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Old 03-12-2017, 03:52 PM
 
Location: Texas
1,890 posts, read 1,245,364 times
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We have almost reached full employment. Anyone that can work and has the training, knowledge or intelligence is already working, so wages will be slowly increasing. With full employment, establishments will have to pay more in order for people to switch jobs.

Not much help for the untrained, jobs will be more automated in the future or outsourced.

The transportation industry will have a large affect on our economy in the near future. Many jobs will be lost due to automation and many will not be absorbed.
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Old 03-12-2017, 03:55 PM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
26,875 posts, read 57,924,091 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txfriend View Post
Anyone that can work and has the training, knowledge or intelligence is already working...

Not much help for the untrained, jobs will be more automated in the future or outsourced.
^^THIS is the problem... the size of this contingent is larger than ever and growing daily.
The old models of "full employment" miss them.

But even if they were trained... there aren't enough of THOSE jobs available.
All that training them to be an X accomplishes is to dilute the labor value of those who are an X.

Something else needs to be done with this mass of surplus humanity.
Pretending that things like Unemployment or Jobs Programs can do it only delays the inevitable.

Last edited by MrRational; 03-12-2017 at 04:07 PM..
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Old 03-12-2017, 04:43 PM
 
5,603 posts, read 4,211,347 times
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I don't know about a mass of surplus humanity. Households with incomes over $100k have been growing rapidly. I think we are seeing a definite split in the middle class. Those with education and/or significant training and skills are doing well and having no problems finding jobs.....with one exception. It is often necessary to move to locations were job growth is occurring. Those without skills are facing a declining future. Automation, robotics and globalization are taking a toll. The bottom of the middle class is also finding competition from legal and mostly illegal aliens. Trump claims he can fix this, but that seems unlikely. The decline began in the 60s well before significant globalization. The nature of manufacturing has changed. High skilled people are needed. Many low pay low skill jobs have vanished. This is especially true in agriculture where small labor intensive farms have been replaced by large scale mechanized farming and ranching.


We live in a society based on individual freedom. I am not sure anything aside from maybe basic needs has to be provided by society. People are free to do what they want including not learning much through mandatory schooling and not making much effort to succeed later in life.
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Old 03-12-2017, 04:50 PM
 
Location: Texas
1,890 posts, read 1,245,364 times
Reputation: 6445
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrRational View Post
^^THIS is the problem... the size of this contingent is larger than ever and growing daily.
The old models of "full employment" miss them.

But even if they were trained... there aren't enough of THOSE jobs available.
All that training them to be an X accomplishes is to dilute the labor value of those who are an X.

Something else needs to be done with this mass of surplus humanity.
Pretending that things like Unemployment or Jobs Programs can do it only delays the inevitable.
This may help somewhat, not sure Americans will go for a long apprenticeship program.

U.S. Companies Turn to German Training Model to Fill Jobs Gap

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-com...gap-1474911069
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Old 03-12-2017, 05:07 PM
 
2,621 posts, read 2,028,654 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txfriend View Post
Anyone that can work and has the training, knowledge or intelligence is already working, so wages will be slowly increasing.
Wish that was true, more like this.

Anyone that can work and has the training, knowledge or intelligence and is not older or has long term gaps or is long term unemployed or a returning stay at home parent, is already working, so wages will be slowly increasing.
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Old 03-12-2017, 05:16 PM
 
4,745 posts, read 2,266,022 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rabaman View Post
People have been anticipating the end for years and missing out on all sorts of gains.
They will be the first ones in here screaming "told you so" when we do have a correction, conveniently forgetting that we gave back 12% of the 85% gains we made while they sat in cash earning nothing and screaming the gains weren't real.
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Old 03-13-2017, 02:51 AM
 
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
11,068 posts, read 11,469,953 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bygeorge View Post
Ha! I have good friends whose party ended in 2008 and have been against the wall since. One couple lost everything thanks to a "financial advisor". They were suckered in. I also know people, mostly men in their 50s who were laid off and have been unable to find anything near what they were earning back in 2007. Some party.
There are always people who make poor choices at managing their money. If they were carrying substantial debt and were forced to sell assets during a downturn, it would be very difficult for them to recover. As long as you stayed away from the personal debt quicksand 10 years ago, you have done very well in the recovery.
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:50 AM
 
Location: Olympus Mons, Mars
5,000 posts, read 8,040,047 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bygeorge View Post
Ha! I have good friends whose party ended in 2008 and have been against the wall since. One couple lost everything thanks to a "financial advisor". They were suckered in. I also know people, mostly men in their 50s who were laid off and have been unable to find anything near what they were earning back in 2007. Some party.
thanks, I have seen this as well. And prior to losing everything they were chanting how good the stock market and economy was and then one day poof. This is why I think that investing in the stock market is like playing roulette in Vegas. Unless you research thoroughly to know what exactly you are doing to minimize risk you should not be investing. But how many people are doing that? Most are just listening to some financial advisor who does not have their best interest in mind but rather just his or her commissions.
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Old 03-13-2017, 10:52 AM
 
Location: Olympus Mons, Mars
5,000 posts, read 8,040,047 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
They will be the first ones in here screaming "told you so" when we do have a correction, conveniently forgetting that we gave back 12% of the 85% gains we made while they sat in cash earning nothing and screaming the gains weren't real.
The last correction was 53% over a period of just 5 months not 12%... why do you think it will correct only 12% when it's doubled?
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Old 03-13-2017, 11:09 AM
 
7,011 posts, read 6,641,386 times
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The 2000-2003 bear market gave back 50% of the gains from the 1990-2000 bull market.

The 2007-2009 bear market gave back 62% of the same rally.

Bear markets often give back 50 percent of the gains of the prior bull. 1982, 1987, 1990, and 2003 fit that pattern.

It will take a period of higher volatility before something like 2000 and 2007 start. There were three 10 percent corrections in the six months before the highs in 2000 as the Fed raised interest rates and did some peculiar actions around Y2K, causing liquidity to fluctuate wildly.
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