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Old 12-31-2017, 05:46 AM
 
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Cars now last 200,000 miles and most new car buyers keep their cars for 7+ years. This isn’t 1980 where people trade poorly made cars as soon as they went off their 3/36 warranty.
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Old 12-31-2017, 09:49 AM
 
4,780 posts, read 2,276,288 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
Cars now last 200,000 miles and most new car buyers keep their cars for 7+ years. This isn’t 1980 where people trade poorly made cars as soon as they went off their 3/36 warranty.
Also remember the days of oil changes every 3,000 and regular tuneups? Economy cars have air bags, ABS, power steering, power breaks, digital entertainment systems, rear cameras, collision/lane warnings, etc. all kinds of features that were the stuff of top end models back in 1980.

Same with houses, makes no sense home today versus 1980 as if is same thing.
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Old 12-31-2017, 10:55 AM
 
155 posts, read 87,697 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
Wait, what? Here is U-6 employment, how does anyone look at that and say U-6 levels are either high or not recovered from the recession.
True, if you consider 8% unemployment to be low. It has recovered from the peak of the 2008 crisis though yes. A better indicator I find is the employment to population ratio, which includes the people who have just given up entirely on working, numbers which could "magically" come back into the workforce if we had say, a New Deal-esque jobs program.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employ...pulation_ratio

Also a helpful article showing how the drop in labor participation rate since the crash is not all because of the boomers.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2016/ar...e-the-peak.htm

More importantly, the jobs that people ARE accepting are increasingly lower and lower wage jobs than what they had previously, such as service sector jobs.


Quote:
Here is delinquency rates for credit cards, rising for sure but how do you describe something as "high" when it is clearly low compared to other times over the last 25 years including prerecession?
There were historic levels of bankruptcies following the crash, bringing delinquency rates down to where they are now, and starting to rise again.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...008-2017-04-03

People are clearly stretched to the limit. When that happens, the bubble bursts and the economy crashes.

Quote:
What obvious "real" economic data? The ones you describe in such a slanted (or outright incorrect) manner or other measures such as unemployment rate, consumer spending, corporate profits, etc. which measure are you looking at here?
All of the ones you mention? Corporate profits are largely fictitious (as well as the stock market in general) as companies are not investing their money into their companies, but simply doing share repurchases (sometimes debt-financed) to continually raise their companies share price. Consumer spending again is pushed to the limit as people have borrowed as much as they possibly can to try and keep up with drops or stagnant wages, or just giving up on the economy/workforce entirely.

Important graphic here:

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...612_bubble.jpg

Infographic: The Everything Bubble Is Ready to Pop | Mauldin Economics

This is one big fantasy world the mainstream media feeds us, and it gets very ugly when you start looking behind the curtain.

Last edited by weiwuwei; 12-31-2017 at 11:06 AM..
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Old 12-31-2017, 10:59 AM
 
Location: Boston
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I'm doing great, most people that aren't, will never be doing great. Some people you can't help so I don't try.
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Old 12-31-2017, 11:14 AM
 
155 posts, read 87,697 times
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Originally Posted by skeddy View Post
I'm doing great, most people that aren't, will never be doing great. Some people you can't help so I don't try.
Except that they could easily be doing so much better if we didn't have a political and economic system designed to ignore them at best, and outright exploit them at worst. I love the old bs trope "if they just worked harder or were better at being born to rich people then they would be fine!"

Good god you are blind.
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Old 12-31-2017, 11:33 AM
 
Location: Boston
5,097 posts, read 1,465,728 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weiwuwei View Post
Except that they could easily be doing so much better if we didn't have a political and economic system designed to ignore them at best, and outright exploit them at worst. I love the old bs trope "if they just worked harder or were better at being born to rich people then they would be fine!"

Good god you are blind.

you can blame the system if you want, lazy people seldom get ahead and are full of excuses ....enjoy!
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Old 12-31-2017, 02:59 PM
 
155 posts, read 87,697 times
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Originally Posted by skeddy View Post
you can blame the system if you want, lazy people seldom get ahead and are full of excuses ....enjoy!
So thats it? Thats the extent of your economic analysis? People that are not successful financially or are not able to make ends meet - its because they are all lazy - no matter the circumstances?
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Old 12-31-2017, 07:17 PM
 
11,386 posts, read 5,880,809 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weiwuwei View Post
So thats it? Thats the extent of your economic analysis? People that are not successful financially or are not able to make ends meet - its because they are all lazy - no matter the circumstances?
Lousy parents is probably 80% of the cause and bad luck in the genetic lottery is the other 20%, not lazy.
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Old 12-31-2017, 09:39 PM
 
4,780 posts, read 2,276,288 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weiwuwei View Post
True, if you consider 8% unemployment to be low. It has recovered from the peak of the 2008 crisis though yes. A better indicator I find is the employment to population ratio, which includes the people who have just given up entirely on working, numbers which could "magically" come back into the workforce if we had say, a New Deal-esque jobs program.
Why wouldn't I consider 8% low, it's on the low end of historical values for U-6 since it was first measured, through boom and bust cycles of the economy and employment. Calling it anything but low means you have some unreachable arbitrary standard for unemployment that has never been met.

Quote:
Originally Posted by weiwuwei View Post
More importantly, the jobs that people ARE accepting are increasingly lower and lower wage jobs than what they had previously, such as service sector jobs.
Median weekly ages are at historical highs right along with the low unemployment numbers, how do you reconcile that with your claim that more people are accepting lower and lower wage jobs?



Quote:
Originally Posted by weiwuwei View Post
There were historic levels of bankruptcies following the crash, bringing delinquency rates down to where they are now, and starting to rise again.
Again you're taking something that is at a very healthy level and trying to spin it as something negative.

Here are defaults: https://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...f/delallsa.htm

For all consumer loans in Q3 2017 the default rate was 2.27, way lower than historical norms. Despite the slow trend upward they are still at very good levels.



Quote:
Originally Posted by weiwuwei View Post
Important graphic here:

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...612_bubble.jpg

Infographic: The Everything Bubble Is Ready to Pop | Mauldin Economics

This is one big fantasy world the mainstream media feeds us, and it gets very ugly when you start looking behind the curtain.
ANd here is my answer, you are a ZeroHedger. Therefore all economic indicators that show the economy is doing just fine must be ignored so that logical hoops can be jumped through to see it as bad, complete with the usual reference to the mainstream media. Hey your source ZeroHedge was the reason I restarted this thread, they were the ones who started the "Baltic Dry" craze a couple years back.

Why didn't Baltic Dry correctly show impending calamity like all the ZeroHedgers on here were claiming? It went down, it came back up?

If you're so interested in truth, why did you lie about U-6 never having recovered from the recession when it clearly has? By purposely misstating that aren't you engaging in exactly what you claim to despise from the evil mainstream media?
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Old 01-01-2018, 07:20 AM
 
11,386 posts, read 5,880,809 times
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Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
ANd here is my answer, you are a ZeroHedger.
I find froooot looop conspiracy theory types very amusing. At least somebody who posts ZeroHedge links is fully uncloaked.
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