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LOL yeah I bet just like Peter Schiff you correctly called 65 of the last 2 recessions.
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Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon
How about the next recession will look like the last one only worse?
And if it isn't, we know you'll decide which data is valid to claim it is anyway while dismissing the rest as invalid or cooked books. It is easy to always be right when everything is "some day you'll see" and being correct is as simple as picking your own reality.
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Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon
I'd invite you to look here for a jobs report that doesn't get revised after the fact.
Jobs report gets revised up, and it gets revised down. So do many other measures. Your response is irrelevant unless you're claiming there will be a revision that shows 0 jobs gained.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon
After falling quarter on quarter for 23 qt in a row the credit card charge off rates should be at an all time low. A slow but steadily expanding economy will get you that. Now it isn't like it was for the past 6 years. They are going up so the slow expansion is over. The contraction has begun.
And if CC delinquencies are a measure of economy, why do you say the economy sucks when they are still at historical lows?
The methodology they use. They look at tax revenues and tax reports. They count the new jobs, they don't do a statistical analysis.
You keep using the two quarters of credit card delinquencies to support your latest impending doom scenarios, yet like most economic data the commonly reported numbers are seasonally adjusted. If you don't like statistical analysis why do you lean on this data so much?
I've circled your two quarter increase, and the source showing all banks "SA" seasonally adjusted. So which is it, are we accepting data that uses statistical methods to give more accurate results or not? Your constant references to this two quarters increase seems at odds with your battle cry of rejected all data that is processed since it is "cooked books" by your definition. I guess it is only accepted when fits your world view?
And no where in the article does it tell you what indicators to "trust".
That's easy! I've learned the simple rules from the people in this forum.
1. If the indicator supports your opinion, TRUST AS GOOD DATA
2. If the indicator does not support your opinion, COOKED BOOKS LIES PROPAGANDA
Granted this doesn't cover the advanced users where they can use/dismiss the same indicator or source depending on the situation, but I think those two rules will cover about 95% of it.
That's easy! I've learned the simple rules from the people in this forum.
1. If the indicator supports your opinion, TRUST AS GOOD DATA
2. If the indicator does not support your opinion, COOKED BOOKS LIES PROPAGANDA
Granted this doesn't cover the advanced users where they can use/dismiss the same indicator or source depending on the situation, but I think those two rules will cover about 95% of it.
Unsupported assertions, anecdotal evidence, and outright making isht up are the more widely used methods.
...
After falling quarter on quarter for 23 qt in a row the credit card charge off rates should be at an all time low. A slow but steadily expanding economy will get you that. Now it isn't like it was for the past 6 years. They are going up so the slow expansion is over. The contraction has begun.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang
...
And if CC delinquencies are a measure of economy, why do you say the economy sucks when they are still at historical lows?
Allen Greenspan use to look at men's underwear sales to see how tight the economy was. At the start of an economic pinch they would drop first.
An interesting question indeed. Why would I say the economy sucks when they are at historic lows? In part because they are at historic lows. Where we are at doesn't represent business as usual from historic levels. Delinquencies going up after a long decline. Things are different.
Back in 2000's I would ask waitresses what their tips were like to see how the economy felt. A more resent indicator is how easy it is to get good pizza for free. (Sharp decline)
CC delinquencies, Baltic dry, and high Q free pizza, all headed in the same direction up till Jan 31.
So tighter economy is my read.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang
... are seasonally adjusted.
...
The FED isn't actually part of the government. So Who is seasonally adjusting the numbers? And do I trust them? I trust the FED's seasonal adjustment where I don't trust the Governments.
I think that the government is trying to head off economic disaster. Not an objectionable motive but if you are going to make informed decisions then you need accurate data. For example, the real unemployment rate is 15% but they publish 9.8% and so people don't tighten up like it was 15% and the bottom is softer. But if you count on the full effect of 9.8% and get caught out then you loose. If you count on the full 15% unemployment rate then everyone looses. If you split the difference then everyone wins including you.
If Washington’s harping on weapons of mass destruction was essential to buoy public support for the invasion of Iraq, the use of deceptive statistics has played its own vital role in convincing many Americans that the U.S. economy is stronger, fairer, more productive, more dominant, and richer with opportunity than it actually is.
An interesting question indeed. Why would I say the economy sucks when they are at historic lows? In part because they are at historic lows. Where we are at doesn't represent business as usual from historic levels. Delinquencies going up after a long decline. Things are different.
Exactly. Like many who ride an ideology you selectively shape reality to match your conclusion. CC delinquencies going up, must be sign of worsening economy! CC delinquencies low, must be sign of a bad economy! Pretty funny.
I'd be curious how you evaluate falling credit card delinquencies. Also bad!
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon
CC delinquencies, Baltic dry, and high Q free pizza, all headed in the same direction up till Jan 31.
I love me a few rounds of ZeroHedge Buzzword Bingo! Can I get a "Global Liquidity Tracker" for the diagonal?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon
The FED isn't actually part of the government. So Who is seasonally adjusting the numbers? And do I trust them? I trust the FED's seasonal adjustment where I don't trust the Governments.
And how quickly you can slide from "hey this data is no good it isn't pure, cooked books!" to "well I trust their statistical modifications more so it's okay" after you find out the data you've been posting about also undergoes some massaging.
The last thing the speculators that run this economy want is an economy that is strong enough to create demand for workers that wages increase. They are operating to maximize their profits at the expense of the rest of us. Increasing wages by restricting immigration is NOT on their To Do list.
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