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It's already been a market recession for almost a year and half. Just look at the graphs. Flat S&P, Dow, & Nasdaq over that time. I don't think we ever got a real crash because of low interest rates and positive fundamental demographic & other factors helped counteract forces that might have caused a real crash. The worst damage has been done (Brexit, election, China fears, EU declines) and we weathered it. I actually think we are due for another rally and we are seeing the beginning of it.
I hope you are right, Shampoo. I'm stuck in the red on a couple of stocks, so I sure would like an opportunity to at least break even before a crash. Maybe I can get out of those particular stocks before then. I need the price of oil to go up. And time. (But I plan on hanging tight with my dividend stocks.)
I actually think we are due for another rally and we are seeing the beginning of it.
Never underestimate the power of Republicans to ruin an economy. There has not been an economically successful Republican administration in more than 100 years. Of course, past performance is not a predictor of future failure. It's just something to take into account.
Never underestimate the power of Republicans to ruin an economy. There has not been an economically successful Republican administration in more than 100 years. Of course, past performance is not a predictor of future failure. It's just something to take into account.
Well the Cubs won. So did a Cleveland team. Anything's possible
For our sake, I hope the past does not predict the future.
The issue isn't what happens to companies, or to their profits; the issue is what happens to perception. Or more precisely, the issue is what happens to the perception of others' perception, of others' perception, of others'... in infinite regression.
Sure, fundamentals (revenue and profit, book value, return on invested capital, etc.) eventually are reflected in stock prices. But how long is "eventually"? Worthy companies can see their stock prices crushed. Fluff-businesses, without a business plan (let alone a profit) can see their stock prices skyrocket.
It is perfectly rational to suppose, that fantastical and counter-factual rumor could crush the stock market; and that solid, reliable news would be ignored; or vice versa.
Exhibit A is the British stock market, the FTSE. Why is it trading at half of the P/E of the S&P 500? Is this a screaming buying opportunity? Maybe, but if so, why haven't investors already pounced on it? Maybe there's some opaque and subtle rationale for this. Maybe not. I have zero cognizance of it, and instead just accept it as an enigma. And with that attitude, we have no scheme by which to reckon, whether the US stock market should have zoomed or collapsed, or done nothing at all, on account of the election.
TL;DR: knowledge is useless.
If a company makes or provides a good product or service it should be able to stave off any political or economic climate short of Venezuela or October revolution.
Warren Buffet is a friend of Hillary so he is of course liberal. He is also well know for telling people how he makes his money. He takes people's stocks when they are low, and give them back when they are high. So why would he say things that would get people emotional?
If you have actually recently watched the markets, you can see that American production companies are up, while foreign production companies are down. This took a sharp curve after Trump was elected. If you know of Bill Clinton's tie to NAFTA, than you can project why this happened. If Trump cuts NAFTA and raises or institutes tariffs like he said, consumer goods companies' profits would decrease sharply. This is because many of their goods are made on the cheap in foreign countries. The outcry is that consumer goods would decrease sharply, that is not true. In fact I believe the contrary, since more people will have jobs. Therefore, no Armageddon, sorry. Warren Buffet was betting on Hilary to win. I also made that mistake and lost a little.
But why should company profits mean that much when dividends really arent the real value behind the stock, or main reason people buy the stock? Most people it seems buy stock thinking they can sell later to someone else at higher price.
I am sure cement companies like Cemex or Heidelberg stock have been going up since Trump has been elected.
CX has been going down. The wall construction would only be on the US side of the border. Almost all of the building construction stocks have been rising for months.
It remains to be seen whether 1 trillion dollars in infrastructure spending over 10 years is real growth. The federal government already spends at that rate. If it is growth, does it merely supplant state and local spending?
Whenever I hear "record levels" it makes me want to sell. 2007 had record levels. What goes up must come down.
We are already overdue for a recession. It would be a miracle if it didn't happen in the next 4 years. I doubt it will be as bad as 2008 was, but more like the 1991 recession.
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