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Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
13,073 posts, read 7,511,991 times
Reputation: 9798
When the 1%ers stop buying.
We are may be a 10%er, retired, enough $$from multiple sources, and we are essential out of the markets. Few more holding to liquidate.
YMMV
Do you have your plan at the ready for the final days?
actually i do . we can really tip in to any economic scenario from here . so while i don't want to give up on stocks as they likely do have farther to run , i have shifted the portfolio over to a model that prepares and can profit from other outcomes .
In 2007 several of my CPA friends basically left the stock market...
They shift into bonds... no bond funds and cash.
Their reason is the market no longer made sense to them.
In 2009 they started picking up foreclosed homes... some of which here in Oakland California had dropped as much as 80% in two years and every block had at least one foreclosure... 2009-2012.
They did extremely well and as foreclosures here slowed went back into stocks...
They are again at a crossroad... all are retirement age or older.
When the home in my old neighborhood adjacent to my rental home sold for 510k in 2007 and in 2009 sells as a Bank foreclosure for 100k... well... I have never seen anything like it and the people that bought at 510k spent money on improvements!
Very few people have been able to successfully time the market perfectly over decades. There are times though to balance your investments and take some profits, not necessarily selling 100% of stocks, but 33-50%. This seems like a good time to do that.
Things are precarious now. There are a so many hotspots in the world including the US that you can just feel it. We are living in interesting times.
It is interesting to see how all of us view the same trends differently. I do not see the stock market at "astronomical" highs. Instead I cannot understand what happened in 2015 and much of 2016 that held market prices low. Yields from bonds, commodities and other assets have been really low and risky. If anything the stock market has caught up to where it should have been. The Shiller PE has still not broken the 30 level. Lots of money is still on the sidelines.
That said I have no ability to predict what is going to happen. My bet is we are in for at least a couple of fairly decent years. If not I am ready to react to changing markets. I have money available for buying if the market starts to show a significant decline.
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