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Old 07-17-2017, 02:00 PM
 
Location: Chicago area
8,197 posts, read 12,437,296 times
Reputation: 14774

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ro2113 View Post
A government that collapses will indeed cause people to flee their homes so rooting for that is self-deafeating. Why not utilize your voting power?
I do but the majority of people in Illinois do not utilize it wisely. They voted to retain a judge that was found legally insane and had the get the stage hook from the State Supreme Court. They voted twice for a governor that tried to put a US Senate seat on Ebay.
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Old 07-17-2017, 06:48 PM
 
Location: Silicon Valley
2,773 posts, read 1,223,004 times
Reputation: 5100
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSchemist80 View Post
I do but the majority of people in Illinois do not utilize it wisely. They voted to retain a judge that was found legally insane and had the get the stage hook from the State Supreme Court. They voted twice for a governor that tried to put a US Senate seat on Ebay.
Nobody ever claimed Democracy was perfect.

AP-2001-06-16 FBI closes Candy store in Cicero

That one's still my favorite.

But now, 15 years later, is Cicero a hub of opportunity? Outfit power is likely down, but was it merely replaced by the cartel?

The irony is in people looking at California's governance web and going....no no no. Yet, they then see their own local governments as dooming them all. California's maze of regulatory agencies wouldn't work elsewhere. They work because the State already has the companies and the innovation occurring and the government is keeping up, keeping in check the almost libertarianism that exists at the top. Extracting concessions to make programs for others. The programs may work, or may not work. Doesn't really matter....it placates people. It slows down companies like Uber from launching their driverless cars without further research. It stops banks from becoming their own worst enemy when they're robots-foreclosing on homes and driving more homes into negative equity and destroying the property tax basis. It keeps standards on products high enough to disallow the State from being flooded by cheap and hazardous imports.

Every State does the same. It's just they have fewer pillars of strength to pick from. Worse, in a commodity situation, the State also has to compete with other States because both can do something but too much regulation will drive an industry elsewhere. Assembly jobs can be done anywhere...shipping costs/time are no longer a barrier...so there's no way to win. Unions fight the fight for them, but they can't unionize the whole world.

In the first place I was at here, I learned it. When you're making something for an engineering team, the costs don't really matter as much as getting a new function and integrating well. After a product debuted and volumes went crazy, it was a matter of keeping up and just being here to be able to integrate it in. Once purchasing moves to purchasing and from development, and the final designs have been settled on, that's when price starts becoming important. The big runs are going overseas.

It's ok though, because those engineers that finalized whatever it is they're building are moving on to version 2, and they'll need to have someone here that can work with them to get items to specs. And the game continues on. The game, though expensive, continues here because of the track record. The true tech makers will prosper so long as they stay relevant. Everyone else goes up and down based on their ability to support. Finally, the government runs behind picking up the crumbs and trying to keep the marketplace fair.

In a sense, the government has many rules here, but it simply governs. And the while it's complicated, everyone has their own little A to B of what they need to do so they do it. Elections are a joke, as there's no real competition, but internally there's a division within the Democrats and when the moderates win, things go well, but it's a sideshow. Nobody cares. The State is working like it is supposed too overall, and that's good enough. No drama, no wild changing rules, but not a static unchanging governance either. If you're running a shady operation in California...you're going down at some point. Whether that's mistreating your employees, or using bad product substitute, or distributing improperly or simply not taking the time to ensure your product won't hurt others. The State is going to govern that.

The result is jobs. The result are huge swaths of urban areas where you can't buy a home for less than $1M and the mean or median family income well in excess of 6 figures. The result is continuing growth and outside investment pouring in from around the world. California isn't going to collapse. That's where the arrogance comes in. It's like Usain Bolt being told he's all wrong from people that used to run in high school or college. No we're not perfect....but that's not really the intention either. Imagine how many people would move here if we were perfect. The giant welfare net is ever changing. What works today won't work later. But it all sounds really good, and gives a necessary modicum of security in a place where people do not stay in their jobs start to finish.

If we were to decline, it would be because we can no longer get the world's best engineers (Muslim ban, tighter immigration restrictions) or the world's investment starts flowing in another direction (India's Modi succeeds in deregulation, Austin/Boston/NYC start attracting more engineers away). Hollywood's going to be hard to replace as is the climate.

So in talking collapse you're looking at either:
1. Foreign invasion
2. San Andreas movie style earthquake
3. Secession from the US/Tremendous punitive regulation from the US Fed like a trade war.

