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Old 10-15-2016, 11:52 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
Considering the vast quantities of materials in global trade, the US Customs Services will need several tens of thousands of employees. Of course such regulatory work has massive expenses without any real value. There would need to be massive depots for the unloading, unpacking and inspection of goods for assessment. Issuing, monitoring and tracking of certificates would require many thousands more employees and a vast administrative system. You would be better off just to have taxes on imports and of course then our goods would be taxed and noncompetitive in the global markets.
Jrkliny, you’re joking of course. You consider “the vast quantities of materials in global trade”; this policy has enough work monitoring goods passing through USA’s national borders.

U.S. Customs and border protection, (i.e. USCBP) service is part of the U.S, Department of Home Security. Monitoring everything entering the USA is the USCBP service’s major task. The funding for satisfying USA exporters requesting their shipments be assessed and the mandatory assessments of all goods entering the USA, and all other direct federal expenses due to the Import Certificate policy are entirely defrayed by the federal Import Certificate fees which exporters have chosen to pay. Exporters request, (they are not required) to have their shipments from the USA assessed. Eventually all of the policy’s net costs are passed onto USA purchasers of imported goods.

Are you referring to any new additional depots for unloaded imports; if so, why? Where are the USBP service now examining import shipments? Do you believe the USBP service now unpacks every entire import shipment?
The federal government doesn’t continuously track U.S. currency. Why do you believe they should or would continuously track Import Certificates? The federal government would record the circumstances for each certificates issued and the circumstances for each certificate surrendered and cancelled.

The justification of Import Certificate policy’s net cost is justified by its beneficial effect upon USA’s GDP and numbers of jobs (which are enormously more jobs than those additional jobs required due to this trade policy.

Last edited by toosie; 10-23-2016 at 03:34 AM.. Reason: Deleted signature
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Old 10-16-2016, 06:13 AM
 
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I am not joking at all. The vast majority of the cargo passing through US ports is not currently inspected. There isn't even space to hold and open cargo containers.


In addition to the huge complexity, this "certificate" program is designed to function as a tax to discourage imports. Why do just impose a tax? Why not just impose selective embargos? There are plenty of isolationist and antitrade policies that would be more effective and cheaper.


I still fail to understand any advantage to building a US economy based on low skilled manufacturing. Take a look at the huge factories that China has built. No one wants to see those factories in their neighborhood. Why do we want to return to jobs of boredom, monotony and little or no opportunity for advancement? Where are we going to get the power to operate heavy manufacturing? Do we want to build more coal fired plants and choke on the smog or perhaps start building big nuclear generators? NIMBY is alive and well. It is all but impossible to build any sort of plants in the US. I worked for a company that built a small 100k square foot facility. We were desperate to expand but it still took 4 years to gain the local approvals and then it took another 2 years to construct the shell of the building. Before you even think of bringing manufacturing back to the US, you might take a took at what the Chinese have built. They have a great many huge factory complexes employing tens of thousands of workers in addition to using highly automated and robotic equipment. It has taken them decades to built those factories and the supporting infrastructure.
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Old 10-16-2016, 08:37 AM
 
8,294 posts, read 3,458,668 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
I am not joking at all. The vast majority of the cargo passing through US ports is not currently inspected. There isn't even space to hold and open cargo containers.


In addition to the huge complexity, this "certificate" program is designed to function as a tax to discourage imports. Why do just impose a tax? Why not just impose selective embargos? There are plenty of isolationist and antitrade policies that would be more effective and cheaper.


I still fail to understand any advantage to building a US economy based on low skilled manufacturing. Take a look at the huge factories that China has built. No one wants to see those factories in their neighborhood. Why do we want to return to jobs of boredom, monotony and little or no opportunity for advancement? Where are we going to get the power to operate heavy manufacturing? Do we want to build more coal fired plants and choke on the smog or perhaps start building big nuclear generators? NIMBY is alive and well. It is all but impossible to build any sort of plants in the US. I worked for a company that built a small 100k square foot facility. We were desperate to expand but it still took 4 years to gain the local approvals and then it took another 2 years to construct the shell of the building. Before you even think of bringing manufacturing back to the US, you might take a took at what the Chinese have built. They have a great many huge factory complexes employing tens of thousands of workers in addition to using highly automated and robotic equipment. It has taken them decades to built those factories and the supporting infrastructure.
Former Midwest industrial blue collar workers want to go back to work. I agree that it will be a time consuming long shot for so many reasons to believe that these jobs will return in enough numbers via Trump. Reducing regulations and taxes will very slowly help, but to an unknown extent. And doing so has to raise the price of those produced goods. So in exchange for supporting that lagging group, the rest of us will willingly agree to higher prices. Higher prices and wages is inflation and what we want. A confusing and hard sell IMO.
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Old 10-16-2016, 09:17 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
I am not joking at all. The vast majority of the cargo passing through US ports is not currently inspected. There isn't even space to hold and open cargo containers. ...
Import Certificates relationship to USA border security:

Jrkliny, I would suppose U.S. Department of Home Security does not devote greater consideration for our nation’s economy and lesser consideration for our nation’s physical security. If you believe that the facilities at the disposal for the department to security screen all shipments entering the USA are adequate to that purpose, then they must certainly be adequate for the assessments of those same shipments.

