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Old 09-07-2016, 06:08 AM
 
4,713 posts, read 2,251,841 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
It will be interesting to watch what will happen to you in the next three years. Please come back and post your update in 2019.
Let me guess... if you're wrong you'll do like all the other "doomsday is coming" types and disappear into the woodwork. Make a new account later, come back saying it's all going to hell soon. Repeat.

Your spiel is nothing new.

Where the heck are all those people who were predicting second crash in 2013, hyperinflation because of Fed, $500/barrel peak oil, etc. they all tend to fade away.
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Old 09-07-2016, 08:13 AM
 
Location: Annandale, VA
9,447 posts, read 7,593,764 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
If they raise rates full blown deflation and depression will follow, the tsunami comes more quickly. It may bring down the entire system with it. So what? We created this mess and this zombie economy, we lied and cheated, we deluded ourselves that we can avoid pain, that all those monetary tricks and artificial low interest rates can work. We are 16 years late raising interest rates.

Our only medicine is higher interest rates and massive defaults and bankruptcies. That is the only way out of this mess that we have created for ourselves. Only way that can bring normal and organic economic growth one day, nothing else will work and can't work.

I know, most of you live in denial and can't accept this fact. What is next, should we try QE4 after QE1, QE2, Q3 didn't work. Should we try NIRP after ZIRP didn't work? How long our insanity will last.......until we self destroy ourselves and our country?

No easy and painless way out of our mess. The Fed has been staling since 2001, staling and lying for 16 years, stealing our public money, taxpayer money and plundering our country leaving us with massive debts. How long are we going to live in denial??????????

A lot of pain may mean revolution and civil war in America. It does not just mean a high unemployment rate. We are going to pay a huge price, all of us will, for this debt orgy and insanity since 2001.


I want interest rates raised. Banks should be paying me for the right to loan out my deposits at a reasonable rate of return.
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Old 09-07-2016, 08:52 AM
 
64,530 posts, read 66,075,955 times
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no one says you have to give it to the banks . you could have gotten 17% since January loaning it to the federal gov't and just selling it today by buying a long term treasury bond instead
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Old 09-07-2016, 08:55 AM
 
8,277 posts, read 3,452,461 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kevinm View Post
I want interest rates raised. Banks should be paying me for the right to loan out my deposits at a reasonable rate of return.
You want a decent return for saving your money in a bank, which sounds very sensible. But with our modern money system the bank does not need your money to make loans. And with a weak economy right now policy needs to be more toward encouraging consumer spending, a large part of our GDP.

We could have policy to allow higher interest for the less than rich, or encourage saving this way. China has done this when they wanted to encourage personal savings. It would have to be from central mandate and control. It would not make sense for banks to increase passbook rates without increasing lending interest rates.

The reason your money is not needed for banks to loan is because of Fed QE policy, where now banks are stuck with huge excess of reserves. Reserves they get paid to store. The reality today is that loans create deposits. This is inverse of conventional thought.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...land-austerity
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Old 09-07-2016, 12:33 PM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
8,959 posts, read 3,114,068 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
no one says you have to give it to the banks . you could have gotten 17% since January loaning it to the federal gov't and just selling it today by buying a long term treasury bond instead

OPPORTUNITY COST.


People you need to learn to think outside the box.
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Old 09-08-2016, 07:58 PM
 
15,847 posts, read 8,428,912 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leastprime View Post
I'd would raise taxes instead.
Everytime taxes got cut, we just reinvested in equities.

2001: recovery from DotCom/Tech crash. Taxes cut.
2002: Bush43 decide to go into Afghanistan to seek out BinLaden. Taxes cut again. Stock market falling. Interest rate falling faster.
2003: Interest rate continue falling. We borrow 90% of cost-of-attendance to private college for son. Use the 4% EE bonds to pay interest on student loans at 3%. First signs of NoJob-NoDoc-NoDown mortgages. Bush43 starts Iraq war. Stocks recover +10% and we are paying 0 taxes.
2004-06. Salad days of Interest rates. Student loans get down to 1%. We are still paying no taxes. While Wars are costing 7 Billions/week.
etc
YMMV
"We" were paying no taxes in 2003? Speak for yourself!

It went down, but not dramatically compared to previous years and many still paid in quite a bit.

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Old 06-18-2018, 09:19 PM
 
4,713 posts, read 2,251,841 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by C2BP View Post
We should have begun slowly raising rates in 2001, limiting debt after the business cycle ended. High interest rates do many good things for a society. We fear high interest rates because we think our economy needs to grow all the time, to avoid pain -- and we know that growth and high interest rates can't go together. This is true. But growth is always periodical. We must plan for this reality, not for the fantasy of perennial growth, which makes the interest rate cycle a potential monster instead of the savior that it is. Yes, the perpetual growth model is a fallacy, a fantasy. Time to wake up.

We have been on (the monetary equivalent of) morphine since 2001. We are mostly addicts. Our entire way of life is wrapped up in the morphiine lie being protected by the FED-mafia -- they are protecting us and themselves -- if the wall of water hits, our lives unwind, but so do the lives of many of those at the top also. How much pain can we endure; and how much chaos can they endure? If the tsunami hits, the FED is out.

If the FED continues to walk the path they are walking, we go into negative interest rates, and then all hell breaks loose and we are drowned in a tide of defaults and debt destruction. If the FED raises interest rates now, then the tsunami comes more quickly. I see no way out of this tsunami. 2001 was the time to confront the end of expansion -- and we lied to ourselves, and cheated, and tricked, and usurped, and deviled, and devaluated and que'd and zirp'ed and did whatever we could to (steal) borrow money from the future so we could continue to lie to ourselves and avoid the TRUTH which is quite simply: in a boom and bust economy you have to have the courage to take the bust (the DEFLATION) if you want to have the joy of the boom (the iNFLATION). Inflation is not a statistic of monetary abberation. INFLATION is the Boom Cycle, the Business Cycle, whether it is drive by salary and price inflation (which shows up in the CPI) or by DEBT growth (which does not show up in the CPI). The economy INFLATED from 1983-2001. It was supposed to start DEFLATING from 2001 (getting rid of our debt so we could inflate again) -- but we tricked it. But now look at us. We're not looking so good, with all our tricks. We have egg on our faces. And we have a LOT MORE DEBT now than we did in 2001, when we were supposed to start emptying out.
Helicopter drops won't work. Nothing will work except a massive deflation that will threaten our very existence, as it did 1929-1947. We have to impode out (global) debt bubble. That is the only thing that will fix the problem. But, it will create new problems, won't it?

The lesson: don't trick yourself as a nation, as a globe. If it sounds too good (debt is not a problem, debt is good, there is no such thing as too much debt), then it is too good. Don't lie to yourself unless you want the devil to appear and take everything away from you.
Sorry. It's long and dark. But I do think that more and more Americans are starting to realize how much trouble we are in.
Some original thoughts here, let's take another look.
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