Barring that the outlook is pretty good for the area.
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Old 07-17-2017, 06:58 PM
 
2,253 posts, read 1,398,389 times
Reputation: 4906
Quote:
Originally Posted by artillery77 View Post
Nobody ever claimed Democracy was perfect.

AP-2001-06-16 FBI closes Candy store in Cicero

That one's still my favorite.

But now, 15 years later, is Cicero a hub of opportunity? Outfit power is likely down, but was it merely replaced by the cartel?

The irony is in people looking at California's governance web and going....no no no. Yet, they then see their own local governments as dooming them all. California's maze of regulatory agencies wouldn't work elsewhere. They work because the State already has the companies and the innovation occurring and the government is keeping up, keeping in check the almost libertarianism that exists at the top. Extracting concessions to make programs for others. The programs may work, or may not work. Doesn't really matter....it placates people. It slows down companies like Uber from launching their driverless cars without further research. It stops banks from becoming their own worst enemy when they're robots-foreclosing on homes and driving more homes into negative equity and destroying the property tax basis. It keeps standards on products high enough to disallow the State from being flooded by cheap and hazardous imports.

Every State does the same. It's just they have fewer pillars of strength to pick from. Worse, in a commodity situation, the State also has to compete with other States because both can do something but too much regulation will drive an industry elsewhere. Assembly jobs can be done anywhere...shipping costs/time are no longer a barrier...so there's no way to win. Unions fight the fight for them, but they can't unionize the whole world.

In the first place I was at here, I learned it. When you're making something for an engineering team, the costs don't really matter as much as getting a new function and integrating well. After a product debuted and volumes went crazy, it was a matter of keeping up and just being here to be able to integrate it in. Once purchasing moves to purchasing and from development, and the final designs have been settled on, that's when price starts becoming important. The big runs are going overseas.

It's ok though, because those engineers that finalized whatever it is they're building are moving on to version 2, and they'll need to have someone here that can work with them to get items to specs. And the game continues on. The game, though expensive, continues here because of the track record. The true tech makers will prosper so long as they stay relevant. Everyone else goes up and down based on their ability to support. Finally, the government runs behind picking up the crumbs and trying to keep the marketplace fair.

In a sense, the government has many rules here, but it simply governs. And the while it's complicated, everyone has their own little A to B of what they need to do so they do it. Elections are a joke, as there's no real competition, but internally there's a division within the Democrats and when the moderates win, things go well, but it's a sideshow. Nobody cares. The State is working like it is supposed too overall, and that's good enough. No drama, no wild changing rules, but not a static unchanging governance either. If you're running a shady operation in California...you're going down at some point. Whether that's mistreating your employees, or using bad product substitute, or distributing improperly or simply not taking the time to ensure your product won't hurt others. The State is going to govern that.

The result is jobs. The result are huge swaths of urban areas where you can't buy a home for less than $1M and the mean or median family income well in excess of 6 figures. The result is continuing growth and outside investment pouring in from around the world. California isn't going to collapse. That's where the arrogance comes in. It's like Usain Bolt being told he's all wrong from people that used to run in high school or college. No we're not perfect....but that's not really the intention either. Imagine how many people would move here if we were perfect. The giant welfare net is ever changing. What works today won't work later. But it all sounds really good, and gives a necessary modicum of security in a place where people do not stay in their jobs start to finish.

If we were to decline, it would be because we can no longer get the world's best engineers (Muslim ban, tighter immigration restrictions) or the world's investment starts flowing in another direction (India's Modi succeeds in deregulation, Austin/Boston/NYC start attracting more engineers away). Hollywood's going to be hard to replace as is the climate.

So in talking collapse you're looking at either:
1. Foreign invasion
2. San Andreas movie style earthquake
3. Secession from the US/Tremendous punitive regulation from the US Fed like a trade war.

Barring that the outlook is pretty good for the area.
If the biggest threat is foreign invasion, California is sitting pretty.

I'd hate to see the country or countries that try to cross 3,000 miles across open ocean with the u.s navy and something like 16 of the worlds 23 aircraft carriers. And after taking that attrition, somehow having enough men and material left to make landfall, fight the us army and marines with a severely delayed or impossible chance of resupply or reinforcement.

Not to mention,any force large and concentrated enough could simply have a nuclear weapon detonated 200 miles in front of it with the massage that "if you come 1 mile closer, the next one won't miss." Or, "you will lose a major city each hour until the force turns back around".