On the other hand, if you just as I suspect that our security is compromised because the federal government has thus far been reluctant to devote more funds for enlarging those facilities and increasing the manpower actually examining a greater proportion of shipments and a greater proportion of individual boxes or other containers within those shipments, then the Import Certificate policy is providing an additional funding for greater screening of shipments entering the USA.

Currently only those who are concerned with our nation’s security are the only entities lobbying for improved screening of global shipments.
If the Import Certificate policy is adopted, all competing global traders are concerned that their competitors should not mislabel their global shipments passing through USA borders and gain illegal advantages. Additionally, all domestic producers of goods that directly or indirectly compete with imported goods have similar concerns.

Thus the adoption of the Import Certificate proposal will at minimum increase the eyes examining global shipments with no net increase of the federal budget or it may in addition induce governments increased spending for additional facilities that are an additional increase of our border security at some increase of the federal budget.

Last edited by toosie; 10-23-2016 at 03:34 AM.. Reason: Deleted signature
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Old 10-16-2016, 11:12 PM
 
1,029 posts, read 560,388 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
...I still fail to understand any advantage to building a US economy based on low skilled manufacturing. Take a look at the huge factories that China has built. No one wants to see those factories in their neighborhood. Why do we want to return to jobs of boredom, monotony and little or no opportunity for advancement? Where are we going to get the power to operate heavy manufacturing? Do we want to build more coal fired plants and choke on the smog or perhaps start building big nuclear generators? NIMBY is alive and well. It is all but impossible to build any sort of plants in the US. I worked for a company that built a small 100k square foot facility. We were desperate to expand but it still took 4 years to gain the local approvals and then it took another 2 years to construct the shell of the building. Before you even think of bringing manufacturing back to the US, you might take a took at what the Chinese have built. They have a great many huge factory complexes employing tens of thousands of workers in addition to using highly automated and robotic equipment. It has taken them decades to built those factories and the supporting infrastructure.
Markets determine the predominant winning industry due to the nation’s adoption of the Import Certificate policy:

Jrkliny, I also believe that USA manufacturing industries are likely to be the greatest beneficiaries of USA’s adopting this Import Certificate proposal. But unlike you I do not share your confidence that we can predict the future. The best we can do is consider the logical consequences of what we do know or what we speculate after more or less careful analysis; (and all that is based on the assumption that the facts we’ve introduced into our considerations are themselves correct).

Certainly if the USA adopts the Import Certificate policy, it is advantageous to the USA. Why else would I advocate we adopt it?
The Import Certificate policy does not discriminate between foreign nations and within all nations it does not discriminate between industries, or enterprises or products. (there are assessment adjustments excluding the estimated values of scarce or precious minerals integral to products being assessed).

Agricultural, ranching, processed foods, chemicals, medicines could emerge as the industry enjoying the greatest proportional benefit due to this trade proposal.
The markets will determine the winners.
All of the other questions you propose are inconsequential to the Import Certificate proposal. They are all determined by the markets. It is not at all certain that USA’s import volumes would be reduced even during the first year of the policy’s enactment. That would be very much dependent upon the manner with which enactment commences.

I don’t know if the Import Certificates’ global price rate would induce Calvin Kline to have their tee-shirts produced in the USA or if they will continue to be produced in Haiti; but I’m reasonably certain that USA purchasers will have to pay more for Calvin Kline Tee-shirts and for Rolls Royce automobiles. Interestingly the percentage of price increases for both products are likely to be similar because the same $200,000 face valued certificate that permits such a Rolls Royce shipment to enter the USA could have been used to bring a Calvin Kline shipment of clothes into the USA. But a certificate cannot be used twice. Certificates that are surrendered are then cancelled.

Last edited by toosie; 10-23-2016 at 03:34 AM.. Reason: Deleted signature
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Old 10-17-2016, 12:21 AM
 
1,029 posts, read 560,388 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
... In addition to the huge complexity, this "certificate" program is designed to function as a tax to discourage imports. Why do just impose a tax? Why not just impose selective embargos? There are plenty of isolationist and antitrade policies that would be more effective and cheaper.


