U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 09-28-2016, 08:15 AM
 
32,778 posts, read 22,716,611 times
Reputation: 29799

Advertisements

Baltic Dry and Harpex
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 10-01-2016, 10:41 AM
 
7,019 posts, read 6,646,258 times
Reputation: 5294
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/artic...es-the-economy
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-01-2016, 01:41 PM
 
4,229 posts, read 1,909,438 times
Reputation: 3787
Just off the top here, heavy truck sales would appear to be a coincident or lagging indicator. And the summer prior to a Presidential election -- particularly one in which a new President is guaranteed -- are apt to be characterized by states of wait-and-see caution and cutbacks.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-01-2016, 02:27 PM
 
2,621 posts, read 2,030,729 times
Reputation: 4776
Freight costs/trucking has been going down for awhile, it is no surprise they arent buying as many trucks now. The funny thing is the mega carriers will still be screaming at the top of their lungs how there is a shortage of drivers. Only shortage is a shortage of new drivers they can pay low wages to while the mega carriers burn and churn through them to keep driver costs down.

It is a leading indicator though so it will be interesting to see what happens over the next year with the economy.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-03-2016, 07:35 AM
 
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, originally from SF Bay Area
28,444 posts, read 50,681,531 times
Reputation: 28731
Quote:
Originally Posted by High Altitude View Post
Freight costs/trucking has been going down for awhile, it is no surprise they arent buying as many trucks now. The funny thing is the mega carriers will still be screaming at the top of their lungs how there is a shortage of drivers. Only shortage is a shortage of new drivers they can pay low wages to while the mega carriers burn and churn through them to keep driver costs down.

It is a leading indicator though so it will be interesting to see what happens over the next year with the economy.
This seems to have been more than offset by the increase in trucking demand in Europe, where PACCAR (Kenworth, Peterbuilt) projects sales of 280,000-300,000 vehicles this year, which is the strongest market since 2008. Their overall revenues in 2015 set a record, some of that helped by west coast port clean air requirements. That naturally means fewer sales in 2016.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-24-2017, 11:57 PM
 
4,765 posts, read 2,268,925 times
Reputation: 8864
Quote:
Originally Posted by timberline742 View Post
Baltic Dry and Harpex
So whatever happened to this Baltic Dry measure? There was some ZeroHedge article about the woeful state of Baltic Dry, and suddenly everyone who wanted to point out how terrible the economy was would ignore things like consumer spending and employment to focus on Baltic Dry. It was quite the darling of the ZeroHedge-is-gospel crowd, a critical economic measure MY GOD MAN BALTIC DRY IS LOWEST IT HAS BEEN IN YEARS, MUST BE RECESSION!

Well here we are with BDIY over 500% higher than when it had some people buying canned goods and ammo, do those same people now think the economy is doing great or do they now disavow this index as some silly thing that doesn't measure the health of the economy? Genuinely curious how this is rationalized.

Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-27-2017, 05:02 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
5,609 posts, read 1,671,838 times
Reputation: 4776
BDI is a horrible indicator and has been for quite a while.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-28-2017, 07:39 AM
 
Location: Fairfax County, VA
1,387 posts, read 602,948 times
Reputation: 2723
You're saying that Zero Hedge screwed something up? That's like saying that ShadowStats is a bunch of bunk!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2017, 03:35 PM
 
155 posts, read 87,575 times
Reputation: 163
Credit contraction (which we are already seeing), high levels of indebtedness/delinquency (steadily rising as well), high levels of U6 unemployment (never recovered from the recession). We have been and still are in an economic slowdown since 2007, which has recovered wonderfully for 1% of the population that have assets like stocks and real estate, but not for anyone else.

More a matter of perspective than anything else. If you read the mainstream news you'd think we were doing great, if you ask the average American or looked at any real economic data you'd see the obvious.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-30-2017, 11:54 PM
 
4,765 posts, read 2,268,925 times
Reputation: 8864
Quote:
Originally Posted by weiwuwei View Post
Credit contraction (which we are already seeing), high levels of indebtedness/delinquency (steadily rising as well), high levels of U6 unemployment (never recovered from the recession).
Wait, what? Here is U-6 employment, how does anyone look at that and say U-6 levels are either high or not recovered from the recession.



Here is delinquency rates for credit cards, rising for sure but how do you describe something as "high" when it is clearly low compared to other times over the last 25 years including prerecession?




Quote:
Originally Posted by weiwuwei View Post
More a matter of perspective than anything else. If you read the mainstream news you'd think we were doing great, if you ask the average American or looked at any real economic data you'd see the obvious.
What obvious "real" economic data? The ones you describe in such a slanted (or outright incorrect) manner or other measures such as unemployment rate, consumer spending, corporate profits, etc. which measure are you looking at here?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Economics
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2018, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top