silent and some were trying to say anything but admit they were wrong.
Pretty much all of the WS economists hit the GDP numbers regularly. Their 'estimates' are often very close to each other's figures. Very little surprise there. They're more or less part of the broker-dealers' sales staff.
I know a few of the posters on here are big fans of ZeroHedge, which as far as I can tell just predicts impending economic calamity over and over with lots of graphs and cherry picked stats.
Let's take one aspect: hyperinflation on ZeroHedge.
I can easily do the same thing for the stock market, the dollar, employment, etc.
Can anyone tell me why they would worship the writers of this site as insightful financial wisdom when they clearly demonstrate they are utterly clueless year after year? Does anyone actually make financial moves with real assets based on what they read on ZeroHedge, and if so calculated how much that has cost you?
The first 2 links you use are stories about the Shadowstats guy predicting stuff....not Zerohedge.
The 3rd, and the only link you used that actually is an original Zerohedge article, isnt even about inflation here, its documenting it in another country and how that could look like what happens here.
The next 2 links are by contributors. not Zerohedge.
You have fully failed to understand what Zerohedge is and you didn't read their own disclaimer.
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Zero Hedge is a financial news and information site, not an investment advisor. Making investment decisions based on information published on Zero Hedge, or any internet site for that matter, is more than unwise, it is folly.
There are a handful of extremely smart people with inside knowledge that post under the name "Tyler Durden". Those posts contain lots of really great information and speculation. The posts are widely read in the major financial circles.
They also give voice to contributing authors from various blogs who in their opinion give a skeptical view point of various financial and political stories. This is were the conspiracy theory abounds. While there are a few good articles mixed in here, most are just wild guesses.
Zerohedge isn't about making financial decisions based on the doom and gloom there. Its about getting some very insightful information about whats going on and using that in your own investment strategy.
The first 2 links you use are stories about the Shadowstats guy predicting stuff....not Zerohedge.
The 3rd, and the only link you used that actually is an original Zerohedge article, isnt even about inflation here, its documenting it in another country and how that could look like what happens here.
The next 2 links are by contributors. not Zerohedge.
Nope. They are articles by ZeroHedge that use analysis by a ShawdowStats article to make a point. The content contains excerpts from ShawdowStats but also endorsements of the opinions by ZeroHedge writers.
Tyler Durden's text includes comments like:
"the take home message from Williams' thesis that everyone should be able to agree on, is what everyone knows yet is unwilling to admit: that the US economy (and its derivative, the undecoupled global economy, which that most certainly includes China) is that we are now caught in the greatest Ponzi bubble of all time. "
Regarding Belarus Tyler Durden closes with:
"Alas, there is nothing left to add: this is the future, and it is coming to a developed country near you."
Contributing articles are posted are primarily of the doomsday variety, yes?
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Originally Posted by justanokie
Zerohedge isn't about making financial decisions based on the doom and gloom there. Its about getting some very insightful information about whats going on and using that in your own investment strategy.
Insightful? Like all the stuff from the Tyler Durden author(s) over the years on the stock market?
There's a good article on the Coppock Curve today. It's a long-term market indicator using two monthly rate-of-change indicators. I think it helps if you have prior knowledge of monetary policies and technical analysis so you can evaluate the information. They've had good articles on monetary policy, corporate share buyback programs, etc. in the the past year. They seem to be really depending on the JPM quant analyst for market calls of late since he's had a hot hand since July.
But you should always have your own insight about economy.
And they really need to stop about this "gold, gold, gold" thing.
Nobody's gonna buy gold.
It's not considered a safe harbor anymore.
You should have a mixed portfolio like real estate, some gold and/or silver, stocks...etc.
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