Tariffs will bring back high paying manufacturer jobs? (refund, pension, buying)
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After the war, we were the only country that had industrial capacity to restore Europe, etc.
This situation did not last long, in part because of rapid reconstruction under such a the Marshall Plan.
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Originally Posted by oldtrader
Our factories hummed.
We went through five recessions between 1945 and 1960.
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Originally Posted by oldtrader
The problem today is that the production of goods has spread around the world...
So have incomes and markets. Production doesn't occur without someplace to sell the outputs. And the US continues to produce about 22% of everything that is produced anywhere in the world. We haven't exactly faded away here.
redguard57------That book you are quoting is not the whole story.
Factory workers back then, could afford to buy a home, I know as I took their credit reports and had them to review from the 50s to the early 70s. Average workers in that area were bringing in $350 to $500 a month. They could live quite well. I was selling furniture at the best middle class furniture store in the area on commission. My annual income was $125,000 up in today's dollars and was well above average. I was selling a lot of furniture, as the area was growing fast. Stevens Creek Road from the Macy's Shopping Center to Cupertino was a nice drive through orchards, as the old timers can tell you, when we moved there in 1956 from the North Western part of California where I was the third generation there.
We bought our first new home in 1956 and it cost $13,750 in the Heart of the Silicon Valley in Cupertino, GI bill, nothing down, and $77 per month payments including taxes and insurance. We were not the low cost area to buy new homes, and there were homes being built and sold new for under $10,000 in the 50s. Over the next 10 years we bought 3 homes as we moved up in Saragoga, and other west side locations, and none of them were over $22,000. Today homes that sold for $22,000 back then are are re-selling today for high six and low seven figures after all of these years according to listings in the Realtors books. Today the factory workers in those same positions cannot afford to buy homes in that area.
From end of WWII until the 70s, America had lots of manufacturing jobs. After the war, we were the only country that had industrial capacity to restore Europe, etc. Our factories hummed. We were the Europe, China and Japan of today and flooded the world with manufactured goods, and now no longer are the only country that can produce high volume of goods for the world. We had a lot of jobs back then for anyone that wanted to work. The problem today, is that the production of goods has spread around the world, and today we have to compete with goods from other countries which we did not have to do back then. We call this unfair, and those countries consider it getting even with us for flooding them with goods back then, and it took years to get them to the point they were no longer needing all the things we could produce.
Somehow I doubt the people you sold to were the entry or lower level workers. They were probably people who had moved up the ranks somewhat. Even if a house only cost $25,000, people would not be buying that on $2.00 an hour/$4000 a year.
But I agree that housing costs have gone insane even by a generous accounting of the differences between then and now.
US (and China) is in a very unique position than the rest of the world. We don't need to be globally competitive. Yes, it is great to be globally competitive, but we can support ourselves just fine without much needed from the rest of the world. Yes, if tariffs is added, price will probably increase and possibly put US Corporations at a disadvantage. But what if we give US Corporation another incentive such as lowering Corporation income tax or maybe remove Corporation income tax altogether if the product is made in the US. This probably invite Samsung, LG to open their factories here.
Before you jump in and scream end of the world if Corporation don't pay tax. They really don't pay income tax anyway. They however pay payroll, sales tax, as well as property tax.
The biggest issue I see is still labor. Why I said US labor is lazy?
Here are two quick examples:
- Fast food workers want $15/hr. That's how much an entry level college graduate get pay and they at least have a degree to show for. Those jobs are at minimum wage because they don't require skill or knowledge and suppose to be temporary. In the past, people who work there were students. In other word, flipping burger is not a career. Yet, they spend all these time demanding this and that. Why not improve yourself by go acquire a new skill so you open the door to more opportunity?
- The 99%er (so they called) complaint that the CEOs of many big corporations are getting pay 400 times the salary of the entry level position at their companies. Yet, the 99%er spend all their time complaint and complaint instead of improving themselves. Most successful CEO read average 1 book per week. What about the 99%er? Not even 1 book a year.
You are over-simplifying, and making incorrect assumptions about people. Many people are working fast food because those are the only jobs they can get, even if they have higher level skills and education. The $15/hr isn't just in fast foods, it is in retail and other lower paying jobs. It is about working for a company like WallyWorld, and still qualifying for assistance so that the company can make obscene profits for the owners, and get obscene assistance from the tax payers to support those profits. It is about working full time or more, and still not making enough to live on, much less having the leftover time, energy, and money to get a new skill.
Not even 1 book a year? Seriously? 99% of Americans don't read a book a year? Tell that to Barnes & Noble, Amazon, and the public library on the corner.