The chance of successful foreign invasion is zero.
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Old 07-17-2017, 08:22 PM
 
1,760 posts, read 584,967 times
Reputation: 1786
Something else that not many people are mentioning, which will be a problem in California, is the tech industry is overdue for a correction. The majority of these companies operate in the red; Telsa, Uber, Lyft, Amazon, ABB, hundreds of others. At some point investors are going to say where's my return? Take Telsa for example, they could double productivity and would still be operating at a loss. It's basically a science project, not a for profit company. Take away their government subsidies and they would fold tomorrow. Calfornia has made terrible policy decisions that affect a lot of other industries. Take Agg for example; they made all their farmers retrofit their cows with anal tubes and fart bags for environmental reasons. California has some of the most farmable land in the country but stupid laws like this puts their farmers at a huge disadvantage so when their tech industry consolidates they cant rely on other industries to pick up the slack. Central planning has never worked.
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Old 07-17-2017, 09:08 PM
 
8,021 posts, read 6,235,593 times
Reputation: 12004
Quote:
Originally Posted by cttransplant85 View Post
Something else that not many people are mentioning, which will be a problem in California, is the tech industry is overdue for a correction. The majority of these companies operate in the red; Telsa, Uber, Lyft, Amazon, ABB, hundreds of others. At some point investors are going to say where's my return? Take Telsa for example, they could double productivity and would still be operating at a loss. It's basically a science project, not a for profit company. Take away their government subsidies and they would fold tomorrow. Calfornia has made terrible policy decisions that affect a lot of other industries. Take Agg for example; they made all their farmers retrofit their cows with anal tubes and fart bags for environmental reasons. California has some of the most farmable land in the country but stupid laws like this puts their farmers at a huge disadvantage so when their tech industry consolidates they cant rely on other industries to pick up the slack. Central planning has never worked.
Aside from the fact that Amazon is not operating in the red anymore and is turning record profits, this is only a fraction of the tech companies in the state, many of which are doing well. If the dot com bubble didn't pull the rug from under the industry it is hard to imagine what will.

As for the farming industry:

https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/art...ming-prospered
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Old 07-18-2017, 12:53 AM
 
3,606 posts, read 2,032,943 times
Reputation: 3335
Amazon isn't even based in California, though it has moderate-sized (by its standards) offices there.
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Old 07-18-2017, 07:26 AM
 
4,229 posts, read 1,911,784 times
Reputation: 3787
Quote:
Originally Posted by cttransplant85 View Post
Something else that not many people are mentioning, which will be a problem in California, is the tech industry is overdue for a correction.
What's "overdue for correction" is the babble-and-smirk disinformation media that lead people down the primrose path to complete misunderstanding of the world and how it works.
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Old 07-19-2017, 01:43 PM
 
Location: Paranoid State
12,685 posts, read 9,460,731 times
Reputation: 14953
Quote:
Originally Posted by kwong7 View Post
The owners of production (corporations) are far more wealthy and powerful than Karl Marx probably imagined.
Public corporations by and large are owned by public sector employees through their public sector pension funds, by private sector pension funds, by individuals in their 401(k)s, IRAs, and 403(b)s, and by individual investors in their regular accounts.

So what you're really saying is that The People are far more wealthy than Marx probably imagined.
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Old 07-19-2017, 02:32 PM
 
4,229 posts, read 1,911,784 times
Reputation: 3787
Some peculiar ideas about "ownership" there.
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Old 07-19-2017, 06:15 PM
 
1,705 posts, read 1,525,278 times
Reputation: 1201
Quote:
Originally Posted by Unsettomati View Post
Meanwhile, here in the real world - distinct from the feverish fantasies of the "Please, please, please let liberal California fail!" crowd - California sends a lot more $ to the federal treasury than it receives in return. Thus, California is one of the donor states upon which the weak and feeble states like Louisiana and Tennessee and South Dakota depend upon in order not to go belly-up.



https://taxfoundation.org/states-rely-most-federal-aid/

And now, back to your regularly scheduled insisting that California must fail, just 'cause that's what your dogma say has to happen. Bummer how the real world just doesn't jibe with the way you really want things to be, though, isn't it?
These numbers are meaningless.

Some states, SD, ND, OK, NM, MS, have large Native American populations living on reservations for which the federal government is treaty obliged to provide healthcare, underwrites tribal police and courts.

Other states, TX, OK, NM, GA, KS have large illegal immigrant populations who have children entitled by birth to US citizen benefits.

Other states have a low cost of living that inherently encourages people who are on SNAP or disability not to move away and perpetuate the cycle.

Show me an apples to apples comparison of working stiff people across state lines and I will consider the implication of federal aid to states.
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