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Old 06-29-2017, 09:18 PM
 
Location: Greater Houston
4,514 posts, read 8,605,742 times
Reputation: 2086

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Quote:
Originally Posted by MinivanDriver View Post
At a very high cost. Energy costs have risen roughly 50% in Germany since this effort has taken place.
If Germany was on the Earth's Sunbelt, they would be golden! Keep in mind that Germany still produces things and is only funding this as part of R&D. They are the largest economy in the EU and are the ones holding up the value of the Euro right now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Willistonite View Post
As usual you have no facts to back anything up. Just what you hear or read from liberals fake news.
There is nothing economic to replace oil at the this time. Also you need to Google what is made by
petroleum products you would be amazed. I would love to see your attitude if you were paying $7 per gallon. Probably much different.
Liberals making fake news? The fake news has been coming out of Fox News (for 2 decades), Breitbart (for a decade), talk radio (for 3 decades), et al. The right wing is building a Soviet-style walled garden pushing alternative reality/facts for their sheeple.

Tesla is about to make electric mainstream. The oil companies, due to their conservative in-the-box thinking, are not expanding their business lines to include renewable energy. They will end up being the American cars when the disruptors arrive in their Japanese cars.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoonose View Post
But this time around the shock was in the industry and geographical areas heavily involved. Not the general economy.
But people in those geographic areas are reducing their consumption and other places are feeling the effects of oil workers staying home in lower tourism numbers (and lower spending if traveling). You can glean the multiplier effect from the casual dining industry being dragged down by their stores in those geographical areas.

The Obama recovery gave way to the Trump Slump due to the divisive election. The current "prosperity" is only from 1%ers dumping money into the economy to stir hopes of a recovery as they trade assets for hard cash during the peak. They are almost finished selling depreciating assets and taking the profits to the bank. The recession should start any minute!
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Old 06-29-2017, 10:06 PM
 
Location: New York Area
13,439 posts, read 5,227,534 times
Reputation: 10769
Default Prices won't change much

Quote:
Originally Posted by AJT123 View Post
I would imagine fuel will stay cheap like this for at least 3-5 years due to general trends, supply and demand, etc. Maybe even a decade.

But wondering what others think, or if any professionals in the industry can chime in.

It's funny. The gas guzzler, body-on-frame SUVs (Tahoe, Expedition, Yukon, etc.) are everywhere again. I remember how back when gas was $4 they were piled up on dealer lots.

When I started driving (1998) gas was .89, .99., and .$1.09 for premium. Then it crept up at the turn of the century, became ridiculous another 7 or so years later, then leveled back down a bit but in general stayed high. Now, in 2017, it's downright cheap.

Hoping gas will remain cheap for the next decade or longer.
I suspect it will remain cheap. A little history, using New York area prices is in order. For all inflation adjustment I use https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl. I us regular leaded through 1979 and regular unleaded thereafter.

Gas was around $0.399 at the end of 1972 ($2.30 in today's prices), just before widespread spot shortages the next summer, followed by gas lines in the winter of 1973-4 set in. I remember gas being around $0559 in spring 1975, my senior year of high and first really big driving year. That was also when prices returned to levels set by competition at the pump rather than controls, which had held down prices from roughly January 1973 on. That comes to around $2.61 a gallon in inflation adjusted dollars, not far from current prices.

After decontrol in 1981 the price dropped from about $1.59 for unleaded regular, or $4.47 in today's dollars, to around $1.19 a gallon in late 1982. That would be around $2.98 in today's dollars. After bouncing back to $1.39 during summer 1983, or $3.41 in today's dollars, the prices began gyrating in that rough range, until they took a decisive tumble from the end of 1985 to April 1986, to around $1.00 per gallon, or $2.24 in today's dollars. After returning to around $1.59 in late 1990 and early 1991 as a consequence of Iraq's conquest of Kuwait, the prices again fell to around $1.00 per gallon in late 1998 and early 1999 ($1.49 in today's dollars).

So that first cheap period, which really came to an end by the summer of 2002 ($1.83 at pumps, or $2.29 when adjusted for inflation) the price rose with some fluctuations in between to around $4.46, or $4.96 adjusted for inflation. Now, with some bounces lower we have been between about $2.55 and $2.79 a gallon in most of the last two years.

We first hit $2.59 on the upside in July or August 2005, and are now near that level at most area stations again.

So prices have essentially fluctuated in a range from around $2.30 a gallon to around $3.40 a gallon, with a few extreme spikes up (in summer 2008) and down (winter 1998-9). I see no reason why we shouldn't stay in the low end of that range, given abundant domestic and Canadian supplies.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AJT123 View Post
Can we please not turn this into an Al Gore treehugger speech?
I repped this post. The problem with what this poster pejoratively calls "treehuggers" is that they seem to feel guilty about prosperity. They point to no concrete benefit from shrinking our lifestyle, only some speculative temperature changes a huge number of years out, without even bothering to figure out what the temperatures would be without any changes as contrasted to with changes.
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Old 06-29-2017, 10:18 PM
 
Location: The Berk in Denver, CO USA
13,130 posts, read 18,750,321 times
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I am guessing for a very long time as the USA has huge supplies/reserves of natural gas.
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Old 06-29-2017, 10:18 PM
 
Location: New York Area
13,439 posts, read 5,227,534 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
Fracking is a sign of a culture desperate to keep an unsustainable way of life going to the bitter end. A culture in the helpless grip of corporate interests, that will resort to anything, including fouling its dwindling water supplies, to keep oil flowing.

