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Old 02-20-2016, 01:29 PM
 
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I think this is a good graph



Here US doesn't seem that bad but of course we have more debt just not ratio.

2016 doesn't seem so positive cause all this debt will be a drag on growth.
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Old 02-20-2016, 01:33 PM
 
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I like that graph too. Global debt bubble. Pop goes the world.
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Old 02-20-2016, 01:33 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J.Thomas View Post
I think this is a good graph



Here US doesn't seem that bad but of course we have more debt just not ratio.

2016 doesn't seem so positive cause all this debt will be a drag on growth.
Try doing the plot as debt-to-revenue and see where the US ends up.
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Old 02-20-2016, 01:42 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
Try doing the plot as debt-to-revenue and see where the US ends up.
What revenue??
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Old 02-20-2016, 01:44 PM
 
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Originally Posted by J.Thomas View Post
What revenue??
What debt? Government debt vs. government revenue, business debt vs. business revenue, etc.

Always compare like to like.
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Old 02-20-2016, 01:49 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ncole1 View Post
What debt? Government debt vs. government revenue, business debt vs. business revenue, etc.

Always compare like to like.
I couldn't find such graph.

Would be very happy if you can add

Federal tax revenue is like $3.2T.

And debt is $19T.

How about other countries??
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Old 02-20-2016, 01:50 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J.Thomas View Post
I couldn't find such graph.

Would be very happy if you can add

Federal tax revenue is like $3.2T.

And debt is $19T.

How about other countries??
Forget Debt To GDP, It's Debt To Revenue That Matters--And The U.S. Is The Worst - Business Insider
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Old 02-20-2016, 04:45 PM
 
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It's questionable how relevant those debt to GDP ratios are.

Look at the Netherlands or Belgium. A huge debt to GDP ratio, but that's not a problem. Both countries have a huge positive net international investment position. That means the value of their external assets is much bigger than their external liabilities. For example corporations have a huge amount of debt, but also a huge amount of assets in foreign countries.

It's dangerous when a country has a fierce negative net international investment position. That's the case in countries like Greece, Portugal, Spain or Ireland. Ireland will get out of the mess easily. But for the other 3 countries it will be very challenging.

Netherlands: +60.8% of GDP
Belgium: +59.1%
Denmark: +47.0%
Germany: +42.3%
France: -19.5%
UK: -24.1%
Italy: -27.9%
Spain: -94.1%
Ireland: -106.7%
Portugal: -113,3%
Greece: -124.1%

The figure for the U.S. is about -40%

Eurostat - Tables, Graphs and Maps Interface (TGM) table


Those net international investment positions are mostly the result of accumulated current account surplusses or deficits. Ireland is deeply in the red because of the Irish banks. But that could change very quickly.
The deficit of the U.S. is in my opinion not a problem because of the USD (lender of last resort). But not sure whether I'm right about that.
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Old 02-20-2016, 04:49 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lukas1973 View Post
It's questionable how relevant those debt to GDP ratios are.

Look at the Netherlands or Belgium. A huge debt to GDP ratio, but that's not a problem. Both countries have a huge positive net international investment position. That means the value of their external assets is much bigger than their external liabilities. For example corporations have a huge amount of debt, but also a huge amount of assets in foreign countries.

It's dangerous when a country has a fierce negative net international investment position. That's the case in countries like Greece, Portugal, Spain or Ireland. Ireland will get out of the mess easily. But for the other 3 countries it will be very challenging.

Netherlands: +60.8% of GDP
Belgium: +59.1%
Denmark: +47.0%
Germany: +42.3%
France: -19.5%
UK: -24.1%
Italy: -27.9%
Spain: -94.1%
Ireland: -106.7%
Portugal: -113,3%
Greece: -124.1%

The figure for the U.S. is about -40%

Eurostat - Tables, Graphs and Maps Interface (TGM) table


Those net international investment positions are mostly the result of accumulated current account surplusses or deficits. Ireland is deeply in the red because of the Irish banks. But that could change very quickly.
The deficit of the U.S. is in my opinion not a problem because of the USD (lender of last resort). But not sure whether I'm right about that.
Just wait till these countries see their exports falling

There is almost an export bubble in the world now.

I can understand Germany obviously but what about Dutch, Belgium or Denmark??

What are they exporting??
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Old 02-20-2016, 04:57 PM
 
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The Elephant In The Room: Debt Grows Exponentially, While Economies Only Grow In An S-Curve → Washingtons Blog


nice one enjoy
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