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Old 12-04-2016, 07:05 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
The bottom line is that 13,881,835 fewer Americans are working now than in Year 2000.
137,322,000 = Number of people employed in November 2000
152,085,000 = Number of people employed in November 2016
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Old 12-04-2016, 08:55 AM
 
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pub-911 View Post
137,322,000 = Number of people employed in November 2000
152,085,000 = Number of people employed in November 2016
If the population was the same that would be great.


Total US Pop.
2000 - 282 mil
2016 - 319 mil


+ 15 mil jobs, + 37 mil people. Bad math.
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Old 12-04-2016, 09:01 AM
 
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unless those 15 million are youngin's and not part of the labor force .
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Old 12-04-2016, 11:16 AM
 
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Economy here has been fine since since early 2014 or so. I would say it's downright good at this point. I don't really hear about people I know being long unemployed anymore

It's all dependent on location and what type of work though.
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Old 12-04-2016, 12:58 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by censusdata View Post
If the population was the same that would be great.
Don't change horses in the middle of the stream. Of course, the old horse drowned, so maybe that's an excuse.

And for the zillionth time, LFPR is principally a demographic indicator that peaked as predicted in 2000 and will now be on a long-term decline extending at least into the mid-2020s.

Last edited by Pub-911; 12-04-2016 at 01:08 PM..
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Old 12-04-2016, 01:17 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bpollen View Post
178,000 jobs were added in November. More than since 2007, I read. Unemployment down to 4.6%.

Sweet. There's evidence that middle class wages are ticking upwards, too, but of course, not enough. The middle class income has not been keeping up with the rest of the economy for years. Still, good news is good news.
Except the underemployment rate is through the roof but hey who's counting
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Old 12-04-2016, 01:23 PM
 
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BLS is counting, but many people seem to pay little attention to the actual numbers, perhaps preferring wild and unfounded claims from wherever. .
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Old 12-04-2016, 01:45 PM
eok
 
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If you considered the 95 million who are "out of the labor force" to be unemployed, what would the real unemployment rate be?

It seems to me when someone retires early because they can't get a job, it's only a difference in semantics between being retired and being unemployed. It's not as if they were planning their retirement date for years. Just that they gave up looking for a job and that was their motive for retiring. But if someone suddenly offered them a good job, they would be likely to suddenly become available for employment again.
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Old 12-04-2016, 02:17 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eok View Post
If you considered the 95 million who are "out of the labor force" to be unemployed, what would the real unemployment rate be?
Employed people have a job. Unemployed people do not have a job, but they would like to work, are available to work, and have taken some positive step to find work within the past four weeks.

Just looking at my own situation, I don't have a job, but I don't meet any of the other three qualifications. Hence, I am not employed and I am not unemployed. I am just not part of the labor force at all.

Couldn't be happier about that, by the way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eok View Post
It seems to me when someone retires early because they can't get a job, it's only a difference in semantics between being retired and being unemployed. It's not as if they were planning their retirement date for years. Just that they gave up looking for a job and that was their motive for retiring. But if someone suddenly offered them a good job, they would be likely to suddenly become available for employment again.
Retiring means to leave a job that you had upon reaching some age or length-of-service minimums. You go to work one day and you voluntarily do not go back to work the next day.

Retiring does not mean that you don't have a job and have quit looking for one because you believe that no jobs are available, or at least none that you could actually qualify for. That's called being discouraged. It's a totally different thing.
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Old 12-04-2016, 02:39 PM
 
Location: Vallejo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
Correct.

Apologists claim the increased number of Americans dropping out of the labor force is due to Boomers retiring, but that data doesn't support the claim. In fact, just the opposite, Boomers are increasing their presence in the labor force.