Remember that, as you enjoy your cheap gas.
What makes it unsustainable besides panic on the part of global planners, a/k/a supports of Kyoto and its latest iteration, Paris?
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Old 06-29-2017, 10:22 PM
 
Location: New York Area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cats234 View Post
yep, NJ can thank its POS governor for sucking out to demoncrats and raising the fuel tax
Ditto Pennsylvania. I don't know the politics there. In NJ's case the better move would have been to raise taxes by about $0.13, not $0.23 since fewer price shoppers from NY probably go to Jersey to buy gas. I know that just today I was going from my White Plains office to Court in Orange County, and I filled up at Costco in Nanuet for $2.15 rather than bothering to go to Mahwah to pay $2.13 at a Sunoco right on the border.
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Old 06-29-2017, 10:43 PM
 
Location: New York Area
13,439 posts, read 5,227,534 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MinivanDriver View Post
Well, in 1974, the average price of a gallon of gas hit 55 cents.

In inflation-adjusted dollars, that is $2.82 in today's dollars.

Gas in my area is $1.95-$2.00, depending on where you fill up. So, comparatively speaking, gas is indeed cheap.
I agree and may rep this post. My only quibble, see my post #42, How long will gas remain this cheap is that 1974 was a relative high point. If you are using late 1974 it's a good comparison since while controls were still in place prices were below controlled levels. If you were using the shortage-riven early 1974 prices were relatively meaningless.

How do you know when prices are held down by controls? When you see prices ending in figures other than ".9". For example, at the Hess station in Scarsdale Mobil station I remember seeing gasoline at $0.475 in March 1974 (very low due to a glitch in controls which was fixed late that month) to $.568 a gallon and just over $0.60. Then when allocations were removed the price was reduced to $0.579. I stopped following its price when a nearby Merit dropped to $0.529 and Hess in Mamaroneck to $0.539.
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Old 06-29-2017, 10:44 PM
 
Location: New York Area
13,439 posts, read 5,227,534 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
My attitude would be the same; we should have pursued sustainable energy development back when Carter put solar panels on the White House roof. If we had, we'd be in better shape now. Notice that Germany and Denmark have succeeded in much less time than that, in replacing oil as an energy source to a very significant extent.
To what extent is solar being subsidized in those countries. From my recollection quite a bit. Another socialist luxury they can afford since we're covering their defense.
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Old 06-29-2017, 10:48 PM
 
Location: New York Area
13,439 posts, read 5,227,534 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Labonte18 View Post
you're somewhat remembering a glut period. That time was an aberration. I remember it.. It is still the cheapest that I ever have seen a gallon of gas that I can remember.. I was born in '73 and right around that time you mention, either 97 or 98, I filled up for 79 cents a gallon. Cheapest I've ever bought gas.
You remember correctly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Labonte18 View Post
That still hasn't changed entirely. You have something break out and the prices will shoot up. But, agreed that OPEC is a paper tiger at this point.
Even when "something break(s) out prices move very little.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Labonte18 View Post
That may change again a few years down the road, but right now, they can't seemingly do anything to combat the low prices.

I would say in the next few years.. We might see some changes because many of those countries cannot balance their budgets at current prices. The Saudis are likely the only ones who can.


Actually, latest info I found, it's Kuwait..



  • Nigeria at $139
  • Bahrain at $84
  • Angola at $82
  • Oman at $75
  • Saudi Arabia at $74
  • Russia at $72
  • Kazakhstan at $71
  • Gabon at $66
  • Azerbaijan at $66
  • Iraq at $61
  • Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, at $60
  • Republic of Congo at $52
  • Qatar at $51
  • Kuwait at $45
That's the average price per barrel that the countries need to balance their budget. Right now.. it's at about $46.
The ability of an Arab country to balance its budget is irrelevant. Oil prices are not a function of foreign aid. The price is set by the market. Even a mild price bump makes different fracking or shale oil projects viable. Unlike other oil production they can be turned off and on.
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Old 06-29-2017, 10:51 PM
 
Location: New York Area
13,439 posts, read 5,227,534 times
Reputation: 10769
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
This isn't some Wall Street conspiracy. Fracking in the United States has some impact on global supply but the US is only the #3 producer. The Russians and Saudis could collude and jack up oil prices but they haven't done that.
Given that both countries have a total absence of transparency I doubt they could effectively collude. Someone in each of those countries will cheat.
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Old 06-30-2017, 07:47 AM
 
Location: Beautiful Pennsylvania / Dull Germany
2,206 posts, read 2,500,994 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
Solar is so cheap and practical that it threatened to put conventional power stations into mothballs, threatening thousands of jobs in Germany. Similarly, Arizona restricted solar development to some extent, fearing that their power companies would go belly-up, and would have no way to pay staff to maintain the facilities.
Unfortunately, solar power is not reliable enough to completely rely on it. At the same time, it has unlimited priority in the German power grid according the to the renewable energy act. That means, if the sun is shining, the coal power plant has to reduce its output by partially shutting down, and if there is not enough sun or wind, conventional plants have to fire up or energy has to be imported. And that means losses in money and energy.

The problem with those large conventional coal plants is they are not designed for those flexibilty and government just changed the operational requirements within a couple of years. A 2.5 GW powerplant cannot be switched on and off or run in partial mode without extreme losses in efficiency.

If a utilities company invests in a $2bn power plant, they do it to earn back their money over the next 30 years. This has basically been destroyed by the far too ambitious and strict EEG-law, huge power plants became worthless. And then the cities owning shares in the big generation companies were surprised, why they don't have any dividend left from those companies for their budget deficit. It's like eating up yourself.
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