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Old 12-25-2017, 09:33 AM
 
6,997 posts, read 6,632,415 times
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Both physical stores and online stores require this.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES4300000001
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Old 12-25-2017, 09:52 PM
 
230 posts, read 277,439 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lieqiang View Post
You've done plenty of squawking about recessions that are about to begin, and don't appear to ever be right despite lovely charts.

Here you are back in 2016:

If you could use charts as evidence of a recession starting later in 2016 or 2017, and the economy was just fine, how are you so certain that your ability interpret charts to predict recessions has improved?

Maybe you can pull a Peter Schiff and keep on predicting it every year until it happens.
Historical speaking they occur every 7 to 8 years on average. So we are due for one based on historical data.
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Old 12-25-2017, 09:57 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
11,354 posts, read 7,403,434 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irco View Post
Historical speaking they occur every 7 to 8 years on average. So we are due for one based on historical data.
Does this mean the recession of '07 was scheduled and could not be stopped?

I always heard it was "Bush's fault" and that we were only saved from certain annihilation by Obama's swift and decisive action.
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Old 12-26-2017, 12:32 AM
 
3,579 posts, read 2,017,127 times
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No, 2007-2008 was also caused by bad policy. Bush wasn't solely at fault but he had a big hand in it.

And yes the stimulus under Obama did seem to turn around the job picture in a hurry.
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Old 12-26-2017, 12:19 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
20,958 posts, read 15,275,811 times
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This is part of a larger, structural economic change.

I've been buying online for years since I was at least 18 back in 2004. Having mostly lived in small towns, online shopping was the only way to get many items. I have always built my own personal PCs, and there has never been a retailer that sold much in the way of PC components within a hundred miles of this area. Online shopping was, and remains, my only source for a lot of items I can't find at local retail.

Also, online shopping has been cheaper for many, many years. I was pretty "radical" in that I bought my college textbooks off Amazon and similar for a substantial discount compared to what I could get them for even used locally. This was back in the mid 2000s.

The bottom line is that if you are selling something that is convenient to be ordered online or practical to ship, it will be difficult to stay in business.
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Old 12-31-2017, 11:47 AM
 
8,377 posts, read 7,365,888 times
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It is amazing the comments on this thread that say retail trade is dying.

Fact 2017 has seen a 4% increase in in store retail sales over 2016, with Christmas season best in years.

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/bu...-forecast.html

You read retail stores are closing in vast numbers, but in truth there are more stores opening than closing.

https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcom...URL=&referrer=

The big reasons for stores closing.

Customers like new beautiful stores.

1: Old stores in a decling part of town, and leases are up. New stores are opening in the area that the retail buyers are shifting their shopping to.

2: Shopping center where located, is old and needs replaced and customers no longer come to the area to shop, so they leave when leases expire.
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Old 12-31-2017, 11:59 AM
 
64,574 posts, read 66,100,109 times
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today we just do business differently . i see no reason to tolerate slow service and minimal staff in stores .

i made the mistake of going in to a store that i usually only deal with on line . they had 1 checkout person and a line waiting to check out .

i am like , now i know why i avoid going to local stores if i don't have to .

if you want to have a local business at least staff it like you are serious .

i won't mention the name as it is a well known store too , but it rhymes with carnes and boble
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Old 01-01-2018, 08:18 AM
 
4,720 posts, read 2,255,657 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irco View Post
Historical speaking they occur every 7 to 8 years on average. So we are due for one based on historical data.
Something usually occurring every 7-8 years doesn't make your previous predictions correct, does it? In early 2016 you said we'd have a recession later in 2016 or maybe 2017, and you posted some pretty charts to prove it.

Well Happy New Year! It's 2018, and no recession. So what happened? Were your charts wrong or were you interpreting them wrong?

Quote:
Originally Posted by oldtrader View Post
You read retail stores are closing in vast numbers, but in truth there are more stores opening than closing.
This seems quite common, people catch a headline showing only one side. OMG company xyz is laying off 800 workers! Nevermind they hired 1,200 workers over the previous three years.
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Old 01-02-2018, 06:01 PM
 
Location: Vallejo
13,438 posts, read 15,041,010 times
Reputation: 11924
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
today we just do business differently . i see no reason to tolerate slow service and minimal staff in stores .

i made the mistake of going in to a store that i usually only deal with on line . they had 1 checkout person and a line waiting to check out .

i am like , now i know why i avoid going to local stores if i don't have to .

if you want to have a local business at least staff it like you are serious .

i won't mention the name as it is a well known store too , but it rhymes with carnes and boble
Interesting.

That's one of the few elective shopping stores I actually prefer to go into, something about physical books. I still prefer them to reading on a Kindle and like going through book stores and browsing to find things to read the old-fashioned way by stumbling up and down the aisles and reading snippets of this and that. Usually they're pretty good about staffing.
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Old 01-03-2018, 01:06 AM
 
Location: USA
6,171 posts, read 4,950,686 times
Reputation: 10547
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
today we just do business differently . i see no reason to tolerate slow service and minimal staff in stores .

i made the mistake of going in to a store that i usually only deal with on line . they had 1 checkout person and a line waiting to check out .

i am like , now i know why i avoid going to local stores if i don't have to .

if you want to have a local business at least staff it like you are serious .

i won't mention the name as it is a well known store too , but it rhymes with carnes and boble
Lousy service is what keeps me out of anything other than grocery stores for staples. I went into a national chain hardware store looking for a washer. There was nobody working in the department, had to call a manager who took 10 minutes to get there and knew nothing about anything. It turned out the model was out of stock and they didn't know when it would be restocked. I simply walked out and went to a local appliance store "main street" style. I was greeted upon entry by a nice man with a tie and shirt who knew what he was selling. it was a little more expensive but I guess good services costs a little extra today. A small business owner knows to stay in business they have to provide superior personalized service that the big stores don't.
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