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Old 08-19-2018, 05:16 PM
1,040 posts, read 414,845 times
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Originally Posted by kwong7 View Post
It's a lot more complicated:

1) It is harder to be a homebuilder these days due to regulations, wages, cost to startup, competitive disadvantage to the legacy builders, etc.

2) Governments are restricting land for development.

3) Homebuilders are after margin and would rather develop premium housing instead of "starter" housing.

4) Available properties are in competition with international buyers and people with real estate portfolios...competition drives up the price.

5) Homebuilders are cautious about overbuilding given the horrors of the oversupply during the housing bubble. A lot of builders went under and those remaining had to eat their losses for years. They've adopted the Porsche model where they build to demand instead of estimating supply demanded. Ever hear anyone getting a deal on a Porsche over the last 8 years? Me neither...the consumer has zero leverage.

6) There are increasingly popular places to live that aren't able to meet the pace of demand.

I'm sure there are several other factors too, but those are what comes to mind.
This is the best summarization about the state of the housing market I've seen yet.

I would also like to add tighter lending standards that have suppressed real demand for housing (I'd argue this was an over-correction).
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Old 08-20-2018, 09:12 AM
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In addition to the private equity firms snapping up entry-level homes and foreclosures, the builders are focusing on apartments instead of condos since about 2011. The demographics favored the economics of renting because of the large cohort in the 18-34 group.

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Old 08-21-2018, 10:42 AM
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Fannie Mae rollback of debt-to-income ratios back to 45 from 50 after mortgage insurers balked is probably causing the minor pullback in home sales


That's indicated by the year-over-year decline from the start of the program while the month-to-month figures are rising.
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Old 09-11-2018, 10:24 AM
Location: Holly Neighborhood, AUSTINtx
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This is a great article because it breaks down all of the different costs that eventually get passed on to the consumer. Its based on the Portland market, but most of these costs will be found elsewhere to greater and lesser degrees.

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Old 09-12-2018, 06:36 PM
Location: Myrtle Creek, Oregon
11,047 posts, read 11,455,634 times
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As the leading edge of the boomer generation, you can expect a lot of homes to start coming on the market in 10 or 15 years as elderly people either die off or downsize to apartment/assisted living. I'm 71, and the actuarial tables say people my age can expect to live to 86. I have already lost half a dozen friends, and the avalanche is just starting. A rising death rate will also stabilize the US population, letting construction catch up with demand. I'll be long gone 25 years from now, but expect the housing shortage will be a thing of the past by then.
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Old 09-13-2018, 08:36 AM
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Easy money: 1 in 4 FHA loans have DTI over 50% and average FICO scores are now 661

Signs mortgage lenders are easing their standards | Boston Herald
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