I still fail to understand any advantage to building a US economy based on low skilled manufacturing. Take a look at the huge factories that China has built. No one wants to see those factories in their neighborhood. Why do we want to return to jobs of boredom, monotony and little or no opportunity for advancement? Where are we going to get the power to operate heavy manufacturing? Do we want to build more coal fired plants and choke on the smog or perhaps start building big nuclear generators? NIMBY is alive and well. It is all but impossible to build any sort of plants in the US. I worked for a company that built a small 100k square foot facility. We were desperate to expand but it still took 4 years to gain the local approvals and then it took another 2 years to construct the shell of the building. Before you even think of bringing manufacturing back to the US, you might take a took at what the Chinese have built. They have a great many huge factory complexes employing tens of thousands of workers in addition to using highly automated and robotic equipment. It has taken them decades to built those factories and the supporting infrastructure.
Jrkliny, your post only considers manufacturing production but The Import Certificate proposal is applicable to any goods. (it does exclude the values of scarce or precious minerals integral to those goods).

The markets will determine what will be imported and exported, what quantities and when those imports and exports will be shipped, from where those imports will come and to where those exports will go. The import Certificate policy is substantially more market and less government driven.

Your post refers to manufacturing as a homogenous family of industries.

I remember when clothing subcontractors created a factory within filthy storefronts. Don’t knock it. Those sewing machine operators are paid a much higher rate than McDonald clerks. There are many people near my home that would be pleased if such jobs were available to them.

Some high-tech manufacturing is conducted in environments no less than the sterility demanded of hospital’s surgery rooms. The cleanliness of our kitchens do not meet those manufacturers standards. Every manufacturing facilitate is not a steel mill or a locomotive producer.

USA’s adoption of the Import Certificate policy could reduce or it could increase USA’s imports or its exports but it will not eliminate foreign trade.

Import certificate policy will certainly entirely or almost entirely eliminate USA’s annual trade deficits of goods. It will increase USA’s gross domestic product more than otherwise; (otherwise being if this policy is not enacted). While boosting the nation’s GDP it will also be boosting the nation’s numbers of jobs. This is because the manner of trade deficits detriment to the nation’s GDP is also particularly detrimental to the nation’s numbers of jobs.

Last edited by toosie; 10-23-2016 at 03:35 AM.. Reason: Deleted signature
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Old 10-18-2016, 12:31 PM
 
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The OP unfortunately has never understood the material presented to him in Economics (and perhaps History) class.
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Old 10-18-2016, 01:55 PM
 
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Does anyone actually think that the 6 million cargo containers that enter the US per year are actually inspected? Only about 2% are actually opened by US Customs. Even those are not unpacked and examined in detail. The 2% means that the seals were broken and the doors opened.
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Old 10-18-2016, 03:01 PM
 
1,029 posts, read 560,388 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jrkliny View Post
Does anyone actually think that the 6 million cargo containers that enter the US per year are actually inspected? Only about 2% are actually opened by US Customs. Even those are not unpacked and examined in detail. The 2% means that the seals were broken and the doors opened.
Jrkliny, youíve introduced this problem in a previous post and I responded to it at 11;17 pm, 16OCT2016. Respectfully, Supposn

Excerpted from the 11;17 pm, 16OCT2016 post:
Jrkliny, I would suppose U.S. Department of Home Security does not devote greater consideration for our nationís economy and lesser consideration for our nationís physical security. If you believe that the facilities at the disposal for the department to security screen all shipments entering the USA are adequate to that purpose, then they must certainly be adequate for the assessments of those same shipments.

On the other hand, if you just as I suspect that our security is compromised because the federal government has thus far been reluctant to devote more funds for enlarging those facilities and increasing the manpower actually examining a greater proportion of shipments and a greater proportion of individual boxes or other containers within those shipments, then the Import Certificate policy is providing an additional funding for greater screening of shipments entering the USA.
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Old 10-20-2016, 07:53 PM
 
Location: World
3,148 posts, read 3,211,683 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldtrader View Post
The whole idea this thread is about if implemented with have other countries retaliating, and we would lose much of our 2 trillion, 300 billion dollar export market, that supplies 6,800,000 jobs in this country.

The move to $15 minimum wage rate so many are demanding, and some places putting into the law, will do one thing. It will force companies to automate, and do away with workers.

Lets take an example of how fast food hamburger restaurants are already starting to put in computer order stations with pictures if you cannot read, and the machines take orders, and the money. They are starting to install a automatic hamburger machine, that does everything from taking meat from a hopper, forming the patty, cooking it, and adding the extras, ending putting it in a box. These moves are going to put the majority of the people in that restaurant out of a job.

What are the salaries of Top Management in that Restaurant Chain? In Millions of Dollars !!! And every year it goes on increasing while blaming Minimum wage workers for the losses.
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