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Old 02-21-2008, 09:44 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
897 posts, read 2,457,689 times
Reputation: 188

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid View Post
That has nothing to do with whether China is a communist state or not. Communism is an economic theory not a political one, China is not a democracy there is no question about that. But its also not a communist state anywhere, its capitalist.


That isn't a facet of communism...that is a facet of a draconian oligarchic government. The two are not the same.


The joke is on them, they are bringing America to China. Governments are temporary its the ideas that matter. China is become more and more like America (or Anglo-Saxon) every day. Long live Rome = )


These guys are the David Lereah of the emerging market bubbles. There arguments are weak or non-existent. Regardless, China is not going to be able to quickly change their consumers this takes time and the current state of affairs is problematic. A savings rate that is too high is just as negative as one that is too low. Anyhow, the decoupling ideas are...err "cute". The folks involved in bubbles always try to justify the bubble by suggesting that "things are different now".
For 2007 Stock Market Returns, 64 Countries Out-ranked the U.S.!
Rank Country % Return
1 China 179.8
2 Ukraine 135.4
3 Slovenia 96.9
4 Nigeria 90.9
5 Botswana 86.2
6 Croatia 80.8
7 Brazil 72.4
8 Turkey 71.9
9 Mauritius 70.0
10 India 65.2
11 Oman 61.9
12 Bulgaria 60.1
13 Egypt 56.3
14 Hong Kong 55.5
15 Serbia 55.0
16 United Arab Emirates 51.8
17 Indonesia 45.5
18 Peru 45.0
19 Philippines 44.3
20 Israel 43.7
21 Saudi Arabia 40.9
22 Malaysia 40.6
23 Pakistan 38.5
24 Cyprus 36.6
25 Jordan 36.3
26 Botswana 35.7
27 Germany 35.2
28 Qatar 34.3
29 Thailand 32.7
30 Kuwait 32.0
31 South Korea 31.4
32 Czech Republic 30.7
33 Norway 30.4
34 Greece 30.3
35 Portugal 28.5
36 Romania 27.7
37 Lebanon 26.8
38 Singapore 26.5
39 Ghana 25.6
40 Canada 25.1
41 Bahrain 24.6
42 Australia 24.1
43 Vietnam 23.6
44 Poland 23.6
45 Luxembourg 22.9
46 Slovakia 21.5
47 Chile 21.4
48 Russian Federation 19.2
49 Tunisia 19.0
50 South Africa 18.7
51 Spain 18.6
52 Denmark 16.2
53 Hungary 15.9
54 Lithuania 15.4
55 Netherlands 15.1
56 Namibia 14.5
57 Finland 14.3
58 Malta 12.0
59 France 12.0
60 Austria 11.8
61 Iceland 11.5
62 Mexico 10.8
63 Taiwan 9.3
64 New Zealand 8.5
65 United States 6.4
Bloomberg Market is source.
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Old 02-21-2008, 09:54 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
897 posts, read 2,457,689 times
Reputation: 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by nitroae23 View Post
Skewed government data does not properly reflect current savings rate,if 401(k),403(b) and SEP IRA's were counted toward the savings rate it would be more along the 6% line,even higher than historic norms.Would you rather put money away pre tax,or after?Just another gov't stat that hasn't been updated since the age of the dinosaur!
okay, but about 34% of people tapped into their 401k to pay everyday bills last year.

"While household income in the U.S. has been rising only about 1.1% per year, it’s rising four times faster in Australia, Mexico and Brazil ... five times faster in Cambodia ... six times faster in Thailand ... seven times faster in India ... nearly eight times faster in Vietnam ... and a whopping 11 times faster in China! " - Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D

The US earnings last year actually was -1.2%
Workers see inflation-adjusted earnings fall 1.2% for year - USATODAY.com
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Old 02-21-2008, 09:55 PM
 
Location: Austin TX
1,590 posts, read 4,575,557 times
Reputation: 458
Quote:
Originally Posted by shibainu View Post
China will be the largest super power and they will beat America with out firing a shot. They will do this by destroying the American Financial institutions and they did this all by using American Greed.
Chinese domestic wage preasures will cause inflation and their products will be less competitive and with the service Chinese companies provide their customers they surely will screw themselves before they manage to screw us totally No one is more greedy than a Communist government employee can you say....we'll get even again?
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Old 02-21-2008, 10:31 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 4,155,071 times
Reputation: 592
Quote:
For 2007 Stock Market Returns, 64 Countries Out-ranked the U.S.!
What is your point exactly? All you are showing is that there is indeed a bubble in emerging markets. What justified those increases?
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Old 02-21-2008, 10:58 PM
 