You are over-simplifying, and making incorrect assumptions about people. Many people are working fast food because those are the only jobs they can get, even if they have higher level skills and education. The $15/hr isn't just in fast foods, it is in retail and other lower paying jobs. It is about working for a company like WallyWorld, and still qualifying for assistance so that the company can make obscene profits for the owners, and get obscene assistance from the tax payers to support those profits. It is about working full time or more, and still not making enough to live on, much less having the leftover time, energy, and money to get a new skill.
Not even 1 book a year? Seriously? 99% of Americans don't read a book a year? Tell that to Barnes & Noble, Amazon, and the public library on the corner.
By that metric College Professor would be highest paid job in the country.
By that metric College Professor would be highest paid job in the country.
If I were king I would make sure that the superlative teachers and professors that I have known and been taught by would be paid much more money. Some of my med school teachers have yielded results of untold value. For instance one of my attendings taught my chief resident who became a leading medical oncolgist in Tucson. And then saved both the lives of my step sister and wife over the years with their different lymphomas. No doubt two of many lives.
Another issue is that tariffs could make the US dollar more expensive. Even if manufacturing jobs were saved, it could cost jobs in other areas. Most obvious being anything dependent on foreign tourism.
Another issue is that tariffs could make the US dollar more expensive. Even if manufacturing jobs were saved, it could cost jobs in other areas. Most obvious being anything dependent on foreign tourism.
Of course it would cause job losses, especially in areas dealing with replaced imports. But I see can't why this move would strengthen the USD. Less demand for foreign purchases made in USD, might mean a weakness.
I think we should have a set of countervailing tariffs that eliminate the price advantage of foreign imports due to wages, environmental considerations, government subsidy and any existing tariffs on American made goods. This would help maintain our manufacturing economy and produce taxes that could be used to aid workers displaced by industrial robots and automation.
Some fifty years ago when I returned from 'Nam I was a highly skilled machinist and machine builder. Once I realized that I did not want the low wages from working on the concrete factory floor I, with considerable help from my wife's family, earned a Environmental Science degree. That led to a decent but not luxurious career in Government. It was far better than standing on a concrete floor and having the social stigma of being a 'factory worker". The only thing I would have changed was to get a job for both myself and my lady with the EPA in the 70's. We would be much more prosperous now if we did.
If the GM plant at Youngstown, OH is an example they went from 24,000 workers in the 90's to 4,000 workers now as the direct result of robots and other industrial automation. Even tariffs are not going to cure that.
If I were king I would make sure that the superlative teachers and professors that I have known and been taught by would be paid much more money. Some of my med school teachers have yielded results of untold value. For instance one of my attendings taught my chief resident who became a leading medical oncolgist in Tucson. And then saved both the lives of my step sister and wife over the years with their different lymphomas. No doubt two of many lives.
Gee, If only we could ALL become doctors?????
Or those who teach them?
I DON'T have the skills, memory retention to remember 10,000 diseases and 20 Billion symptoms, stamina to see even my OWN blood, or all the body parts, beyond basic college entry Human Biology.
I wouldn't know how to write a Doctoral Thesis if it was handed to me word for word.
SO, NO, I CAN"T be a Doctor. not ALL of us have that capacity...remember HIGH SCHOOL was too difficult for some to even finish.
But tell me, OH GREAT ONE, WHO-WHO-WHO CLEANS Up AFTER YOU? WHo mops your floors and scours your toilets and instruments so YOU CAN PLY YOUR TRADE?
ANd, pray tell, do THEY make more than minimum to $15/hour? MAYBE in some cities with higher cost of living. But it is still MINIMUM wage or slightly above worker the hoity-toidy 1% expect to MAKE IT POSSIBLE for the 1% to DO THEIR JOBS.
Henry Ford saw the LITTLE MAN...the one who puts the bolt on the tire day after day..... was WORTH $5/week at a time when that was UNHEARD OF. HE KNEW that if a tire fell off a Ford, no one would want to buy a Ford. HE PAID ATTENTION......and STILL made millions while being fair to his workers.
Now it's JUST PLAIN GREED.
But with not so much money in the ecomony, and areas like mine being minimum wage based now {cause after all that's ALL they are REQUIRED to pay}, the goose who laid the golden egg is dying, so LET'S just increase prices so people can't afford to buy it? AND hope we can add to or PAD our bottom line? to make more money for ourselves? WHAT IF THE 99% STOPPED BUYING ANYTHING EXCEPT FOOD?
STILL...WHO is going to clean the `1%-ers toilets? THEM THEMSELVES? I think NOT!
Grr
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