Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
In addition, the bond market is a serious sign of concern right now.
Bond yields are extremely low. If not for Operation Twist 1 and 2, the 10 year yield would probably be 5 percent. The publicly available supply of bonds is also shrinking. By some estimates, the ECB buys 2.5 times the net issuance of bonds in Europe and the BOJ buys 150 percent in their market.
96% of s&p 500 companies not only beat profits but more important beat revenue . rates are low ,inflation is low , energy prices are low ,generally energy is a big factor in modern recessions .
foreign demand and economies are picking up to .
i predict we are still pretty far away
I do as well. I think things will just roll along for a while and then we will have a correction here and there. I don't think we have a bank bubble situation or super overvaluation on homes. Hope we just have nice and slow growth, not too fast.
Knowing that Obama would follow the only sensible course by using spending and debt to turn around the mess that eight years of Bush-43 had finally collapsed into, the GOP simply went into obstructionist mode and railed on and on about the evils of spending and debt. In their minds, a bad economy would be good for them at the polls, so they did whatever they could to block and slow the process of recovery. Party before Country.
This is a funny non-response to this threat. Do you just post this in every thread whatsoever regardless of the topic so you get the your mantra out? You do know Obama is no longer president don't you?
Is there some way you believe this recital has something to do with whether a recession is pending int he coming year?
Back to the topic, I expect an adjustment or recession of some sort is possible. It appears that auto manufacturers and other retailers like Amazon and Walmart are at least uncertain and are putting some planned investment on hold temporarily. There is at least some uncertainty, maybe fear?
Mumbo jumbo. It feels more like a logjam has been broken, to me. I feel optimism. I know facts are different than feelings, but I'm a glass half full person.
Too many help wanted signs on business windows with lines of customers for me not to see retail growth.
I do think the on line revolution is changing the appearance of retail. I was even buying automatic delivery of dog food, which worked out ok. But the local store has started carrying the huge bag to my car and it is just as easy to carry from car trunk to inside the house as is front door delivery so I am back to supporting local when I can
Will there be another recession? Sometime. so invest, save money, and pay off debt now. Will there be corrections? Most likely. So just plan ahead for when they do happen. Is economics cyclical? Yes but can vary by severity and length of cycles.
In other words, the economy can and will expand, contract, or stay about the same, but there are no actual cycles involved in that. It all happens de novo based uniquely on events and conditions of the time.
Knowing that Obama would follow the only sensible course by using spending and debt to turn around the mess that eight years of Bush-43 had finally collapsed into, the GOP simply went into obstructionist mode and railed on and on about the evils of spending and debt. In their minds, a bad economy would be good for them at the polls, so they did whatever they could to block and slow the process of recovery. Party before Country.
We all see the same news, but personal bias has a huge effect on how we interpret the same events.
I have neighbors with 'Resist Trump' and 'Obstruct the GOP' signs in their dooryards. I am not sure that helps.
We all see the same news, but personal bias has a huge effect on how we interpret the same events. I have neighbors with 'Resist Trump' and 'Obstruct the GOP' signs in their dooryards. I am not sure that helps.
It certainly wouldn't have helped put the brakes on the Great Recession. Neither did the facts of GOP anti-recovery obstructionism. In times of national crisis, the parties have often managed to put their differences aside and come together to work for the good of the country as a whole. This time was not one of those times.
In other words, the economy can and will expand, contract, or stay about the same, but there are no actual cycles involved in that. It all happens de novo based uniquely on events and conditions of the time.
This is another syntactical confusion. What is a “cycle”? If we mean strictly a sinusoidal oscillation, with known frequency and phase, then no, of course the economy isn’t cyclical. But if by “cycle” we mean “periods of higher growth, periods of lower growth, occasional brief periods of negative growth, and some exchange between these three”, then surely the economy is cyclical. "Cycle" could just mean: "takes different values over time, and
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
We all see the same news, but personal bias has a huge effect on how we interpret the same events.
This is a crucial point. What is prosperity? That depends on our expectations and on our personal experience. A cattle herder in rural Africa, tending to 10 heads of emaciated cattle, who later finds himself with 20 or 30 well-fed cattle, would regard himself as become prosperous, and would regard the economic times to be in prosperity… even if he still lacks indoor plumbing or education or his kids. But a fellow with $5M in stocks, who sustains a 20% investment-loss, will naturally be screaming about economic doomsday.
Was the 2008 economic crisis caused by Bush, Clinton, or no president at all? That depends mostly on our political orientation. Everyone blames the other guy. Libertarians will blame the government. Conservatives will blame the bloated welfare state. Liberals will blame wealth-inequality. Nativists will blame immigration and free-trade. Free-traders will blame tariffs. And nearly everyone will blame bankers, or as the piquant term goes, “banksters”… because who likes banks?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner
I have neighbors with 'Resist Trump' and 'Obstruct the GOP' signs in their dooryards. I am not sure that helps.
It doesn't. But it has tremendous cathartic value, mirroring the "lock her up" chants from the opposing camp.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