LNU01300097 Labor Force Participation Rate 65+ Years

2000 12.9%
2001 13.0
2002 13.2
2003 14.0
2004 14.4
2005 15.0
2006 15.4
2007 16.0
2008 16.8
2009 17.2
2010 17.4
2011 17.9
2012 18.5
2013 18.7
2014 18.6
2015 18.9
2016 19.4

More Boomers are working longer.
Yeah, but...

65+ has gone from 9.7% in 2000 to 14.5% in 2014 (last year available, nobody expects it to be anything but higher today.) A 6% more ARE participating in the labor force after 65 but 65+ still has very low labor participation rates and is growing rapidly. The 6% increase in labor force participation does not offset much of the rapidly increasing percentage of the population that is 65+.
It's only going to continue. Boomers are now, 52-72ish. 65 isn't even full retirement age. It's much higher for 65-70 than that 19% and much lower than 19% for 75+. The increase is not an unexpected effect of the baby boom. Most of them are in that 65-70 group that work at higher rates than the general 65+ category. Yes, they're also working longer but there's also more of the 65+ that's in the 65-70 group that has always worked more than the 70-75 or 75+ groups.

Quote:
The same holds true for the 55-59 Years group which has increased from 69.3% in 2000 to 71.5% in 2016 and the 60-64 Year age group, increasing from 47.5% to 61.3% over the same time period.

No matter how you look at it, older people are staying in the work force longer.
Again, yes. The two work in opposites. People work longer and there's more older people who still work at lower rates than younger people. 50-59 and 60-64 (boomer boom) participation rate is lower than prime working years, 25-54. That boomers work longer partially offsets the fact that we have a lot of boomers who are now mostly past prime working years.

Quote:
Mostly the 16-24 year old and 25-54 year old crowds. We can see that here:

LNU01324887 Labor Force Participation Rate 16-24 Years

2000 65.8%
2001 64.5
2002 63.3
2003 61.6
2004 61.1
2005 60.8
2006 60.6
2007 59.4
2008 58.8
2009 56.9
2010 55.2
2011 55.0
2012 54.9
2013 55.1
2014 55.0
2015 55.0
2016 55.3

That's a 10 point decline. And then here:
Again, not entirely unexpected although problematic. More people are in school and there's also just an unavailability of unskilled jobs which most of the 16-24 group would normally be taking, especially the 16-22 group. That's the skill gap effect. If you look at fast food workers, they're much older now. Since there aren't as many unskilled jobs for older workers to matriculate to they stick around working fast food. Fast food and retail was probably most people's first job. I know it was for me. I started out dusting and stocking shelves.

Quote:
LNU01300060 Labor Force Participation Rate 25-54 Years

2000 84.0%
2001 83.7
2002 83.3
2003 83.0
2004 82.8
2005 82.8
2006 82.9
2007 83.0
2008 83.1
2009 82.6
2010 82.2
2011 81.6
2012 81.5
2013 81.0
2014 80.9
2015 80.9
2016 81.3

A 3 point decline
And the number of stay-at-home moms has increased by 6 points to 29% in 2012. Obviously not all of it but one of the effects. Some are marginally attached and might work if there were better opportunities. Others, like my sister, are completely out of the workforce and have no intention of working. I imagine she'll start thinking about re-entering the work force after about 8-9 years but really doesn't have any useful skills so probably will be more like 12-14 years. Honestly, I don't know though. She is kind of a flake. Unless having kids made her grow up she may never return to the workforce.
Quote:
The bottom line is that 13,881,835 fewer Americans are working now than in Year 2000.
And there's 11 million more (in 2014) who are 65+ than there were in 2000. Since 6% more are working, that's about 10.3 million.
Also, number is just wrong. There's about 17 million MORE people working as well, yeah, larger population.

Quote:
Add that to the 7+ Million that are unemployed, and the unemployed becomes 20+ Million, so you can see where some people might claim the real unemployment rate is ~12.5%
There are multiple measures of under utilization. U6 is under 10%, so no, not really.

Last edited by Malloric; 12-04-2016 at 02:54 PM..
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