Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 06-09-2016, 12:56 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,016 posts, read 7,157,180 times
Reputation: 17106

Advertisements

Quote:
The jobs that will be the last to be automated are the technical type, plumbing, electricians, mechanics, carpenters, etc.. But, these to will be automated eventually.
Even if not automated, better quality materials & computer assisted construction will eliminate the need for so many people to wrench on pipes, engines, etc... because they'll just break down less. We see it happening with cars.

The effect will be increasing anger at the system. I think we already see reaction against it now with Bernie and Trump.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 06-09-2016, 02:13 PM
 
2,007 posts, read 1,266,809 times
Reputation: 1858
Quote:
Originally Posted by Serious Conversation View Post
We've gone through speedy, and at times shocking, technological progress over the past twenty or thirty years.

I'm 30 and remember watching VHS tapes. The tapes were expensive, wore out, were difficult to store, degraded, and weren't mobile. We can now get much better video quality, on demand, with no storage need, no worries about wear or degradation, virtually any time and anywhere on any modern mobile device. That's just an example of what twenty years ago would have seemed impossible is now routine.

We've already been through a major wave of job loss in manufacturing and other blue collar industries. Not only has offshoring impacted the number of jobs, technology has made many fields require far fewer workers. I grew up in an area dependent on coal mining and manufacturing - manufacturing is more productive than ever before but requires fewer workers - mining, to the extent is still available, is increasingly sophisticated and mechanized. There are far fewer workers needed to mine more coal than could be done fifty years ago.

The automation is creeping up the chain of sophistication. Robots and machines are going to soon be able to drive - removing the need for many human truck drivers, cabbies, Uber drivers, etc. Many IT jobs have been automated away and the functions are now done by applications. Systems are often becoming more robust, requiring fewer "maintenance workers" across industries.

Where does society end up going twenty years or so down the line when many medical, legal, technical, and financial jobs can now be more reliably done by a machine that doesn't need a salary, time off, or medical benefits? Basic income? Civil unrest? Make work programs like the CCC? Something more sinister with the surplus population?
I do think 20 years is a liberal estimate for widescale automation of many jobs and tasks. Looks to me, and from speaking with some savvy people in the area , more like 5-10 years.

We could see an inevitable emergence of a true welfare state in the nation, as many workers are displaced en masse from traditional forms of employment. For those who maintain and design the automation industry, higher wages than ever before will surely prevail. The decision will have to be made to tax those working and their corporations enough to cover the costs of assistence for displaced and retired through no fault of their own employees. They will be quite a few in this category in the next decade and thereafter.

Look to see a new world order of tech automation empires facing off against a strong growing movement of those favoring equal opportunity for human workers. Give it another few years and then we all will just put down the protest placards and enjoy the free lunch provided to all the malcontents. All in the form of social welfare payments derived from the taxes of the new tech giants.

The airwaves and webways will be saturated with ads and propaganda telling us how wonderful life is without having to work. For most the message will settle in and just get on with their lives. Those working in life automation will see financial rewards and net worth's to make the current batch of tech billionaires look very measly indeed.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-09-2016, 02:21 PM
 
Location: USA
2,593 posts, read 4,223,901 times
Reputation: 2240
Or who knows, maybe we'll luck out and the North Koreans will decide to detonate nuclear weapons 150 miles in the atmosphere above Washington D.C., Kansas City, and San Francisco.

It would be the largest job creation project of all time.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-09-2016, 02:23 PM
 
1,198 posts, read 1,782,979 times
Reputation: 1728
SMASH THE LOOMS!

Same song new verse.

Consumption will always find a way, and while there will be winners and losers, being wage depressed in America in 2036 will still result in a standard of living better than most people throughout history have known.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-09-2016, 02:54 PM
 
Location: Lower East Side, NYC
2,970 posts, read 2,596,175 times
Reputation: 2371
As a software engineer, I'll be fixing the same broken s*** just under the guise of a different name. We'll still call that s*** features as we're bickering around the board table.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-09-2016, 02:54 PM
 
Location: Concord, CA
7,135 posts, read 9,213,455 times
Reputation: 25382
I've heard this tale of woe for my whole life. I'm now 66. At the beginning of my career I designed circuits with Pentodes (a type of vacuum tube). At the end, I worked with a team designing an integrated circuit with 4 billion devices on it.

Adapt, evolve, learn new tricks.

If we get desperate for jobs for everyone, we can create an unlimited number of jobs rebuilding infrastructure. Many of those jobs don't require a lot of training.

The sky is not falling.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-09-2016, 03:26 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,016 posts, read 7,157,180 times
Reputation: 17106
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDrenter223 View Post
SMASH THE LOOMS!

Same song new verse.

Consumption will always find a way, and while there will be winners and losers, being wage depressed in America in 2036 will still result in a standard of living better than most people throughout history have known.
It's easy to make fun of it, but people died in the labor vs. capital violence of the 19th century. In 1848 alone 7 major governments in Europe toppled, in large part due to urban labor unrest.

We can "ho hum" about it or laugh it off but there can be serious, dangerous unrest over this kind of thing.

Look at Bernie and Trump - both of whom represent a revolt against capitalism in a way. Bernie more direct, but Trump, with his anti-free trade and anti-immigrant agenda is basically running on protectionism - that is NOT free market capitalism.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-09-2016, 05:06 PM
 
Location: moved
13,579 posts, read 9,603,929 times
Reputation: 23333
Player Piano by Kurt Vonnegut
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-09-2016, 05:07 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
15,293 posts, read 17,586,362 times
Reputation: 25230
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
been the story of my life . i started life as a pro drummer and didn't want to be on the road anymore and dj's were killing live music so i became an hvac tech and just kept morphing going where the money was . went from pro drummer to hvac tech - to climate control troubleshooter for the mall systems - in to factory automation products - in to becoming a motor control specialist designing control panels for the water pumping and sewage treatment industry - to retirement.

it was all about taking the basic skills i had in hvac controls and expanding that knowledge out continually in to more lucrative areas as the bigger picture changed .

it takes constant work at learning and a plan to move ahead so you can stay ahead of the curve while everyone else is living in the past and chasing ghosts for jobs .
That's my experience too. I kept taking courses through my entire working life. I have over 400 term credits in a number of fields, plus professional licenses and certifications. At one point I was working as a construction inspector during the day and writing system software for expansion board manufacturers at night. I didn't even own a TV, but had a T-1 line to my house when most people didn't even own a personal computer. What can I say? I'm easily bored, so I just spent my life doing what interested me, with an eye toward making it pay. Taking Japanese at night school made getting Japanese clients a lot easier, plus I got to take trips to Japan and write the expense off on my taxes while taking paid vacation from my "day job."

Intelligence and motivation always pay off. I know some young people starting that path who I suspect will prosper in the future, but dealing with the challenges of robotics and AI will be their problem, not mine. All I want is a self-driving car before the state takes my drivers license away.

BTW, one of the buddies of my youth was also a pro drummer who got a degree in marine biology and ended up working in health care. He and his wife still have a small band that does local weekend gigs. It's not the money, it's the music.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 06-09-2016, 05:12 PM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
15,293 posts, read 17,586,362 times
Reputation: 25230
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevinm View Post
My our problem. They can either adapt or starve.
Any civilisation is only three meals away from revolution. - Rousseau
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top