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Just because a thousand people have predicted a crash and it hasn't happened doesn't mean this prediction can't happen. Maybe this is the one.
Crashes=buying opportunity. I have quite the stockpile of cash waiting for a 50% drop. If that doesn't happen I'll either put a downpayment on a house or buy a car. I win either way. I could care less of fluctuations in my portfolio.
I don't think so. Chase has some rather speculative bets, but Wells Fargo is more traditional in the regular loan industry. The house always wins in the long run.
Wells Fargo stock (WFC) is the only stock I hold as a never sell. It's not a bad time to buy at the moment.
PS. Little accounts being closed are doing banks a favor. They don't make money on your checking account, but they do establish a relationship when money is needed, and have a pretty good history on how you handle money when it comes time for a loan.
The problem with being a doomsayer albeit perpetual skeptic is that we are disliked because human nature cries out for " stop that mindset" !!! We are misunderstood many believing we seek doom when the opposite exists. The doom is generated from analysis of stats, news and editorials, market trends, prophecy, condition of economy (debt), world financial condition and behavior, weather, realizing error and miscues can impact outcome, projectung dates , but we remain interested and driven by mostly the disinterest ,ignorance ( by those we hold as intelligent) and a disconnect many people in society ,who haven't a clue what's occurring around them. I for one evolved into a self appointed guru even when lacking the credentials to be anything but be perceived as having a irritating voice of negativism when anyone who knows me considers me a extremely positive , overwhelmingly happy, believing christian. I predicted a world financial crisis within the Jubilee year of Shemitah for instance not using ANY other indicators, charts ,maps, or expert opinion why? Shemitah is a judgment by God on primarily all financial institutions that renders ALL influencers, experts, conditions moot. This will never be grasped as finances are con-trolled by salivating unaware secular fools 100% disconnect from "that religious God stuff"......never mind.
Financial institutions are fundamentally different from other forms of businesses. By their very nature, financial institutions can be fine on Monday and go out of business on Thursday. All it takes is a "run on the bank" in one form or another -- a loss of confidence, or a change in risk profile (for example, let's say the EU decides to "guarantee" all obligations of EU banks -- overnight there would be a massive shift of deposits in and lending to US banks over to EU banks, which in turn would cause many US banks to cease to exist.
Unlike financial institutions, manufacturers, retailers, service providers and other forms of business generally can stretch creditors out for months. Not so financial institutions. Several months gives other forms of business enough time, in many cases, to restructure. Financial institutions might only have a weekend to react to a confidence crisis.
This unique feature of financial institutions is why the US and much of the EU had to nationalize systemically important banks. They were OK on Monday, but on the verge of failure by Friday. Once nationalized with the implicit or explicit guarantees of the US Government, then other forms of non-bank financial entities such as GE Capital are at such a severe disadvantage that they, too can go under in a matter of days. Why lend to GE Capital, for example, when you can lend to Morgan Stanley or BofA and have your capital safeguarded? That is why the commercial paper market dried up during the Great Recession.
All it takes is a lack of confidence and a Short Play. During the Great Recession, the SEC even had a rule against shorts on a set of named banks for a short period of time (about 20 or 30 days if I recall) because of the feedback loop: lack of confidence in a financial institution caused shorts to pile on dropping the price of the stock, which in turn caused lenders to that bank to call their loans and depositors to pull their deposits, causing the shorts to pile on even more...
Much of the change in law and regulation of financial institutions over the past 8 years has been to address the key learnings about systemically important financial institutions. Increases in capital, requirements to pass stress tests, deleveraging, etc are all designed to reduce the risk of a run on the bank during the next crisis.
Might be premature ,but these two banks are suffering from devaluation and its pure speculation as to why? The banking industry is suffering from diminishing deposits from a public drained financially, 50% of jobs part-time and retailers cutting the part-time to fewer hours scamming workers to works core business hours rather than a complete 8 hour shift, thereby limiting investment products, and depositing loose change figuratively speaking. The real blow to banking is the inability to allow for deposits exceeding 9k before neck hairs in the security go spiking cancelling out millions perhaps billions of deposits IRA's , CD's, Roth's and due to laundering, suspicious at risk deposits. Instead of creating a screening and up front guarantee deposits are rejected ? Banks lump monies daily into Treasury Notes which do not guarantee consistent return. The loans are generally PRIME based and the consequences of that brainstorm can and does eliminate customers. Banks seem to mimmic a car dealership having zero deals , stripped of innovation, and restrictive to a point that may make banks a horror story for the grandkids that once upon a time there were banks ......no really? What's in YOUR wallet...keep it there! Wells and Chase have great staffers and service ,but unless they become micromanaged with added innovation they could become dino's?
What evidence do you have that Wells Fargo is on the downward spiral?
The problem with being a doomsayer albeit perpetual skeptic is that we are disliked because human nature cries out for " stop that mindset" !!!
I don't think this is the case at all. Most of the criticism I have for the perpetual doomsday people on here is related to:
1. Cherry picking information. So many doomer types will grab any news item that suits their worldview but dismiss anything that counters it as propaganda and lies.
2. Gross exaggeration/hyperbole. The United States doesn't produce anything anymore. There is no middle class left. There are no well paying jobs available. Etc.
3. Making the same predictions over and over and no matter how many times they are wrong will somehow try to twist it into actually being right.
4. Black or white view. If you don't agree that US is about to collapse then you must think everything is perfect and there are no problems with the economy. There is a lot of gray area between impending collapse and everything is just dandy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by openmike
I predicted a world financial crisis within the Jubilee year of Shemitah for instance not using ANY other indicators, charts ,maps, or expert opinion why? Shemitah is a judgment by God on primarily all financial institutions that renders ALL influencers, experts, conditions moot.
Perfect example of #3 above.
You predicted that in 2015 we'd see economic collapse of the international momentary system, largest crash in US history, and martial law. I can find the post if you'd like. You also constantly called for some cataclysmic economic crash in September due to whatever seven year Shamalama Ding Dong cycle, which didn't happen.
Yet now I see you repeatedly trying to latch onto a 12% stock market correction as validation of your prognostication prowess. It is ridiculous.
Bank of America seems to be the big bank that's in a bit of trouble, and that not disastrous. JPM and WFC look reasonably strong as far as big domestic banks go.
WFC has had some legal trouble but it looks like they can afford it.
The only way something could go wrong is if there's an Enron type of situation going on inside them. In other words, they're cooking books and we're not aware.
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