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Old 10-16-2016, 06:21 PM
 
9,098 posts, read 3,711,228 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perma Bear View Post
It's not sustainable by the median income, or even the average income. When a region fails to rely on internal economic conditions it no longer is attached to reality.
and yet... it is reality

sorry, I just don't get your point, it is what it is. You can claim it isn't real, but your rent payment says other wise

If the "bubble" does crash, the people with your "median" income, would be jobless as well. So they won't even be able to take advantage of the lower prices.

That's what I don't get about people who think a crash helps middle income people. They get hurt by it more than the rich. Someone can survive on $1 million as easily as they could on $2 million. A middle class family earning $100k would have a harder time surviving on $50k if one spouse lost a job. If both lost a job, it would be $30k for a while until unemployment ran out. Then they are on $0 or savings. <--- this was the reality of 2009.

Even the poor made out better in the crash, they had nothing to lose so their QoL didn't change much either.
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Old 10-16-2016, 06:34 PM
 
4,310 posts, read 2,450,421 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MLSFan View Post
and yet... it is reality

sorry, I just don't get your point, it is what it is. You can claim it isn't real, but your rent payment says other wise

If the "bubble" does crash, the people with your "median" income, would be jobless as well. So they won't even be able to take advantage of the lower prices.

That's what I don't get about people who think a crash helps middle income people. They get hurt by it more than the rich. Someone can survive on $1 million as easily as they could on $2 million. A middle class family earning $100k would have a harder time surviving on $50k if one spouse lost a job. If both lost a job, it would be $30k for a while until unemployment ran out. Then they are on $0 or savings. <--- this was the reality of 2009.

Even the poor made out better in the crash, they had nothing to lose so their QoL didn't change much either.
Only fools who work for the private sector worry about crashes.
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Old 10-16-2016, 08:14 PM
 
3,183 posts, read 2,813,235 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perma Bear View Post
It's not sustainable by the median income, or even the average income. When a region fails to rely on internal economic conditions it no longer is attached to reality.
Ah, but SF has restricted building and heavy rent control, so there's relatively little housing actually on the market at any given time that is available, so prices don't have to be sustained by average income of everyone, simply by the average income of someone moving into or around the metro. Which isn't to say that there isn't a bubble - there probably is - but in places like SF/NYC median or mean income of residents is irrelevant, except insofar as it is correlated with the income of people currently seeking housing, including only the top X section of that group, where X = the available housing.
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Old 10-16-2016, 08:15 PM
 
4,310 posts, read 2,450,421 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ALackOfCreativity View Post
Ah, but SF has restricted building and heavy rent control, so there's relatively little housing actually on the market at any given time that is available, so prices don't have to be sustained by median income, simply by the average income of someone moving into or around the metro. Which isn't to say that there isn't a bubble - there probably is - but in places like SF/NYC median income of residents is irrelevant, except insofar as it is correlated with the median income of people currently seeking housing, including only the top X section of that group, where X = the available housing.
It's pathetic, they could easily develop the Santa Cruz Mountains and the miles/acres around 280. The East Bay hills and San Bruno Mountain are also perfect candidates for development.
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Old 10-16-2016, 08:21 PM
 
3,183 posts, read 2,813,235 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perma Bear View Post
It's pathetic, they could easily develop the Santa Cruz Mountains and the miles/acres around 280. The East Bay hills and San Bruno Mountain are also perfect candidates for development.
Your knowledge of bay area geography is almost certainly better than mine so I'll take your word on it. Even better, you could simply build up in the center where people want to live these days. SF, Silicon Valley, and East Bay are all very low rise by east coast urban standards ... and yeah I get earthquakes are a thing but they clearly make the engineering work downtown.

Of course, there's zero reason for the bulk of incumbent residents to support it given they either own property or benefit from rent control so what can you do, sometimes democracy leads to bad outcomes.

edit: on second thought, beyond the small slice of free-market renters some older folks might support development so their kids can afford to live in the area. Still, there's a failure where the people who are priced out don't get a vote on development because they're priced out.
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Old 10-16-2016, 08:48 PM
 
Location: IN
20,170 posts, read 34,496,158 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Perma Bear View Post
It's pathetic, they could easily develop the Santa Cruz Mountains and the miles/acres around 280. The East Bay hills and San Bruno Mountain are also perfect candidates for development.
No they are conservation areas/parks with steep hillsides that would prohibit any type of dense development anyway.
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Old 10-16-2016, 09:09 PM
 
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Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
No they are conservation areas/parks with steep hillsides that would prohibit any type of dense development anyway.
The first part is true, the second is semi true. Some of it would be hard to build on it but plenty of it is buildable. Look at the San Mateo highlands for Christ sakes!
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Old 10-16-2016, 09:20 PM
 
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Maybe they could turn Alcatraz into a rent controlled low cost living space? The rooms are all built, nice and sturdy
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Old 10-16-2016, 09:26 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MLSFan View Post
Maybe they could turn Alcatraz into a rent controlled low cost living space? The rooms are all built, nice and sturdy
hipsters would probably pay 4000 a month per unit.
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Old 10-16-2016, 10:44 PM
 
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Income isn't the only thing that sustains housing, but wealth. Lots of people bring equity/cash with them and are able to buy and pay for homes that their income alone can't afford.
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