1,552 posts, read 3,168,297 times
Reputation: 1268
Quote:
Originally Posted by nitroae23 View Post
Skewed government data does not properly reflect current savings rate,if 401(k),403(b) and SEP IRA's were counted toward the savings rate it would be more along the 6% line,even higher than historic norms.Would you rather put money away pre tax,or after?Just another gov't stat that hasn't been updated since the age of the dinosaur!
i still dont think it would be that high
most people arent outting 6% into there 401k
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Old 02-22-2008, 12:04 AM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
897 posts, read 2,457,689 times
Reputation: 188
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid View Post
What is your point exactly? All you are showing is that there is indeed a bubble in emerging markets. What justified those increases?
Where is your data that shows it is a bubble. I was just showing you that people are interested in other countries than the US.
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Old 02-22-2008, 01:17 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles Area
3,306 posts, read 4,155,071 times
Reputation: 592
Quote:
Where is your data that shows it is a bubble.
I ask again what justified the increases? When a market goes up more than 20% in a year its a pretty good indicator there is a bubble. But the issue is that emerging markets in general are completely detached from any fundamental, much like current home prices being detached from fundamentals (in the case of housing, local incomes, local rents etc).
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Old 02-22-2008, 04:25 AM
 
630 posts, read 1,874,394 times
Reputation: 368
Quote:
Originally Posted by shibainu View Post
Where is your data that shows it is a bubble. I was just showing you that people are interested in other countries than the US.
Best data to show there is a bubble is in the price/earnings ratios of various stock markets,almost every "emerging market" index is about 150-250% ABOVE their historic norms,we in the U.S. are well within our historic range (12-18),however,with slowing growth,and rising inflation,all markets will be adversly affected,some more than others.
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Old 02-22-2008, 05:44 AM
 
Location: Atlanta
281 posts, read 1,054,774 times
Reputation: 206
Quote:
Originally Posted by shibainu View Post
Awesome question. The democrats are typically pro social issues. History has told us after every major war pull out the country goes in to a recession. What would happen if they pull out of Iraq? Will it make a recession turn to a depression? If so do they continue to stay in Iraq and then go after Iran? I do not see the Dem winning the election but to go back to your question the Democrats when in office the Middle class typically improves and the economy runs better than under republicans. If the democrats take away the bush tax cuts it will improve the national debt which in turn makes the dollar stronger. We need to work on social issue because in the past 12-15 years America has not focused on pro-middle class growth especially in wage growth. If we grow the middle class consumerism will work.

Good points! I looked these up and historically you are correct. I am now in a split. I am sorry if this deviates the post. Do we penalize the families and individuals that have worked for generations to be middle class or above by higher taxes when some lower income have not anything to improve their income by free enterprise philosophy? Granted some are sequestered in lower income status by social program neglect.

Here is the point I swear.... Is there an economic principle or theory to spread wealth while not over burdening those that "have busted tail"?
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Old 02-22-2008, 06:55 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,059 posts, read 12,970,206 times
Reputation: 1401
Quote:
Originally Posted by Humanoid View Post
That has nothing to do with whether China is a communist state or not. Communism is an economic theory not a political one, China is not a democracy there is no question about that. But its also not a communist state anywhere, its capitalist.


That isn't a facet of communism...that is a facet of a draconian oligarchic government. The two are not the same.


The joke is on them, they are bringing America to China. Governments are temporary its the ideas that matter. China is become more and more like America (or Anglo-Saxon) every day. Long live Rome = )


These guys are the David Lereah of the emerging market bubbles. There arguments are weak or non-existent. Regardless, China is not going to be able to quickly change their consumers this takes time and the current state of affairs is problematic. A savings rate that is too high is just as negative as one that is too low. Anyhow, the decoupling ideas are...err "cute". The folks involved in bubbles always try to justify the bubble by suggesting that "things are different now".
Interesting that the idea of de-coupling being "cute"...and it seems as globalists are the ones thinking "it's different now". That if China were to de-couple, they would also be devastated along with America who'd no longer get a cheap influx of imports. On a very short term, probably. Mid to long term, it'll benefit them.

Jim Rogers seems to think enough of this theory to invest huge amounts of money in China and Asia in general. Since he's never really been wrong in such a way to lose considerable amounts of money, I would venture to say he's correct this time around. Peter Schiff tripled his earnings in only 7 years. If you search for Peter on YT, you'll find that he receives consistent 5 star ratings and he has a following unprecedented among Wall St. types. But, maybe you're right. Maybe after Peter was right about the dot com bust, subprime crisis, commodity prices increasing, gold increasing, oil going to 100 a barrel and now the start of credit cards reducing limits among certain customers, maybe he's wrong this time.

Even Warren Buffet bets against the US consumer. He's only really interested in manufacturing and exports, the niche industries that alone will not save the US's economy overall since we've hollowed out much of it.

The yuan would increase in value if China were to remove the peg. Their citizens' saved currency would EXPLODE in purchasing power. The Chinese are finally waking up and starting to remove their dollar portfolios, causing 10-year yields to spike upwards 50 basis points. This is just the beginning.

The bond market is the last bubble to burst before the legs of the housing market and stock market are truly knocked away. Imagine the asset deflation of a home when 30-years are 15-20%. We're going to have massive consumer prices (food, energy) increases, monetary devaluation from excessing printing, and deflation in asset prices (car, boat, house).

For those who continue to think it's cute, I can only suggest the following two ideas:
1) Remove American flag from face
2) Stop listening to CNBC pundits as if what they say is correct
3) Realize that 70% of GDP in consumerism and having the bulk of services non-exportable is not sustainable and a recipe for disaster

Look, it's not that I like trashing the dollar or America. I am looking forward to the time after the economic collapse when we will return to our roots as a nation of savers and producers. That time will happen again...you can BANK on it . Until then, I will continue to propser in foreign markets.
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